supply chain planners

Abstract: We resolve the matroid secretary conjecture, giving an online algorithm that accepts each element of the offline optimum with probability at least $1/4$. The algorithm only needs the number of elements in advance and independence-oracle access to subsets of already-arrived elements; it does not need to know the matroid upfront.

Abstract: A contract-logistics spare-parts operator is paid on order-level service: an order counts only if every requested line is fulfilled, yet forecasters are selected based on line-level forecast accuracy. This disconnect matters when demand is intermittent and lumpy, histories are short, and lead times span months. We benchmarked 38 forecasting methods spanning classical, intermittent-demand, machine-learning, deep-learning, and pretrained foundation models. A common decision-aware protocol evaluates them on an industrial panel drawn from a live contract and two public datasets. Forecast-accuracy rank and order-service rank are negatively correlated on the industrial panel, at -0.555, across methods evaluated on 20,330 real multi-item orders. Service is more closely associated with the direction of cumulative forecast bias, including over-prediction during zero-demand periods, than with point accuracy. Examining bias in Chronos-2's instance normalization yields a training-free correction that lifts the per-material fill proxy from 77.5% to 92.0% (14.5 percentage points) at the 90% policy target and raises the complete-order fill rate from 54% to 63%. For reproducibility, we release RUF (Regenerate-Until-Fidelity), a method for generating fidelity-certified synthetic panels on which the findings reproduce. For intermittent demand, the lowest-error forecast need not deliver the highest service. Bias direction helps explain this gap, which can be reduced without retraining.

Abstract: Consistent submodular maximization studies the tradeoff between solution quality and stability when elements arrive over time. For a monotone submodular objective, which models diminishing returns, an algorithm maintains a set of at most $k$ available elements and changes only $O(1)$ elements after each insertion. Dütting et al. [2025] established a tight $2/3$ approximation with unrestricted computation and a polynomial-time $0.51$ approximation. They left open at STOC 2025 whether efficient algorithms can match the offline $1-1/e$ guarantee. We resolve this problem by proving that the supremum approximation achievable with polynomially many value queries and worst-case constant recourse is \[ β=2-\sqrt2\approx0.5858<1-1/e. \] For every $\varepsilon>0$, our randomized algorithm attains $β-\varepsilon$ with $O(\varepsilon^{-2})$ changes per insertion. Any fixed improvement requires exponentially many queries before one critical insertion or linear recourse of $Ω(k)$ changes at that insertion, even with unlimited queries afterwards. This gap quantifies the cost of consistency: the current oracle hides which elements will be needed after an arrival. We also determine the exact curvature-dependent threshold $1-(\sqrt2-1)\vartheta$, attain $1-1/e-\varepsilon$ for weighted coverage with $O(\varepsilon^{-1})$ recourse, and separate the existence of universal future-price certificates from their efficient computation. Our algorithm has a bounded-bit polynomial-time implementation for polynomial-bit rational oracle answers; the lower bound uses only logarithmic-bit rational answers.

Abstract: The fixed-charge network flow problem (FCNFP) couples continuous flow allocation with discrete arc-activation decisions, making it a canonical but computationally challenging model for a variety of network design and resource allocation problems. Exact mixed-integer linear programming formulations capture the fixed-charge structure faithfully, but often become difficult to solve on large networks. We propose a scalable continuous-optimization algorithm for large-scale single-commodity FCNFP based on an iteratively reweighted least-squares (IRLS) framework. The method replaces the discontinuous fixed-charge and linear arc cost objective with a smooth nonconvex Lasry--Lions surrogate and solves a sequence of weighted quadratic flow subproblems. Each subproblem is solved by a warm-started dual semismooth Newton method whose Newton systems have weighted graph-Laplacian structure, enabling the use of modern Laplacian solvers. To further improve the discovered arc supports of the challenging underlying combinatorial problem, we also develop an algorithmic variant that incorporates objective-driven perturbation restarts and an anchor-union restricted search that jointly leverages supports discovered by IRLS and by complementary FCNFP heuristics. Computational experiments on 410 benchmark, synthetic, and large-scale instances show that our method obtains the best objective quality among the evaluated scalable FCNFP algorithms, with a mean gap of $1.316\%$ to a time-limited MILP reference and a win-or-tie rate of $90.0\%$ among the non-MILP methods. The results indicate that combining smooth continuous optimization with support-level search is an effective strategy for producing high-quality feasible solutions to large-scale FCNFP.