supply chain managers

Abstract: Time-series forecasters are ranked almost entirely by accuracy metrics, but a forecast's decision value, its effect on the downstream decision, need not track accuracy and is rarely measured. This problem compounds as large language model (LLM) agents increasingly consume forecasters as tools, mediating them through stochastic, opaque policies. We present Vendster, an evaluation arena measuring how a forecaster's bias and prediction-interval width change the outcome of a buyer--vendor discount negotiation between two LLM agents. In the reference instance Vendster-M5, sampling base demand patterns from the M5 dataset, we evaluate two frontier-closed LLM families (Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.6 Sol) and two open ones (DeepSeek-V3.2 and Qwen3-235B-A22B). Model-generated forecasts raise sales target attainment by up to +17 percentage points (p<0.001), yet standard forecast evaluation metrics such as relWQL and MASE do not predict negotiation outcomes at a statistically significant level. To isolate the causal structure, we substitute in synthetic forecasts with controlled bias and interval width. Under-prediction bias significantly improves outcomes for agents that react more to the forecasts---dose-response slopes -0.387 and -0.416 (p<0.001). Interval width has no statistically significant effect at zero bias. These findings indicate that the direction of forecast bias and agent forecast-reactivity are more strongly associated with downstream outcomes than forecast accuracy. Vendster is fully customizable and released under CC BY-NC 4.0 at https://github.com/amazon-science/Vendster.

Abstract: Organisms must constantly weigh exploiting the resources they know against exploring for better ones. When foragers compete, the best behavior for each forager also depends on what its competitors do. How does competition change the strategic balance between exploration and exploitation? Here we address this question in a minimal model: two $ε$-greedy temporal-difference learners on a one-dimensional lattice, who start at a small reward at one end and are unaware of a larger reward at the other. For a lone forager, the optimal exploration rate increases monotonically with the value of the distant reward, and with its distance up to a critical distance. When two foragers share the lattice and split rewards, the choice of exploration rate becomes a game whose Nash equilibria have both foragers exploring, both staying, or one exploring while the other stays (anti-coordination). Under local best-response dynamics, pairs of foragers often converge on both exploring or both staying, even when anti-coordination would be socially optimal. This social dilemma arises for a wide range of parameters, and it persists even in a simplified model without explicit spatial structure. A minimal, naturalistic signal, in which one forager informs the other that it has found the distant reward, can remove many of the dilemmas in which both foragers explore, and can produce a Nash equilibrium whose collective payoff exceeds that of every outcome available without signaling.

Abstract: Industrial spatial decisions are assembled across systems that share neither a reference frame nor an owner, and analysts spend substantial effort reconciling those systems rather than reasoning about space. This paper presents ANASSA, a reference architecture integrating structured reasoning, multi-agent workflow orchestration, authoritative spatial grounding, and feedback-driven execution, and reports its instantiation in an operating supply-chain deployment. The architecture places typed data contracts at agent boundaries, validates spatial claims against a certified authoritative foundation, and enforces two blocking human-in-the-loop approvals inside a six-step cognitive loop. The deployment covers multi-hazard risk assessment on an ocean-and-inland freight lane, including cold-chain excursion detection over container telemetry. Across a three-month proof of concept (POC) with three implementation iterations, three deployment outcomes are reported: 25% improvement in data quality, 50% reduction in spatial workflow runtime, and 60% lower decision latency relative to the preceding manual workflow. Absolute deployment-scale quantities and baseline counts are confidential; reported percentages are observed relative changes. These are uncontrolled deployment observations, not controlled experiments. We therefore specify instrumentation and ablation protocols for mechanism-level evaluation.

Abstract: Contextual decision making uses observed covariates to guide decisions under uncertainty. Two natural approaches are predict-then-optimize (PtO), which learns the conditional expected objective, and generate-then-optimize (GtO), which learns conditional uncertainty and optimizes using generated scenarios. We study when each approach is preferable by examining how the choice of learning target affects statistical accuracy and optimization tractability. Although PtO learns a narrower target, our regret bounds show how differences in smoothness can offset GtO's additional dimensional burden. Exploiting smoothness also raises an optimization tradeoff: within the class of nonnegative-weight PtO methods studied, a lower bound limits the gains from additional smoothness, while more flexible methods may introduce signed weights and lose the guarantee of preserving convexity. GtO preserves scenario-wise convexity, but requires learning a richer object and generating scenarios for optimization. Synthetic experiments and a real case study illustrate how these tradeoffs vary with data availability and problem structure. Together with the scope for reusing a model across tasks, our findings provide practical guidance for choosing between the approaches without identifying a universal winner.

