traffic management teams

Abstract: Accurate time series forecasting (TSF) is essential for Web applications, such as traffic monitoring and online resource management. Recent advances in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have shown promising performance in TSF. However, existing LLM-based TSF methods largely optimize the overall forecasting objective while overlooking temporal pattern imbalance (TPI), where different temporal patterns occur at highly unequal frequencies. Our empirical analysis reveals that TPI is prevalent across widely used TSF benchmarks, with substantially higher forecasting errors on less frequent patterns. To address this issue, we propose IMRouter (Imbalance-aware Temporal Pattern Routing), a novel framework that mitigates TPI-induced biases in both temporal representation learning and cross-modal alignment. Specifically, IMRouter introduces Pattern-Adaptive Temporal Representation Learning (PATR), which leverages gradient conflict and local gradient density to guide expert specialization. By penalizing incompatible expert assignments with density-aware weighting, PATR reduces the dominance of frequent optimization signals in router training. Furthermore, Routing-Guided Semantic Alignment (RGSA) transfers the pattern-specific knowledge learned by the router to cross-modal alignment through mutual information maximization, preserving distinctive temporal information across different patterns. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of IMRouter, particularly in improving forecasting performance on less frequent temporal patterns.

Abstract: Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) traffic-signal controllers may use vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) reports, exposing their perception layer to false-data injection. Existing demonstrations typically assume either white-box access to the controller's weights or full observability of the traffic state. We study the impact of a weaker and more realistic adversary who has no access to the RL model and whose traffic observations are limited to her own approach. This black-box, minimally informed attacker trains an imitation surrogate of the controller. She then crafts bounded fake reports, restricted to inflating vehicle counts on her own approach, that transfer to the real controller. We demonstrate that despite the loss of accuracy relative to an attacker who can observe the entire state and action space, this limited attacker can significantly increase the average waiting time for other approaches while barely changing the waiting time on her own approach, i.e. externalizing the added delay onto the other approaches. Because the only realizable move is to inflate one's own reported queue, we find that a zero-knowledge attacker that simply reports the maximum feasible queue is as damaging as the surrogate-based one, while an unstructured random inflation is not: the surrogate is not required to reproduce the degradation, and the exposed vulnerability is the V2I sensing channel itself. The surrogate's role is directional control, selecting a disruptive or a selfish objective at the same budget. The attack persists under +/-20% uniform demand variation. Finally, on a common per-lane budget we place the attacker on a knowledge ladder against white-box adversaries, and find the black-box surrogate matches a realizable white-box attacker that uses the victim's own gradients; only abandoning realizability raises the damage further.

Abstract: Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication can improve road safety and traffic efficiency, yet its deployment remains limited by the need for dedicated communication hardware and supporting infrastructure. Meanwhile, production vehicles are already widely equipped with millimeter-wave radars for sensing. To unlock their communication potential, this paper presents RadarCom, a software-defined system that enables direct radar-to-radar communication on unmodified commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) automotive mmWave radars while preserving their native sensing functionality. The key insight is that mutual inter-radar interference, traditionally viewed as harmful, can be repurposed as a communication carrier. Based on this insight, RadarCom introduces slope-mismatch-based discovery, adaptive chirp synchronization, differential coding on range-FFT, and sensing-aware interference suppression to enable simultaneous communication and sensing without hardware modification, waveform redesign, or infrastructure support. We implement RadarCom on TI AWR2243 automotive radars and evaluate it under static, dynamic, and challenging real-world conditions. Results show an average effective data rate of 5.55 kbps with symbol error rates below 1.5%, while maintaining sensing F1 scores of up to 80.5% during concurrent communication. These results demonstrate the feasibility of transforming commodity automotive radars into dual-purpose communication and sensing devices.

Abstract: We evaluate ErouVe, a vehicular eco-routing protocol in which roadside units (RSUs) collect per-segment travel-time and CO2 reports from passing vehicles and answer route requests with the lowest-cost alternative, across a range of road architectures and traffic scenarios. We conduct the evaluation with a working implementation of the protocol inside Veins, adapted to drive SUMO's own router rather than a hand-rolled shortest-path search, on a network offering a short, signal-controlled route and a longer, signal-free bypass, under two traffic scenarios. This evaluation reveals clear strengths and weaknesses of the protocol. Under light, uncongested traffic, ErouVe's fleet-wide effect is light. Under traffic dense enough to stress the signalized route's throughput and produce a real, growing queue, the same protocol succeeds a medium fleet-wide CO2 reduction, with diverted vehicles individually saving even more fuels. We use these findings to propose three targeted corrective methods; a knowledge-gated cost-acceptance rule, a diversion-locking rule, and a distance-normalized CO2 cost function, that respectively address a cold-start knowledge asymmetry, decision flapping under noisy crowd-sourced data, and a per-second CO2 metric that rewards idling. Each of these weaknesses are generic pitfalls for any crowd-sourced routing signal and all proposed methods measurably restore protocol effectiveness.

