Uncertainty Quantification Study of a Re-entry Breakup
2026-07-03 • Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science
Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science
AI summaryⓘ
The authors studied how a special sensor capsule, called a breakup recorder, behaves when a spacecraft breaks apart during atmospheric re-entry. They modeled the recorder as a solid object facing extreme conditions like high speeds and collisions inside the breaking spacecraft. Using the case of the Edoardo Amaldi ATV3 and its REBR4 recorder, they explored different scenarios and uncertainties to understand what likely happened. Their findings suggest the recorder probably detached before the main breakup, rather than the spacecraft spinning very fast. This helps improve knowledge about what happens when spacecraft burn up in the atmosphere.
atmospheric re-entrybreakup recorderhypersonic aerothermodynamicscollision dynamicsspacecraft fragmentationuncertainty quantificationrigid body dynamicsAutomated Transfer Vehicle (ATV)REBR (Re-Entry Breakup Recorder)space debris
Authors
Tommy Williamson, Beatriz Jilete, Emma Stevenson, Stijn Lemmens, Massimiliano Vasile, Marco Fossati
Abstract
The uncertainty associated with breakup events that occur during atmospheric re-entry is severe. Limited attempts to gain a better knowledge of this environment have included the use of breakup recorder-type sensor capsules that are designed to escape the demising debris cloud and survive in order to transmit data. This work models a breakup recorder undergoing this process as a rigid body experiencing hypersonic aerothermodynamic loads alongside collision dynamics with components of the demising container vehicle. The re-entry of the Edoardo Amaldi Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV3) and the recorder placed on board, the Re-Entry Breakup Recorder 4 (REBR4) is studied in the present work. After a deterministic exploration of the nature of the dynamics of the problem, uncertainty quantification is performed to investigate the effects of initial spacecraft state, REBR detachment conditions and spacecraft fragmentation states. From this data, inferences about the nature of the real re-entry event indicate that detachment of the recorder from the cargo bay prior to main breakup events is more likely than the alternate hypothesis of the container vehicle experiencing high rotation rates.