Papers for
tourism planners
Papers whose findings have a practical use for this group, as judged from the abstract. Open a paper to read what it means in practice.
Hybrid models improve visitor forecasting for Nebraska lakes
A Hybrid Visitor Prediction Framework using Interpretable Temporal features, Integrating IQR and Anomaly Detection in Lakes in Nebraska
Abstract: For effective resource management, infrastructure planning, and sustainable tourism, it is really important to predict accurate visitors. This paper estimates the daily visitation of Nebraska lakes using spatial, basic temporal, and interpretable temporal features. Moreover, we evaluate the base models with multiple metrics. Using the best three models, our method will ensemble hybrid models and choose the best hybrid technique. Further, we investigate the impact of lag features and how the models work with different outlier detection techniques such as Interquartile Range (IQR) and anomaly detection. The models are evaluated using regression metrics (MAE, MSE, RMSE, MAPE, and R2). Experiment results show that, after removing anomalies, MAE, MSE, RMSE, and MAPE are reduced. Adding lag features also shows some positive effects on the results. Moreover, anomaly detection techniques perform better than IQR in improving performance while preserving data. The reported anomaly-based cross-validation results favored the voting ensemble over the compared base models on the evaluated metrics. In anomaly-based cross-validation, VOTE improved prediction errors compared with MLP (256,128,64); improvements varied in the single-split comparison. Specifically, the hybrid model reduced MAE by 9.82%, MSE by 3.12%, RMSE by 1.76%, and MAPE by 6.77%. In the reported cross-validation comparison, the best anomaly-based hybrid model had lower MAE, MSE, RMSE, and MAPE than the best IQR-based hybrid model by 9.81%, 34.30%, 18.99%, and 0.66%, respectively.
Multi dimensional score finds hidden attractions in mountain areas
A Multi-Dimensional Score for Detecting Lesser-Known Points of Interest in Mountain Regions
Abstract: Overtourism concentrates visitor demand on few iconic sites, while other points of interest (POIs) in the same area often remain known only to a narrower public. This imbalance is especially critical in mountain environments, where limited infrastructure amplifies environmental pressures. Discovering lesser-known POIs is relevant for redistributing tourism demand spatially, valuing underrepresented heritage, and temporally, easing high seasonality pressures on popular POIs. Across the literature, definitions of lesser-known POIs or hidden gems remain scattered, and existing scoring approaches remain incomplete, relying on narrow indicators (e.g., number of photos, reviews, likes) which fail to characterize mountain POIs holistically. These approaches are further constrained by their reliance on commercial proprietary sources, or by questionnaires that are subject to memory bias. To address these gaps, we introduce a novel multi-dimensional metric, the Obscurity Score, that groups fragmented literature into four key dimensions (International Awareness, Attractiveness, Promotion, and Accessibility) to systematically detect and characterize lesser-known POIs and enable their promotion as a first step toward mitigating overtourism. To operationalize this score, we develop a generic pipeline mapping open data sources onto these four dimensions. Preliminary results from a web-based prototype demonstrate the practical relevance of the proposed approach.