Abstract: Traffic agencies need current and near-future speeds on every link of their network, but their fixed sensors cover only part of it. We study joint nowcasting and next-hour forecasting of hourly speeds on all 4{,}127 directional freeway links of the Dallas--Fort Worth region from sensors on 643 links (15.6%). Historical probe-vehicle data supervise every link in training; only sensor readings are used at inference. We call this setting probe-supervised sparse sensing. We propose GCRN+, a graph convolutional recurrent network that predicts deviations from a historical speed profile. It combines a parameter-free, direction-aware kernel interpolation of sensor anomalies, used as input features and as an output baseline, with a diffusion-convolutional GRU on the directed road graph, a low-rank adaptive graph and learnable link embeddings. It scales linearly with network size and trains on a CPU. Sensor readings are emulated from probe speeds, which isolates spatio-temporal inference from detector calibration. On four held-out test days, GCRN+ attains an RMSE of 2.21~mph for the current hour and 2.39~mph for the next hour on unsensored links, against 3.23~mph for the historical average. The best baselines that use the same interpolation features reach 2.53 and 2.75~mph. Adapted recent models without these features (STID, STAEformer, ImputeFormer, MoGERNN) reach at best 2.54 and 2.53~mph; this comparison is between complete pipelines rather than architectures. GCRN+ is best in every distance band except links not connected to any sensor through the road graph. Ablations within one recurrent backbone attribute most of the gain to the link embeddings and the adaptive graph, which can be trained because probe labels exist for every link. For congestion detection on unsensored links, recall rises from 77\% (historical average) and 86% (best competitor) to 89% at aprecision of 0.94.

Abstract: We study stationary discrete-time mean-field games with finite state and action spaces under the average-reward criterion, with an entropy-regularized objective and population-dependent dynamics and rewards. Under a minorization condition, the soft Q-operator is a span-seminorm contraction for the full transition kernel, so relative value iteration does not require the minorizing measure. When the Lipschitz constant of the kernel is below the minorization mass and the temperature exceeds an explicit threshold, the equilibrium fixed-point operator is a contraction: an equilibrium exists, its population distribution is unique, and a fixed-point iteration converges to it geometrically. We then learn the equilibrium model-free from a simulator, combining soft Q-learning at a fixed population distribution with an empirical transition kernel. We prove a finite-sample bound for soft Q-learning in the span seminorm, with temperature-independent constants, and derive convergence rates for the learned population distribution and policy. A congestion-aware routing game illustrates the results.

Abstract: Roadside 4D occupancy forecasting predicts future semantic occupancy in a fixed infrastructure coordinate system. Roadside scenes are globally structured yet locally evolving, requiring comprehensive scene-level context while precisely modeling sparse localized motion. However, existing forecasting paradigms struggle to tackle both requirements. To address this limitation, we propose InfraWorld, a world model formulating roadside occupancy forecasting as selective state evolution. InfraWorld maintains a dense BEV state for the complete scene and persistent motion queries for moving regions, assigning complementary states to global context and local dynamics. Specifically, we propose Dynamic Query Initiation (DQI) to initialize queries in regions supported by motion in the observed history. During rollout, the dense state is updated through Long--Short Temporal Fusion (LST), which combines short-term adjacent-frame continuity with long-term motion trends to preserve stable context while capturing scene evolution. Motion-Aware Query Injection (MAQI) then refines the queries and injects confidence-weighted query information into corresponding BEV tokens, enabling targeted dynamic updates without perturbing global context. Together, InfraWorld concentrates predictive capacity on evolving traffic regions. Extensive experiments on the InfraOcc and Occ3D--nus datasets demonstrate that InfraWorld achieves state-of-the-art performance for roadside 4D occupancy forecasting while retaining its effectiveness under ego-centric settings. Code will be released.

Abstract: Traffic density estimation from camera feeds requires connecting visual perception with short-horizon forecasting. We present a two-stage pipeline that combines vehicle detection and tracking with a spatial logic layer, followed by a temporal estimator. The spatial layer filters bounding boxes by their overlap with a precomputed road mask and extracts per-frame traffic features. LSTM, GRU, and Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) estimators use these features to predict five future steps from a ten-frame input window. We benchmark ten detector variants from six families on a dataset of 5,716 annotated frames using a single NVIDIA GPU. YOLOv5l achieves the highest mAP@50:95 of 0.524 at 56 frames per second, while YOLOv8n reaches 258 frames per second at 0.487 mAP@50:95; these rates measure detector inference without tracking or spatial filtering. Temporal evaluation on 29,243 held-out windows yields aggregate R-squared values of 0.858 for GRU, 0.856 for LSTM, and 0.840 for TCN. These metrics measure forecasts of detector-derived telemetry and are dominated by direction variance, rather than establishing absolute traffic-density accuracy. No road mask was available for the evaluation stream, limiting validation of the spatial filtering component. A live run on a third camera stream examines forecasting behavior within the complete pipeline. The results characterize detector speed-accuracy trade-offs and the limitations of short-window traffic telemetry forecasting.

Abstract: Urban traffic systems are becoming increasingly complex, demanding real-time traffic perception, proactive collision prediction, and intelligent management to improve safety and reduce congestion. Although AI-driven traffic management has shown strong promise, its success relies on diverse, high-quality data spanning critical scenarios such as collisions, near-collisions, and traffic rule violations. Digital twins offer a powerful solution by enabling synchronized virtual replicas of physical traffic environments for real-time monitoring, collision prediction, traffic-flow optimization, and diverse realistic scenario generation. However, continuously synchronizing a high-fidelity urban traffic digital twin through edge surveillance cameras requires substantial edge-cloud communication, and transmitting raw video streams leads to severe bandwidth and latency constraints. To overcome this challenge, this paper proposes a semantic communication-based edge-cloud framework for real-time urban traffic digital twin applications. By leveraging edge intelligence to extract and transmit only task-relevant semantic traffic information instead of full video feeds, the proposed framework significantly reduces communication overhead while preserving the essential dynamics needed for accurate real-time digital twin reconstruction. Experimental results demonstrate more than 99% transmission savings and an average trajectory reconstruction error of only 0.12 m, confirming the proposed framework as an effective, scalable, and low-latency solution for AI-enabled urban traffic digital twin applications.

