traffic simulation engineers

Abstract: Game-theoretic models can resolve vehicle interactions without hand-written priority rules, but whether they describe human drivers once calibrated has rarely been tested. This study formulates a general-sum differential game of vehicle interactions at urban intersections, calibrates it to observed driving, and evaluates it on data not used for calibration. Each vehicle minimizes a cost that combines speed tracking, adherence to a map-derived lane route, control effort, gap keeping based on the intelligent driver model, a predictive conflict term, and a contact barrier, while perceiving the other vehicles with a delay. The game is solved with a feedback iterative linear-quadratic algorithm, and ten behavioral parameters per vehicle are calibrated by Bayesian optimization on trajectories recorded at four intersections in Washington, D.C. The calibrated game reproduces the trajectories of 819 vehicles with a mean position error of 1.00 m. When only each vehicle's route is known, as in a simulator, it is the most accurate of the compared models on 96 held-out vehicles (7.42 m), and ten-fold cross-validation shows that it is significantly more accurate than calibrated SUMO (by 3.61 m), an inverse reinforcement learning model (by 0.93 m), and independent and cooperative variants of the same model (by 0.33 and 0.32 m). The solutions, computed in 2.1 s for a typical interaction, are verified approximate equilibria. Finally, the conflict and steering weights, which the data do not identify, can be set from safety and comfort targets; together with a stiffer contact barrier, this removes the collisions that otherwise occur in 43% of tight closed-loop conflicts.

Abstract: Recent multimodal large language models (MLLMs) can perceive a traffic scene, reason about it, and propose a driving action within a single model. However, existing MLLM-based drivers reason from scratch at each frame and commit to a single explanation, discarding earlier hypotheses about the scene. When the scene is ambiguous, the agent locks in on the wrong interpretation and acts on it before evidence accumulates. In this paper, we propose DriveMind, an MLLM-based driving framework that keeps several hypotheses about the scene alive at the same time and updates their weights as new frames arrive. Inspired by particle filtering, DriveMind propagates each hypothesis through a VLM, scores it against the current observation, and resamples to maintain diversity. On Bench2Drive, adding belief tracking to the same driving pipeline improves the Driving Score (DS) from 68.50 to 81.37 and the Success Rate (SR) from 41.36% to 54.09%. The largest gains occur on ambiguous scenarios such as unsignalized intersections (+20.0 DS) and oncoming-traffic interactions (+20.5 DS). Beyond the overall metrics, DriveMind also improves fine-grained interactive driving abilities such as merging, emergency braking, and give-way.

Abstract: Car-following (CF) models is a fundamental component of microscopic traffic simulation and underpin the analysis of collective traffic dynamics, while its modeling becomes more challenging due to diverse human driving behaviors and the increasing presence of automated vehicle. Analytical CF models offer interpretable representations of longitudinal vehicle interactions, but their prescribed functional structures may limit the representation of heterogeneous driving behavior. This study proposes an agent-centered, physics-aware framework for the empirical discovery of CF laws from multi-source trajectory data. The framework iteratively combines agent-guided hypothesis generation, informed by traffic flow knowledge and state-dependent reconstruction errors, with evolutionary symbolic search and physics-aware multi-objective evaluation. Using NGSIM US-101, highD, and exiD, the framework discovers the Adaptive Equilibrium Response Model (AERM), which couples state-dependent relative-speed response with spacing-dependent equilibrium-speed restoration. AERM admits analytical equilibrium speed-spacing and flow-density relationships; its stability conditions are derived for the zero-delay formulation, and platoon simulations examine disturbance propagation. Evaluated against seven classical CF models on Shanghai naturalistic driving data, NGSIM I-80, and Waymo trajectories, AERM attains the lowest spacing and speed reconstruction errors under trajectory-specific calibration, reducing spacing RMSE by 9.11%, 7.59%, and 21.73% relative to the strongest baselines, and remains competitive under dataset-level shared parameters. These results demonstrate the fitting flexibility and analytical tractability of the discovered CF law, providing an interpretable basis for microscopic traffic simulation.

Abstract: Realistic traffic simulation and autonomous planning both depend on modeling interactions among heterogeneous road users whose dynamics, constraints, and behaviors differ fundamentally. Existing approaches predominantly learn realistic interaction behavior from large-scale human driving demonstrations. In this work, we ask whether such behavior can instead emerge purely through self-play. We present SHRED, a framework that jointly trains vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists through large-scale heterogeneous self-play from random initialization, without demonstrations or logged-trajectory replay. SHRED combines type-specific dynamics and objectives with procedural scenario generation and per-agent randomization, allowing diverse behaviors to emerge through closed-loop interaction. On the Waymo Open Sim Agents Challenge (WOSAC), SHRED jointly controls all three road-user types and outperforms both the closest demonstration-free self-play baseline and prior self-play methods that use demonstration-trained reference policies. Policies trained only on nuPlan map geometry retain comparable realism under zero-shot evaluation on Waymo. For planning, SHRED outperforms all compared planners on the interaction-heavy InterPlan benchmark. Controlled ablations show that heterogeneity in self-play improves both traffic realism and planning performance, with particularly large planning gains in interaction-heavy scenarios. Together, these results establish heterogeneous procedural self-play as a scalable, demonstration-free paradigm for learning realistic and interactive traffic behavior.

