Anticipatory governance framework explores future rule changes in quantum technology

Governing the Rule Space. Ruliology, Computational Irreducibility and Anticipatory Governance of Quantum Technologies

Computation and LanguageComputers and Society

Summary

Emerging technologies like quantum computing are hard to regulate because laws often come too late. The authors propose a new way to think about regulation as exploring possible rules and how they might change over time instead of trying to predict the exact future. They introduce a framework called ruliology to help track rules, transformations, and paths regulations could take. They also consider ideas from computation about unpredictable complexity but don’t assume legal systems are always unpredictable. Their ideas are discussed using the example of Europe's quantum technology strategy.

What this means in practice

  • For policy makers: Guide the development of institutional capabilities to adapt regulations in emerging technology fields like quantum computing.
  • For technology governance teams: Support scenario-based exploration of potential regulatory changes to anticipate governance challenges in complex technology spaces.

A position paper. It proposes an approach and reports no results.

Authors

Antonio Felice Uricchio, Francesco Scagliola

Abstract

The regulation of emerging technologies is often conceived as a strategy of catching up, because legislators arrive too late. Yet gathering signals, constructing scenarios and adapting rules to an anticipated future are fundamental tasks for those entrusted with governance, including the governance of rules themselves. The literature on so-called future law has already shown that anticipation means building institutional capabilities rather than predicting outcomes precisely (anticipatory governance). Taking this premise as its starting point, this article proposes to understand regulation as an exploration of the transformations that may occur. The Ruliological Framework for Anticipatory Regulation distinguishes rules, transformations and trajectories, assessing alternatives and possible developments. Within this approach, computational irreducibility is adopted conditionally, not as a demonstrated property of legal systems. The Quantum Europe Strategy provides a case study and further grounds for reflection.
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