Abstract: Origin-destination (OD) flow forecasting supports urban mobility decisions by predicting the volume and patterns of human movement across a city. Most existing public OD benchmarks provide only a partial view of citywide mobility, covering a single transport service or at most two modes. With partial mode coverage, observed demand changes are difficult to separate into shifts across transport modes and changes in total travel. We introduce SeoulMMOD, a large-scale public benchmark for citywide multimodal mobility in Seoul. SeoulMMOD provides three years of hourly OD flows estimating total mobility for 6 urban travel modes across 25 districts and 426 sub-districts, together with travel-time, travel-distance, calendar, rainfall, and point-of-interest (POI) signals. Using SeoulMMOD, we benchmark 14 forecasting baselines under a common protocol and analyse the effects of spatial scaling, joint versus mode-separate training, and cross-year generalization. Results show that several spatio-temporal models that work at district level do not scale to sub-district OD forecasting, and that naive joint multi-mode training does not consistently improve accuracy. Together, the dataset and benchmark establish a reproducible testbed for multi-mode, multi-year OD forecasting at the city scale.

Abstract: Collective Autonomous Vehicle (AV) route choices in real-world traffic networks can create externalities for Human-Driven Vehicles (HDVs), as routes that benefit AVs may increase travel times for other road users. To address this, we introduce a social component, the marginal cost, to the selfish travel time AV reward. Marginal cost captures an AV's impact on other road users by comparing their travel times with those in a counterfactual simulation in which the AV is removed. We study AV route choice in mixed-autonomy traffic settings using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), where AVs learn routing policies through repeated interactions with the traffic environment. Experiments on the real-world networks of Ingolstadt and Provins show that incorporating marginal cost into the AV reward not only limits the increase in HDV travel times and shortens AV travel times relative to selfish AV routing, but also improves overall system performance. In Ingolstadt, selfish routing of 40\% AVs increases the travel times of other vehicles by 1.7\%, and this drops to 1.1\% when the social reward is included. Interestingly, not only does overall system performance improve, but the AVs are also better off when acting socially.This effect is consistent across tested cities, penetration rates, and replications, yet when the weight of the social component in the reward increases, the system fails to reach the desired performance. For a more scalable approach to social AV routing in mixed-autonomy traffic, we compute the marginal cost only for the AVs whose route choices most affect the traffic system. This reduces the number of counterfactual simulations and achieves similar performance at a significantly lower computational cost. Our results suggest that AV routing should go beyond selfish rewards and, for the benefit of all traffic participants, include a social component in its objective.

Abstract: Trajectory generation underpins urban applications such as traffic management and urban planning. Within road networks, vehicle movement along road segments is largely deterministic, whereas transitions at intersections are critical--multiple outgoing paths may appear equally plausible, yet they can lead to substantially different downstream routes. Existing generative methods such as diffusion models simulate location sequences and fail short of next transition selection, even producing trajectories that drift off the road network. To fill this gap, we advocate a fundamental shift: moving beyond location simulation toward behavior modeling on the road network. In this paper, we revisit trajectory generation through the lens of generative route planning, and introduce a new graph-constrained generative paradigm, Anticipatory Generative Modeling, which resolves next transition selection by incorporating the Anticipation of how the future route may unfold toward the destination. Concretely, we propose a novel generative model named Foresight that formulates a probabilistic model for an "anticipate--select--update--re-anticipate" loop that enables longer-term foresight while continuing sequential generation along the historical trajectory. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Foresight wins state-of-the-art baselines.

Abstract: Knowledge distillation enables efficient spatiotemporal prediction by transferring knowledge from an accurate teacher to a compact student. However, matching outputs or features independently for each sample leaves cross-sample predictive structure underused. Exploiting this structure requires representations and historical references that reflect the dynamics of each task. We propose TAM, a Task-Aware Memory Distillation framework that organizes a frozen teacher's knowledge into a bounded, retrievable history. Memory entries encode latent features, forecast changes, or flow residuals, while task-specific selection rules identify relevant historical references. The student either matches the teacher's similarity distribution over shared references or regresses observation-conditioned residual prototypes. These objectives complement supervised prediction and conventional distillation. The teacher, memory, and auxiliary adapters are used only during training, leaving student inference unchanged. We evaluate TAM on video prediction, weather forecasting, and traffic flow prediction across multiple teacher-student configurations. Averaged over four paired runs, adding TAM improves SSIM on all six video datasets and reduces MSE on five relative to the corresponding KD baselines. Mean paired MSE reductions reach 1.86% on KittiCaltech, 1.93% on WeatherBench with a gSTA teacher, and 1.01% on TaxiBJ. These results demonstrate the utility of historical teacher supervision across distinct forecasting tasks without additional student inference cost.

Abstract: Multivariate long-horizon forecasting is critical to electricity load scheduling and traffic flow management, and to financial risk control. Existing deterministic backbones output a single trajectory, masking heterogeneous prediction difficulty across horizons and channels and providing no localized reliability signal. We present CARE (Corrective branch with Aligned context and Relative-error Estimation), a lightweight plug-in that enhances any deterministic forecaster without architectural redesign. Operating in parallel with the base model, CARE resamples historical context to match the forecast horizon, learns residual correction patterns from this aligned history, and applies scale-aware bounded updates modulated by per-coordinate sigmoid risk gates. A multi-objective loss jointly optimizes forecast accuracy, residual tracking, risk alignment, and base-model anchoring. Across eight benchmarks with three representative backbones, CARE improves accuracy with marginal parameter and latency overhead. Its risk gates reliably identify high-error regions: on Weather, the highest-gate tertile exhibits nearly four times the error of the lowest-gate tertile, offering planners an interpretable per-step trust signal. Code is available at https://github.com/CG-BNYC/CARE.

