Optimal online selection rules for multi-attribute best choices
The Pareto Secretary Problem
Information TheoryData Structures and Algorithms
Summary
This paper studies how to choose the best option when options have multiple qualities and arrive one by one in a random order. The authors analyze how likely it is to fail to pick an option that is not worse than any other in all qualities while improving at least one. They find the best strategies to minimize failure and show how to use partial ranking information effectively, even if qualities are correlated. They also explore how dependence between qualities affects selection difficulty and give formulas for tuning selection rules.
What this means in practice
- •For online marketplace developers: Design systems to select top multi-attribute offers in real-time to optimize buyer satisfaction without full information on all offers.
- •For multi-criteria decision software engineers: Build tools that identify Pareto-optimal choices from streaming data with partial order information and correlated attributes.
A theory result. No direct application yet.
Authors
Andrés Cristi, Yilin Kong, Jiechen Zhang
Abstract
The Pareto secretary problem asks for online selection of a Pareto-maximal observation from an i.i.d. sample: no other observation is at least as good in every coordinate and strictly better in one. For every fixed dimension $d\ge2$ and independent continuous coordinates, the optimal failure probability is of order $1/[(\log n)^{d-1}\log\log n]$, both with full information and with coordinate ranks alone. A deterministic rank rule attains the optimal leading term uniformly over the marginals. For every fixed positive definite Gaussian covariance, the same failure order holds, with a leading constant depending on the correlation matrix, and a rank-based rule attains the optimal leading failure probability without knowing the Gaussian parameters. In both models, we determine the optimal fixed cutoff and its leading failure constant; its failure probability exceeds the unrestricted optimum by a factor $Θ_d((\log\log n)^2)$. Under arbitrary dependence, a fixed joint density with uniform marginals can instead have optimal full-information success tending to approximately $0.58$. The proof uses the scarcity of observations with very small domination probability to bound every stopping rule. A matching rule selects a currently maximal point when this probability is below a threshold that increases as time runs out. Coordinate ranks from an initial sample provide sufficiently accurate estimates to preserve the optimal leading failure probability. For singular Gaussian distributions with known correlations, we characterize the optimal failure asymptotics attainable using ranks. Singular dependence can make every observation acceptable or recover the difficulty of selecting a single best point.