The causal relation between off-street parking and electric vehicle adoption in Scotland
2026-04-10 • Machine Learning
Machine Learning
AI summaryⓘ
The authors studied why some households adopt electric vehicles (EVs) more than others, focusing on the role of having private parking and income. They found that having off-street parking helps those already able to afford an EV to adopt one faster, but it doesn’t bring many new people into the market. Income is the main barrier, as richer households are much more likely to buy EVs regardless of parking. The authors also showed that simpler models wrongly exaggerate the effect of parking because richer people tend to have both parking and money for EVs. They suggest policies should both make EVs more affordable and improve charging access for interested households in cities.
electric vehicle adoptionoff-street parkingprobabilistic causal frameworkconfounding factorssocio-economic disparityaffordability ceilingselection biashome charging infrastructurepolicy interventionsmarket participation
Authors
Bernardino D'Amico, Achille Fonzone, Emma Hart
Abstract
The transition to electric mobility hinges on maximising aggregate adoption while also facilitating equitable access. This study examines whether the 'charging divide' between households with and without off-street parking reflects a genuine infrastructure constraint or a by-product of socio-economic disparity. Moving beyond conventional predictive models, we apply a probabilistic causal framework to a nationally representative dataset of Scottish households, enabling estimation of policy interventions while explicitly neutralising the confounding effect of other causal factors. The results reveal a structural hierarchy in the EV adoption process. Private off-street parking functions as a conversion catalyst: enabling access to home-charging increases the probability of EV ownership from 3.3% to 5.6% (a 70% relative, 2.3 percentage point absolute increase). However, this effect primarily accelerates households already economically positioned to purchase an EV rather than recruiting new entrants. By contrast, household income operates as the fundamental affordability ceiling. A causal contrast between lower- and higher-income strata, shows a reduction in market non-participation by 23.1 percentage points, identifying financial capacity as the principal gatekeeper to entering the EV transition funnel. Crucially, the analysis demonstrates that standard observational models overstate the isolated effect of off-street parking infrastructure. The apparent effect emerges from selection bias: higher-income households are disproportionately likely to possess both private parking and the means to purchase EVs. These findings support a dual-track policy strategy: lowering the affordability ceiling for non-participants through financial instruments, while addressing EV home-charging access for the 'latent intent' cohort in high-density urban contexts.