Abstract: In this paper, we consider the problem of predictive rerouting of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) in mixed traffic with electric vehicle charging demand. We provide a framework that combines a diffusion convolutional recurrent neural network (DCRNN) with a routing policy that accounts for congestion, CO2 emissions, route length, and charging demand. The DCRNN uses historical network observations to forecast traffic conditions and charging demand. These forecasts are then used to evaluate feasible alternative routes for eligible CAVs. A route change is accepted when the alternative preserves connectivity to the original destination and improves the prescribed route cost. We evaluate the proposed framework in SUMO under controlled traffic disruptions at five CAV penetration levels, ranging from 5% to 45%. We compare its performance with K-shortest-path routing, predictive-density routing, V2X proactive routing, and a reference scenario without rerouting. In the considered scenarios, the proposed framework reduces the average travel-time index by approximately 1.8% relative to the reference scenario and achieves the lowest average travel-time index, highest average speed, and lowest aggregate CO2 emissions among the active routing methods. Across all five penetration levels, it accepts 41 route changes, compared with 146 for K-shortest-path routing and 153 for V2X proactive routing. The reference scenario retains lower aggregate emissions and distance traveled, illustrating the tradeoff between congestion reduction and the additional travel associated with rerouting.

Abstract: Traffic flow modeling is essential for understanding and predicting the collective dynamics of vehicles on road networks. Cellular automata provide a simple, interpretable yet powerful framework for representing these dynamics via local interaction rules, while retaining the ability to reproduce complex macroscopic traffic phenomena. However, learning local transition rules from data while preserving physically meaningful constraints remains challenging, particularly for stochastic models. In this work, we propose a physics-informed neural cellular automaton (PI-NCA) for data-driven traffic flow modeling. Building on the standard neural cellular automaton (NCA), we design a neural architecture that is physically consistent with the road topology and guarantees conservation of the total number of vehicles, thereby constraining the learned transition rules to physically admissible dynamics. We further extend this framework to stochastic dynamics by parameterizing probabilistic transition rules while preserving the same physics-informed constraints. We evaluate the proposed models on multiple traffic scenarios generated by the well-established Nagel-Schreckenberg and Kerner-Klenov-Wolf cellular automata. The results demonstrate that the PI-NCA successfully learns the dynamics of both traffic models and consistently outperforms a standard NCA, while the stochastic extension captures probabilistic transition rules without compromising the imposed physical constraints.

Abstract: Effective traffic signal control (TSC) requires policies that respond to changing traffic demand and network conditions while meeting different control objectives. However, adapting existing strategies often involves repeated manual design and adjustment, making it difficult to systematically explore better control rules for a target network. Large language models (LLMs) can automate this process, but directly using them to select signal phases leaves decision rules embedded in black-box models and incurs recurring inference costs and latency. This paper formulates TSC as a modular program design problem and proposes EvoSignal, an LLM-guided evolutionary framework using traffic knowledge and performance feedback. The modular representation separates traffic feature extraction, local phase prioritization, and optional network-based priority adjustment. Starting from several established strategies, EvoSignal improves programs through feedback on congestion and signal operation, retaining strategies with different performance trade-offs. The resulting programs operate without online LLM inference. Simulation experiments across five scenarios on two real-world road networks show that the selected default EvoSignal program reduces waiting time by 16.8--49.2\% relative to the lowest waiting time achieved by the 20 conventional, reinforcement learning-based, and LLM-based baselines in each scenario. A program prioritizing travel time and queue length outperforms all 20 baselines on all three metrics in the search scenario and remains among the top three on each metric when transferred unchanged to the other four scenarios. These findings support automated design of inspectable control programs that transfer across the evaluated road networks and traffic demands.Code is available at https://github.com/georgewanglz2019/EvoSignal.

Abstract: Reliable and interpretable trajectory prediction is critical for cooperative and autonomous driving in complex and uncertain environments. This paper introduces a Context-Aware Attention-based Gaussian Mixture Model (CAA-GMM) for multimodal, uncertainty-aware motion forecasting. The proposed approach models future motion as a probabilistic mixture conditioned on both scene context and agent dynamics, capturing diverse behavioral modes with interpretable Gaussian components. A lightweight attention mechanism adaptively encodes inter-agent interactions and contextual salience, enabling efficient fusion of rasterized environment cues and motion history in dense traffic scenes. Comprehensive evaluations on the nuScenes and Argoverse 2 datasets demonstrate that CAA-GMM achieves competitive or superior accuracy compared with state-of-the-art raster-based baselines, while maintaining low computational complexity. Ablation analyses confirm the importance of the attention module for robust contextual reasoning and predictive precision. Furthermore, evaluations under imperfect communication and perception conditions highlight the framework's resilience to uncertainty, establishing CAA-GMM as an efficient and scalable solution for cooperative trajectory prediction in intelligent transportation systems.

Abstract: We study the design of a token economy for highway lane allocation that aims to improve fairness without sacrificing traffic efficiency. Motivated by the San Mateo 101 Express Lanes Project, we consider a setting in which high-occupancy vehicles have unrestricted access to an express lane, while the remaining users can alternate between regular and express lanes by earning and spending nonmonetary tokens. We model the resulting interaction as a finite-population dynamic congestion game with heterogeneous time preferences and limited-information evolutionary policy revisions. Building on a mean-field approximation, we derive token prices that enforce the system-optimal lane split while inducing fairness over time through turn-taking. The scheme is evaluated in a microscopic traffic simulation with real-world demand data. The results show that the proposed prices yield nearly the same average travel time as a baseline scenario in which no lane is reserved as an express lane, while substantially reducing urgency-weighted perceived travel time. These findings highlight token economies as a promising alternative to monetary congestion pricing for fairer management of scarce road capacity.

