wildfire monitoring teams

Abstract: Wildfires pose severe risks to human life, ecosystems, and property. This study presents a machine learning approach for wildfire detection from GOES ABI imagery. A CatBoost model was trained on a large dataset with thousands of ABI images and over 300,000 matching VIIRS fire detections. An evaluation on a separate dataset across five regions showed that the learned CatBoost model outperformed the operational GOES Fire Detection and Characterization (FDC) product. It achieved higher precision, recall, and F1 scores both within and outside the training area. The CatBoost model achieved F1 scores that were 0.16 to 0.38 higher than the GOES FDC in all regions. In addition, out of 51 historical fire events, the CatBoost detected 26 fires before both VIIRS and GOES FDC, compared to only six earlier detections by the GOES FDC. Importantly, the CatBoost model achieved accurate wildfire detection also during nighttime, whereas the GOES FDC obtained very low recall values, around 0.03. This study demonstrates that machine learning models may offer significant improvements over existing geostationary fire products, including higher accuracy, fewer false alarms, and earlier detection.

Abstract: Power-grid digital twins must combine data-driven prediction with physically meaningful state evolution while preserving the provenance of environmental observations. This paper presents an early-stage EnergyEminence testbed that couples an IEEE 118-bus-style graph-temporal predictor, nonlinear AC cascade simulation, and operator-dashboard-like temporal replay. In addition, we introduce a shared bounded calibration that converts wildfire-detection confidence and spatial extent into source-comparable wildfire interpretable and explainable evidence. We then evaluate it with visually diverse fire and hard-negative videos. Sixteen synthetic environmental videos are curated to generate 160 source-tracked grid scenarios, and a source-video-disjoint test yields 10 true positives, 8 false positives, 22 true negatives, and no false negatives. The errors occur in stressed, non-cascading scenarios conditioned on an unseen growing-fire source. Our diagnostic then reveals environmental shortcut learning that is obscured by scenario-level random splitting. The paper therefore contributes a data-centric and inspectable evaluation workflow for multimodal grid-resilience models, together with evidence supporting separation of environmental alerting from electrical cascade inference

Abstract: Producing accurate annotations for deep learning based image segmentation is both costly and labor intensive. This challenge is especially evident in wildland fire applications, where accurately labeled datasets are scarce due to the difficulty of collecting and annotating dynamic fire scenes. To address this problem, our previous work introduced the Centralized Copy-Paste Data Augmentation (CCPDA) method for semantic segmentation of wildland fire imagery, which generates artificial training samples by randomly pasting fire clusters from source images onto target images. However, random placement can produce contextually unrealistic scenes, such as fire burning on asphalt. In this paper, we present a context-aware strategy designed specifically to improve data quality and realism in small multiclass wildland fire datasets, ensuring that augmented samples remain contextually meaningful. The proposed method restricts fire placement to semantically valid target regions and selects the location whose Ash-Vegetation composition most closely matches the source context. This approach preserves existing fire regions in the target image, prevents unrealistic placements, and maintains contextual accuracy by generating images that resemble real wildland fire scenes. We evaluate the Context-Aware CCPDA strategy through numerical analysis and comparisons with other augmentation methods by a weighted sum-based multi-objective optimization (MOO) approach. The results confirm that the context-aware data augmentation strategy leads to improved segmentation performance and contextual realism, outperforming other augmentation procedures.

Abstract: An airborne sensor on a contested link cannot send video, so the appealing move is to send findings instead and report the ratio between the two. We evaluate a gated sensing pipeline that does this, combining learned object detection and image-text comparison with deterministic scheduling, gating, evidence accumulation and transmission rules. On staged footage with the semantic stage live it sends 38,736 bits over 211 s, a reduction of 41,977x, and names 1 of 4 staged events with no false report. That detection has since been superseded: a correction to how the tracker measures speed removed the measurement artefact the normality model had been learning from, and the flight no longer warms. Under the corrected code the pipeline names 1 of 7 staged events across four flights, and we report both. On a control flight where nothing was staged it reports nothing, a reduction of 155,830x: the largest number in the study and the least informative, because a reduction ratio measures the scene. The mechanisms that produce the reduction also decide which observations ever reach a decision, so the two cannot be reported apart. We give a tick-level trace of one flight (3,187 rows) that places each of three missed events at the stage where it stopped progressing: one produced no track, one failed the structural place test at 0.129, and one passed 539 structural ticks but reached only 3.192 against a boundary of 3.807. We also report one instance of a known failure mode, an online normality model absorbing the object it will later judge, measured against the threshold that object then failed. The evidence is one detection and six misses across four staged flights, beside one clean control, and we treat it as a case study. We give the reproduction protocol and generated results, identify which supporting artifacts are not distributed, and state which experiments did not run.