The Statistical Profitability of Social Media Sports Betting Influencers: Evidence from the Nigerian Market
2026-04-09 • Computers and Society
Computers and Society
AI summaryⓘ
The authors studied if following popular Nigerian sports betting influencers on social media is a good way to make money. They tracked thousands of bets shared by these influencers and checked the real outcomes using official betting records. The study found that both the influencers and their followers actually lost money on these bets, contradicting the wealthy image the influencers show online. Their analysis suggests that relying on these tips can lead to significant financial losses in Nigeria's growing gambling market.
sports bettinginfluencerssocial mediasurvivorship biasstaking strategiesrisk assessmentbetting oddsconsumer protectiongambling marketNigeria
Authors
Kayode Makinde, Oluwatimileyin Onasanya, Frances Adelakun
Abstract
This study examines whether following popular Nigerian sports betting influencers on social media is a financially sound strategy. To avoid the survivorship bias that occurs when influencers only share their winning bets, we tracked 5,467 pre-match betting slips from three prominent tipsters on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram. We verified the outcomes against official Stake.com records, resulting in a final dataset covering approximately $4.8 million in tracked bets. We analyzed raw performance, assessed risk based on odds sizes, and applied four common staking strategies (Flat, Inverse, Square Root, and Fixed Return) to simulate realistic follower outcomes. The results show a sharp contrast between the wealth these influencers display online and the actual financial results. The influencers themselves collectively lost 25.24% on their promoted bets, while a follower who staked the same amount on every tip would lose 38.27% on their investment. Across all tested strategies, following these influencers consistently led to significant financial losses. These findings raise serious consumer protection concerns in Nigeria's expanding gambling market.