Abstract: Diffusion models generate data by reversing a forward corruption process that typically approaches a simple Gaussian prior. Recent work has extended this framework to signals supported on fixed graphs, e.g., road-network traffic and sensor-network measurements. Many graph signals have nonuniform spectral energy, whereas isotropic corruption adds the same conditional noise variance to every graph-frequency mode. Driving all modes to near-zero terminal signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) requires strong corruption, which increases the noise range that must be covered under a fixed sampling budget. We introduce Graph Residual Conjugate Diffusion (GRCD), which replaces the shared clock of graph heat diffusion with a mode-dependent clock that gives every graph-Fourier mode the same conditional SNR. GRCD fits a zero-mean graph-spectral Gaussian reference on the training split and stops at a finite terminal SNR at which the propagated reference still carries the fitted spectral variances. The Gaussian component has an exact modewise propagator in the probability-flow ODE, so sampling advances it analytically and integrates only the learned residual score numerically. We evaluate GRCD on five settings (METR-LA traffic, Molene weather, and three stochastic block models) against seven comparators under a matched protocol: Graph-Aware Diffusion (GAD), EDM (graph backbone), two adaptations of Whitened Score Diffusion (WSD), and three preconditioning controls. At four function evaluations (NFEs), GRCD lowers averaged maximum mean discrepancy (aMMD) by 22 to 36 times over the best comparator on all five settings, reaching 0.054 on METR-LA, where it clears an aMMD 0.1 target with 87% less sampling wall-clock time than the cheapest comparator that reaches it. Fitting the terminal reference reduces aMMD by 2.7 to 7.3 times at finite terminal SNR, while the factors shrink to 1.00 to 1.01 near zero.

Abstract: A central question in deploying teams of mobile robots for persistent monitoring is how task performance scales with fleet size, and whether this scaling holds once sensing drives downstream action rather than mere observation. We study this question for a team of drones performing traffic-jam detection and prediction in a simulated road network, whose reports drive an adaptive traffic-signal controller in closed loop. We build a multi-agent simulation, with vehicles following Nagel-Schreckenberg cellular-automaton dynamics and drones patrolling junctions via a round-robin policy, and sweep fleet size, traffic level, and network size to evaluate detection rate, detection delay, and prediction rate. We show how performance plateaus for fleet size approximating the number of junctions being monitored, and offer a general fleet-provisioning rule for persistent-monitoring deployments. More significantly, adapting the signal on a predicted jam, rather than a detected one, roughly doubles the resulting reduction in jam duration, showing that the value of onboard prediction in a sensing-to-action pipeline can exceed the value of adding more robots. Prediction accuracy, not sensing coverage, is now the binding constraint on further improvement, pointing to onboard inference, not fleet size, as the more promising direction for future work.

Abstract: Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) is critical across many real-world domains. Existing deep learning approaches fall into two paradigms with distinct limitations: channel-independent (CI) methods unconditionally ignore cross-variable dependencies and model only temporal dynamics, while channel-dependent (CD) methods consider both but typically rely on architectural compromises to mitigate overfitting and computational overhead. We therefore propose Chameleon, a specialized CD state space model (SSM) that enables data-dependent, fine-grained interactions across variables while scaling linearly with their number. By connecting selective SSMs with the Kalman filter, we leverage the missing measurement update in the former for cross-variable modeling while preserving the SSM backbone for robust temporal modeling. We further identify favorable inductive biases of GatedDeltaNet for time series, adapt it as our backbone, and improve generalization through additional techniques, including a previously unexplored stochastic perturbation of reversible instance normalization. On strongly dependent ODE and PEMS datasets, Chameleon achieves the best MSE and MAE across all settings, while its CI ablation and prior CD methods incur 61-178% higher MSE on average. Across 28 standard benchmark settings, Chameleon also achieves better MSE and MAE than each baseline in at least 27 and 22 cases, respectively. Training-time and peak-memory analyses on Traffic and ETT further demonstrate competitive efficiency and favorable memory scalability across different variable counts.

Abstract: In vehicular networks under edge computing environments, vehicle-to-vehicle delay-tolerant networking (V-DTN) can disseminate congestion warnings to other vehicles via a store-carry-forward mechanism, helping them proactively choose suitable routes. However, most existing in-vehicle information dissemination methods rely on flooding or limited flooding strategies, broadcasting alerts across the entire network whenever congestion is detected. This leads to excessive redundant copies and consumes node cache space. To address this issue, this paper proposes a congestion-event- aware on-demand message dissemination mechanism. By considering the recurrence and duration of congestion, the mechanism suppresses broadcasts of short-lived, self-dissipating congestion events. Based on real-world PeMS data from California's I-210 corridor, we construct an I-210 Freeway Traffic Congestion Use Case. Experiments show that predicting congestion recurrence heavily relies on historical free-flow speed data of lanes. Without incorporating additional feature dimensions, the accuracy of modeling and comparing lane free-flow speeds across different day types outweighs the choice of machine learning models, and such patterns are difficult to reproduce in simulators. Meanwhile, congestion duration prediction serves effectively as the basis for dynamic-threshold on-demand dissemination in V-DTN, which demonstrate that machine learning-based congestion awareness combined with dynamic-threshold on-demand dissemination significantly reduces network resource consumption and network-layer congestion, enhances delivery reliability, and lowers delivery latency.

