Papers for

weather data engineers

Papers whose findings have a practical use for this group, as judged from the abstract. Open a paper to read what it means in practice.

Electricity market forecasts can leak future data unknowingly

The Hidden Look-Ahead: Point-in-Time Leakage in Electricity Market Data

Abstract: Empirical studies of electricity prices routinely state that their models use only information available at the time of the trading decision. For weather-driven forecasts drawn from commercial archives, this condition is harder to meet than it appears, and whether it holds can change over time. We identify three timing pitfalls. A forecast run is labelled by the issue time of its weather model, but becomes available hours later and keeps changing after publication. Auction gates follow local clock time, while archives use UTC. Outturn series are revised after publication without earlier values being kept. Using the timestamps of 128,656 forecast runs from ten weather-model configurations, matched to the day-ahead and first intraday auction gates in Great Britain over 2022-2026, we find that selecting "the latest run issued before the gate" picks a run not yet published at the gate on more than 99% of delivery days for six of the ten configurations at one of the two gates. For GFS at the day-ahead gate, the share is 0.6% in winter and 99.8% in summer. The exposure also shifts as publication delays drift, and an action margin of a few minutes can cost a full six-hour forecast cycle. The wrongly selected inputs differ materially from those available at the gate, but their apparent accuracy gain ranges from -9% to +24% across variables, models, gates and seasons, so its effect cannot be assumed and must be measured. We argue that point-in-time correctness is a dynamic property of the data pipeline, and propose a protocol that audits it from timestamps before any model is fitted.

Sun 18 OctMachine LearningComputational Engineering, Finance, and Science
The gist
Forecasts of electricity prices often claim to use only the information available at the time decisions are made. However, the authors show that timing issues in how weather data and market times are recorded can cause models to accidentally use data from the future. They studied many weather forecast runs and electricity market auctions and found that in most cases, the chosen weather forecast wasn't actually available when the market decision had to be made. This hidden data leakage can affect the accuracy of predictions, sometimes improving or worsening it, so it needs careful measurement and monitoring.
Open → 2610.25389v1

Earth system data and language are aligned with EarthAlign and MeteoLIP

EarthAlign: Learning Language-Aligned Representations of Earth System Data

Abstract: Interpreting Earth system conditions is central to understanding environmental risks and informing decisions across weather- and climate-sensitive sectors. Existing multimodal weather systems primarily target task-specific prediction, generation, or question answering, while general-purpose alignment between Earth system data and language remains underexplored due to the limited availability of diverse language supervision grounded in meteorological conditions. To fill this gap, we introduce EarthAlign, a large-scale dataset with broad geographic coverage spanning 2000-2024 that combines 10 expert-curated natural event and disaster data sources with climatology-derived normal-weather samples. Each sample includes temporal and geospatial information and four grounded caption styles aligned with 63-variable ERA5 meteorological data. Building on EarthAlign, we introduce MeteoLIP, a dual-encoder framework for learning aligned meteorology-language representations. MeteoLIP incorporates MetTok, which uses a geolocation- and time-conditioned query to aggregate variable-specific patch embeddings into a compact sequence of meteorology tokens. To comprehensively assess Earth system multimodal representations, we introduce three downstream tasks: cross-modal retrieval, weather-condition classification, and physical variable estimation. Our experiments show that MeteoLIP improves upon the corresponding CLIP and SigLIP baselines across these tasks. Further analyses highlight the importance of meteorological input, temporal and geospatial conditioning, and multi-style supervision for meteorology-language alignment. Thus, EarthAlign and MeteoLIP provide a foundation for learning and evaluating language-aligned representations of Earth system data. Our code, dataset, and weights are publicly available at https://github.com/mbzuai-oryx/EarthAlign.

Sat 10 OctComputer Vision and Pattern RecognitionArtificial IntelligenceMachine Learning
The gist
Understanding Earth's weather and climate is important for many decisions, but it is hard to connect detailed weather data with natural language descriptions. The authors created EarthAlign, a large dataset linking weather data with expert-written captions about events and normal conditions from 2000 to 2024. They also developed MeteoLIP, a computer model that learns to connect weather data with language. Their tests show this model works better than earlier methods for tasks like matching weather with text and estimating conditions from language.
Open → 2610.14624v1