Abstract: Accurate simulation is crucial for autonomous driving development, yet capturing real-world traffic complexity remains challenging. Existing simulators that rely on predefined rules or static data playback struggle with dynamic traffic. CRITICAL uses real traffic data and a large language model (LLM) to adjust the initial simulation configuration, but the simulated distribution still diverges from real traffic as the rollout evolves. We propose REARL, a closed-loop simulation enhancement framework that integrates real traffic data with LLMs. Real traffic data are clustered, and each cluster center is used as a representative scenario that provides typical real-world traffic patterns for the LLM. A timed sliding-window detector then monitors discrepancies in vehicle speed distribution and mean spacing between pairs of vehicles. If a metric exceeds a threshold, the LLM adjusts vehicle decision-making; otherwise the existing controller is kept. The LLM also selects a matching real vehicle from a traffic snapshot and modulates the simulated vehicle with reference to that real action. In a controlled HighD highway setting, compared with the CRITICAL baseline and a PPO-based learning baseline, REARL reduces the Hellinger distance for speed distributions to 0.3067 and the MAPE for mean spacing to 0.8371, while achieving a time headway (THW) of 22.8575 and a lane change rate of 0.0708.

Abstract: Travel demand forecasting is essential for evaluating large-scale infrastructure projects, yet the traditional sequential four-step process can produce inconsistencies across trip distribution, mode choice, and traffic assignment. Although combined models address these inconsistencies, their practical use has been limited by simplified behavioral assumptions, computational burden, and the lack of a unified parameter-estimation framework. We propose a convex programming approach that integrates destination, mode, and route choices within a hierarchical extended logit model. The optimal primal solution characterizes the joint travel-demand equilibrium, while the optimal dual variables recover taste coefficients, alternative-specific constants, and destination- and mode-level scale parameters. The model captures mode correlations through nested logit and route overlap through path-size logit. Its convex structure provides global optimality guarantees and enables efficient solution using off-the-shelf conic solvers. Observed travel patterns are incorporated through moment and conditional-entropy constraints, while the route-level dispersion parameter is calibrated separately using partial link counts. Numerical experiments on eight benchmark networks demonstrate the scalability and computational efficiency of the formulation.

Abstract: Local pedestrian-vehicle forecasting spans heterogeneous physical scales: pedestrians combine root locomotion with articulated motion, whereas vehicles are rigid bodies described by kinematic state and oriented extent. Existing road-agent forecasters typically omit pedestrian articulation, while pose forecasters leave vehicle futures outside the learned rollout. We introduce PV-WM, a history-only world model over structured post-perception tracks. It recurrently advances pedestrian root motion, 15-joint articulation, and learned vehicle states within a synchronized heterogeneous state. The generated pedestrian and vehicle chunks supply the next recurrent boundary; vehicle boxes are reconstructed from predicted center and heading with observed extent, and P-V geometry is recomputed after every transition. Relative to a matched one-shot complete-state predictor, recurrent execution reduces Root ADE by 12.7% and MPJPE by 14.8%. Feedback interventions show that later predictions depend on the content, temporal order, and pedestrian identity of generated articulation. Across 824 aligned Waymo contexts, with 797 providing valid future vehicle support, PV-WM reduces Root ADE by 5.2%, MPJPE by 7.6%, P-V distance error by 11.9%, and oriented-box closest-approach error by 5.8% relative to a validation-selected Modular Specialist. The single-network model uses 57.1% fewer parameters, 96.5% lower average FLOPs per local scene, and 25.5% lower measured p95 latency. PV-WM unifies this heterogeneous future state while preserving type-specific pedestrian and vehicle dynamics.

Abstract: Reasoning is a promising route to the generalization that autonomous driving requires in the long tail, as it can infer how the elements of a scene depend on one another and traverse those dependencies to conclusions beyond what is observed. Yet it is hard to tell whether a model's conclusions follow the scene's dependencies, because no driving representation makes them explicit enough to test against. Text-based reasoning traces lack spatio-temporal grounding, spatio-temporal scene graphs lack causal links, and reasoning annotations at scale are increasingly model-generated and hard to verify. To this end, we introduce CASCADE (Causal Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Driving Environments), which encompasses two components: (1) a structured scene representation for reasoning in driving scenes and (2) a human-annotated dataset built on it. For every actor that interacts with the ego vehicle, the CASCADE representation records frame-by-frame, for as long as the actor is visible, what action is taken, where it occurs, and how it depends on the actions and states of others. The resulting structure makes reasoning predictions machine-verifiable: they can be scored against it element by element, without relying on (M)LLM judges. The CASCADE dataset provides comprehensive human annotations for 2,066 driving clips of the PhysicalAI dataset, with over 34K elements that establish the spatio-temporal and causal context of each scene, including 8.6K time-stamped ego and agent actions, 3.7K causal links and 2.9K potential influences, and 6.1K annotations for agents, objects, traffic lights, and environments. Being entirely human-annotated, CASCADE provides the reference for this comparison: benchmarking the reasoning abilities of Physical AI models, and verifying the quality of automatically generated reasoning labels. The CASCADE dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/nvidia/cascade.