Abstract: Short-term turning-movement forecasts can support signal control and corridor operations, but unconstrained neural networks may produce physically impossible negative counts or outputs that are not explicitly tied to an approach-demand total. This study introduces the Linear Temporal-Variable Compositional Turning Decomposition Network (LTV-CTDNet), a forecasting framework designed to combine competitive accuracy with structurally admissible outputs. LTV-CTDNet was evaluated using seven months of 15-minute LiDAR observations from eight monitored corridor locations in Nashville, Tennessee. Its lightweight encoder combines recent turning-movement history, weekly time-slot embeddings, and location embeddings. The Compositional Turning Decomposition framework separately predicts nonnegative approach totals and within-approach turning proportions, then reconstructs movement forecasts from these components. Among the evaluated predefined configurations, LTV-CTDNet achieved a movement-level MAE of 1.8189 and RMSE of 3.8072. Its accuracy gains over the strongest sequence models were modest, but it produced no negative forecasts, while unconstrained learned models generated negative values in approximately 10.6% to 29.2% of raw forecast cells. The framework enforces nonnegative outputs and exact agreement between each model-predicted approach total and the sum of its component movements by construction, providing directly interpretable forecasts without clipping or coherence correction.

Abstract: The geometry of latent representations governs which components should interact and how information should propagate, making geometry-aware operator design a fundamental ingredient of structured deep representation learning. However, existing neural architectures typically rely on generic operator templates or geometry-specific constructions, creating a need for a unified framework that can derive admissible operators directly from fixed structural information while remaining adaptive to changing contexts. We introduce \emph{Geometry-Induced Operator Families} (GIOF), a general framework that converts fixed geometry into a structured family of propagation operators and dynamically selects an appropriate member of this family according to the current context. GIOF first transforms geometry-derived interaction channels into reusable generator bases, then combines them through a context-dependent selector and adaptive propagation scale, and finally realizes the selected operator through stable continuous-time propagation and a bottleneck residual layer. We establish theoretical guarantees covering parameter compression, identifiability, stability, locality, compositional structure, and oversmoothing behavior, while controlled experiments validate these mechanisms and experiments on PEMS-BAY and METR-LA achieve the lowest mean MAE across all reported regional-outage settings, improving over the strongest retained baseline by 2.4\%--8.8\% at 30\% missing sensors.

Abstract: Cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning under partial observability and shared rewards requires assigning team outcomes to individual agents and high-order coalitions. A MAPPO-style critic compresses joint behavior into one global value, while critics that dynamically reconstruct the grouping topology change the mapping from agents and coalitions to value components as interactions or active agents evolve. We refer to this inconsistency as structural target drift. We introduce HySTAR, a MAPPO-based framework that separates adaptive representation learning from a temporally consistent high-order value-decomposition basis. HySTAR anchors an overlapping sparse hypergraph as a uniformly covered decomposition scaffold, uses a spatiotemporal encoder to represent physical and task-dependent interactions, and combines temporal and structural relevance to construct agent-specific advantages. Experiments on SMAC, GRF, Traffic Junction, and MPE demonstrate consistent improvements over MAPPO-style, value-factorization, and dynamic-grouping baselines. On the hardest SMAC settings, HySTAR achieves relative gains of 16.7\% over MAPPO and 15.6\% over HYGMA, ranks first on all six GRF scenarios, reduces Traffic Junction convergence epochs by up to 40.2\% relative to MAGIC, and obtains the highest MPE episode rewards. Controlled topology, agent-death, neighborhood, and parameter analyses support the benefit of anchoring the decomposition scaffold while adapting the propagated representations.

Abstract: Continual spatio-temporal forecasting supports traffic management and environmental monitoring under evolving dynamics and expanding sensor networks. However, conventional graph-based continual learning methods tie forecasting representations to the current sensor layout, so sensor expansion can alter the representation of learned spatial relationships. Our key insight is that sensor expansion changes the evidence available about a process without necessarily changing the dynamics to be learned. We propose STFO (Spatio-Temporal Field Operator), which parameterizes forecasting knowledge as a shared field-evolution operator and handles changing sensor layouts through observation and query interfaces. Normalized coordinate-based aggregation lifts irregular sensor histories onto a fixed latent grid, enabling reuse of learned spatial maps across observation sets without sensor-specific parameters. To accommodate process drift, a spectral descriptor summarizes variation across spatial scales and conditions Fourier propagation and attention to adapt operator responses to the current spatial regime. Coordinate-based decoding queries the evolved field at sensor locations and combines spatial corrections with local-history predictions. Experiments on PEMS-Stream, CA-Stream, and AIR-Stream demonstrate state-of-the-art average forecasting performance. STFO-Large reduces average MAE over DOL by 8.4% on PEMS-Stream and 4.7% on CA-Stream. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xielewei/Spatio-Temporal-Field-Operator.

Abstract: Language models gain accuracy from more compute at test time, but majority voting over independent samples saturates: as samples grow, the vote converges to the model's most frequent answer. Communication can add what sampling cannot: an agent that solves a problem can pass the key step to the others. We present TalkMesh, a decentralized mesh of small language model agents that learns when and what to communicate. Each agent samples a proposal and scores it with a trained confidence head. The most confident agent broadcasts a hint; agents below a confidence threshold revise, keeping each revision that outscores its proposal. Gossip consensus approximates the vote weighted by confidence without a coordinator. A talk policy, trained with group relative policy optimization on the change in correctness after revision, writes hints and revisions. With three agents, which together generate at most six outputs, the mesh reaches the accuracy of majority voting over 32 samples with each of three models. Trained with at most 8 agents and evaluated with 32, it raises accuracy from 0.568 under self-consistency to 0.705 (Qwen3.5-0.8B, GSM8K) and from 0.492 to 0.722 (SmolLM3-3B, MATH-500). When 4 of 8 agents collude on a wrong answer with fabricated confidence and poisoned hints, majority vote accuracy falls to 0.000 (Qwen3.5-0.8B, GSM8K). A defended mesh, whose agents rescore solutions with their own confidence heads, retains 0.507. Across reasoning, embodied coordination, and traffic signal control, messages improve a decision when the acting agent cannot observe the information it requires and another agent can send it.

Abstract: The estimation of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is vital for transportation planning and infrastructure maintenance, yet obtaining accurate values for an entire urban network across multiple years remains challenging due to the high cost and spatial sparsity of physical sensors. This research proposes a novel spatio-temporally complementary feature propagation framework that leverages the strengths of two distinct data sources: spatially sparse but temporally dense loop detector data, and a spatially complete but temporally sparse macroscopic transportation model. The methodology highlights a feature propagation algorithm on directed graphs, formulated as a Poisson energy minimization considering residues. The standard binary adjacency matrix is replaced with flow ratio matrices to capture real-world vehicle turn ratios at intersections. Validated in the city of Zurich, the algorithm demonstrates high computational efficiency, achieving convergence within minutes. Results indicate that the framework effectively reconciles theoretical models with empirical ground truths, yielding a normalized mean absolute error below $10\%$. This scalable approach provides a feasible solution for spatio-temporal network-wide AADT estimation through combining real-world limited sensor coverage and traffic models.

Abstract: Traffic flow forecasting is essential to intelligent transportation systems. Large-scale traffic forecasting requires jointly modeling local spatial dependencies and cross-region context.Spatial dependencies between geographically neighboring nodes are heterogeneous due to differences in road identity and travel direction, while acquiring global information through allpairs node interactions incurs substantial computational costs. Therefore, capturing local heterogeneity while efficiently acquiring long-range context remains an important challenge in largescale traffic forecasting. To address these challenges, we propose LoReST, a Local-Region Spatial Temporal network that models spatial dependencies at two complementary granularities: node neighborhoods and road network regions. Specifically, relation-aware local aggregation captures heterogeneous dependencies within geographic neighborhoods through road and direction specific feature transformations. Cross-region interaction constructs region representations through mean pooling, exchanges long range context via inter-region attention, and broadcasts it back to nodes. By integrating local information aggregation with crossregion interaction, LoReST is able to effectively achieve spatial dependency learning in large-scale road networks. Experiments on four datasets of the LargeST benchmark show average relative reductions of 4.78%, 3.60%, and 5.75% in MAE, RMSE, and MAPE, respectively.

Abstract: Infrastructure-based radar systems offer robust and long-range solutions for traffic monitoring, yet their detection and tracking performance under real-world conditions remains insufficiently evaluated. This study introduces DRaT (Drone and Radar Trajectories), a dual-modality dataset of naturalistic vehicle trajectories collected at a highway merging segment in Fort Worth, Texas, to systematically assess radar sensing performance against drone-derived ground truth. The performance is evaluated at three levels: individual vehicle detection, trajectory tracking, and macroscopic traffic parameter estimation. For individual vehicle detection, the radar achieves an overall precision of 78% and a recall of 57%, with degraded performance under congested traffic conditions and at longer distances. At the trajectory level, the radar demonstrates reasonably strong tracking performance (IDF1 = 0.699), maintaining reliable vehicle identities when tracks are successfully established. For macroscopic traffic flow metrics, the radar accurately estimates space-mean speed (MAPE < 4%) but underestimates density and volume by approximately 23% due to missed detections. The paper also discusses practical deployment considerations and potential downstream applications of roadside radar sensing systems. To support reproducible research on infrastructure-based sensing systems, we have open-sourced the DRaT dataset on Zenodo: https://zenodo.org/records/20171110.

Abstract: Accurate multi-step traffic forecasting remains challenging because observed traffic signals contain heterogeneous temporal dynamics with different characteristics and levels of predictability. Existing approaches typically model these dynamics within a unified representation or rely on predefined decomposition rules, which may limit their ability to flexibly separate persistent patterns from rapidly varying fluctuations. To address this issue, we propose the Adaptive Decomposition Network (ADNet), a component-specific forecasting framework that adaptively disentangles traffic dynamics into dominant and residual components. ADNet introduces a learnable complementary spectral decomposition mechanism that determines the contribution of each frequency bin to the two components. Unlike hard frequency partitioning, every frequency bin can contribute to both components with different learned proportions, allowing the decomposition to be optimized jointly with the forecasting objective. The reconstructed components are then modeled by two dedicated spatiotemporal forecasting branches, and their predictions are integrated to generate the final multi-step forecast. Experiments on the Alameda and Orange regions of the TraffiDent dataset show that ADNet achieves the best performance in 20 of the 24 reported region-horizon-metric comparisons, with particularly clear gains at longer forecasting horizons. Capacity-controlled ablation experiments further show that the learnable decomposition substantially outperforms a fixed decomposition and provides additional improvements beyond the dual-branch architecture alone. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of adaptive decomposition and component-specific modeling for multi-step traffic forecasting.

Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been introduced into traffic signal control (TSC) as decision agents due to their strengths in human-readable reasoning generation. Yet, existing LLM TSC methods optimize only from final outcomes and fail to distinguish valid from flawed reasoning steps, causing useful or misleading steps to be jointly updated and thus impairing the model's learning of effective reasoning. To bridge this gap, we propose an LLM-based framework ProcessLight to decompose signal decisions into verifiable semantic steps. Building on ProcessLight, we further develop Step-wise Traffic Process Policy Optimization (STeP-PO), a novel reinforcement learning framework that optimizes structured reasoning processes through step-level credit assignment. Specifically, STeP-PO uses step quality scores to evaluate local reasoning quality and step importance to measure each step's influence on the final action, and then assigns step-level advantages over a semantic step tree structure. The resulting step-level advantages are propagated to reasoning tokens, enabling fine-grained policy optimization beyond outcome-only rewards. Extensive experiments over multiple real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/wenzhaoabc/processlight.

Abstract: Accurate traffic forecasting requires both understanding scene dynamics and synthesizing realistic future observations. Recent diffusion-based video generation models produce visually plausible predictions but require expensive end-to-end training and often entangle scene understanding with image synthesis. In this work, we propose a decoupled forecasting framework that separates future representation learning from video generation. A frozen V-JEPA encoder first extracts predictive latent representations from the observed traffic videos, capturing the underlying scene dynamics in a semantic latent space. A lightweight latent alignment module then projects these representations into the conditioning space of a frozen Cosmos diffusion module, enabling future video synthesis without retraining the large generative model. By freezing all foundation models and training only the lightweight alignment module, the proposed framework substantially reduces optimization complexity while preserving forecasting capability. Experimental results on the AI City Challenge 2026 Track 5 benchmark demonstrate that the proposed method achieved a score of 75.1297, ranking third in the competition. These results suggest that predictive world representations learned by V-JEPA can effectively guide downstream video generation, providing a practical and efficient alternative to end-to-end diffusion-based forecasting.

Abstract: Integrated deep reinforcement learning (DRL) and model predictive control (MPC) methods are increasingly used to control autonomous systems by combining their complementary capabilities. DRL learns control policies through interaction with the environment. MPC uses a system model to optimize control inputs while accounting for constraints. In DRL-MPC frameworks with shared control authority, both the DRL agent and the MPC controller each determine part of the control inputs. However, common learning formulations treat MPC as part of the environment and therefore do not explicitly account for MPC's contribution to control or its interaction with the DRL agent. This paper proposes a novel composite-gradient learning (CGL) method that integrates the MPC controller into the learning process by representing the DRL and MPC control inputs as a joint action and accounting for their interaction when updating the DRL agent during training. CGL is evaluated on two multi-class freeway traffic networks with different strengths of interaction between the DRL and MPC control inputs and it is compared with alternative methods that treat MPC as part of the environment or that only partially incorporate MPC into learning. The results show that CGL offers limited benefit under weak interaction, but learns higher-performing control policies than the alternative methods in a subset of training runs under strong interaction, although the average control-performance gains remain modest.

Abstract: Multi-modal spatio-temporal forecasting (MM-STF) supports weather nowcasting, traffic prediction, and earth-system modeling by combining heterogeneous sources such as physical fields, satellite imagery, and in-situ sensors. Three obstacles persist: (i) modalities have different spatio-temporal sampling rates, forcing lossy interpolation onto a unified grid; (ii) modalities are frequently missing at deployment due to sensor outages or revisit gaps, while most methods train with full availability; and (iii) autoregressive decoders accumulate errors over long horizons, amplified by multi-modal conditioning. We propose AsyncCouple-Flow to address these issues jointly. A Modality-Aware Token Sparsification (MATS) module performs scale-aware tokenization and uses a shared importance scorer to select top-k tokens per timestep, producing equal-length sequences. An Asynchronous Cross-Modal Coupling Graph (ACCG) replaces fixed cross-attention with a learnable graph whose edges encode time offsets, semantic similarity, and modality-specific physical priors, enabling fusion under arbitrary asynchrony and missingness. A Flow-Matching Forecasting Head models multi-step prediction as a conditional ODE, trained with stochastic modality dropout and integrated jointly to avoid autoregressive drift. Experiments on ERA5+GOES+ISD weather forecasting and PEMS-BAY traffic prediction with multi-source side information show that AsyncCouple-Flow outperforms state-of-the-art baselines and remains robust with up to two missing modalities. The code will be released upon acceptance.

Abstract: The rapid development of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology has made aerial-image object detection increasingly important for natural-resource monitoring, traffic management, and disaster response. Detecting small objects in aerial images remains difficult because objects occupy very few pixels, high-frequency cues are easily lost, and global context is hard to model in cluttered scenes. Existing detectors often retain insufficient edge, corner, and texture information. We propose \ours, an aerial-image detector built on the YOLO12 architecture. The model combines a triple-path high-frequency enhancement convolution module (TriPathHFConv), receptive-field coordinate-attention convolution (RFCAConv), and a Mamba-based global-context module. On VisDrone, at an input resolution of 960*960, ours achieves 60.0% mAP@50 and 38.6%mAP@50:95, demonstrating a favorable accuracy--efficiency trade-off for small-object detection. The benchmark and dataset protocol follow the VisDrone challenge setup.

Abstract: Differences in vehicle kinematic characteristics between production autonomous vehicles (PAVs) and human-driven vehicles (HVs) have been limitedly investigated by empirical studies. Most recent studies rely on simulation-based models, while some further investigate low-level adaptive cruise control (ACC) systems in controlled experiments. These methods commonly adapt some time-domain metrics to characterize PAV-HV differences across limited driving conditions. However, current PAVs equipped with high-level autonomous driving systems generate driving behaviors in a black box using data-driven models. These fundamentally different mechanisms for generating behaviors may produce distinct kinematic characteristics in traffic. More importantly, these time-domain metrics cannot reflect frequency-related traffic dynamics across different driving scenarios. Thus, this study adapted a real-world PAV dataset with four PAV platforms and developed a frequency-domain framework to quantify kinematic differences between PAVs and HVs across diverse driving scenarios, including varying driving states, lighting, weather, and vehicle densities. The framework transforms kinematic signals into the frequency domain and extracts spectral features, and then compares these features between PAVs and HVs based on kernel density estimation and Wasserstein distance. The results reveal clear scenario-dependent PAV-HV spectral differences. Specifically, speed-related differences were consistently smaller during car-following than cruising, while rainy conditions consistently enlarged acceleration-related differences compared with clear conditions. These findings highlight the necessity of multi-scenario evaluations and demonstrate the value of frequency-domain analysis for characterizing PAV-HV kinematic differences under real-world conditions.