Abstract: We study an intermediary that buys nonperishing items from arriving sellers and sells them to arriving buyers, subject to limited storage. Sellers and buyers arrive according to independent Poisson processes. The intermediary pays and charges the same fixed item prices, aiming to maximize long-run gains from trade: buyer value minus seller cost. Our benchmark may choose allocations directly, has unlimited storage, and must purchase each unit before allocating it. Its optimal long-run gain rate equals the value of a linear program of average purchase and allocation rates, with or without knowledge of future arrivals. For buyers whose bundle values are maxima of nonnegative additive valuations (XOS), we compute static common prices that guarantee half of this benchmark for arbitrary finite item capacities, even one storage slot per item, regardless of how ties are resolved without using future arrivals. The prices are computable in polynomial time using demand and supporting-value queries. The construction equalizes itemwise lower bounds on buyer and seller contributions to gains from trade, accounting for procurement costs. We call this contribution balance. As a single-item foundation, we also equalize the rates of purchases and sales selected by the price, before checking inventory availability. We call this rate balance. For capacity $C$, it yields the tight guarantee $C/(C+1)$. The two principles parallel proofs of the classical prophet inequality based on half the expected benchmark and on a median threshold, adapting these balancing ideas to recurring two-sided markets with limited inventory.

Abstract: In the classical principal-agent setting, the principal delegates some task to the agent, who receives a payment conditioned on the outcome of the task, which in turn benefits the principal. To align their objectives, the principal designs a contract that incentivizes the agent to take actions beneficial to the principal. In practice, however, the agent may act under misspecified beliefs about the underlying environment, leading to systematically suboptimal decisions. In this work, we study this problem through a principal-agent Markov Decision Process (PAMDP), in which the principal repeatedly interacts with an agent whose transition model may differ from the true environment dynamics. The principal has access to the true transition model and designs contracts that account for the agent's belief and incentives. We characterize contract design under model mismatch and develop a framework that enables the principal to induce desirable long-term benefits even though the agent has a potentially inaccurate understanding of the environment.

Abstract: The Strong Total Cover Problem (STCP) is a novel covering problem defined on a graph $G = (V, E)$, where the objective is to find a minimum-cardinality subset $T \subseteq V \cup E$ such that every element of $V \cup E$ is covered. In this setting, a vertex covers itself and all its incident edges, while an edge covers itself together with its two endpoints. The STCP resembles classical covering problems such as Vertex Cover and Edge Cover problems, and naturally arises as the dual of the total matching problem. In this paper, we investigate the STCP from algorithmic, complexity, and polyhedral perspectives. We first establish close connections between STCP, the Dominating Set Problem, and the Maximum Induced Matching Problem. These relationships provide structural insights, imply the NP-hardness of STCP, and identify graph classes for which the problem is polynomial-time solvable. We then investigate the weighted version of STCP, showing that it remains NP-hard even on complete graphs with binary weights. On the other hand, we present a 2-approximation algorithm, and a polynomial-time algorithm for complete bipartite graphs. On the polyhedral side, we introduce the Strong Total Cover Polytope and derive several families of valid inequalities, some of which are shown to define facets. Finally, we provide a complete linear description of the associated polytope for triangular cactus graphs, revealing an interesting contrast with the considerably more intricate facial structure of the dominating set polytope on cactus graphs.

Abstract: Time series forecasting models are increasingly deployed in continuously evolving environments. After a forecast is issued, future observations gradually arrive and reveal how the model has failed. Existing methods mainly treat such observations as supervision for parameter updates. However, it remains unclear whether verified forecasting errors can themselves provide causal feedback for correcting future predictions. To address this, we introduce Error Feedback Calibration (EFC), a fully test-time framework for deterministic post-hoc correction of time series forecasting. EFC constructs a Causal Error Diagonal (CED) from revealed errors of overlapping historical forecasts, providing a fresh view of the frozen forecaster's recent failure behavior. Then Cumulative Error Transport (CET) maps this error state to future residuals using cumulative estimation, while temporal out-of-sample validation controls the correction strength. Temporal Residual Learning (TRL) further predicts only the residual structure left after CET from recent CED trajectories, rather than relearning the entire forecasting error. Extensive experiments across forecasting backbones and datasets show that EFC broadly improves forecasting performance while substantially controlling harmful over correction.

Abstract: Contextual forecasting seeks to improve time series forecasting by incorporating forward-looking information, such as planned events, external conditions, and expert expectations. However, reliable evaluation remains difficult: existing benchmarks often have limited domain coverage, lack standardized history-future splits, or provide text that is not guaranteed to inform the future. We introduce GIFT-Eval-CTX, a benchmark that isolates whether forecasting methods can translate verified future information into accurate numerical trajectories. Built upon GIFT-Eval, GIFT-Eval-CTX contains 10,000 instances across 20 datasets. Each instance provides structured effects derived from the realized future: Macro effects describe horizon-wide behavior, while Micro effects specify localized changes. We construct these annotations with an agentic pipeline combining LLM-based discovery and deterministic code validation. We benchmark TSFMs, frontier LLMs, and tool-using agentic systems. The results show that structured effects reduce aggregate relative MASE by 40.7% for GPT-5.6 Sol and 29.6% for Claude Opus 4.8 relative to history-only prompting. The evaluated MoiraiAgent system achieves the best overall result. We further analyze the contributions of structured effects and agentic systems to performance, and identify opportunities for future research.

Abstract: We propose AutoMARS (Automatic Multi-Agent Risk Assessment), an agentic framework for automatic and scalable comparative risk assessment in supply chain networks. The framework enables end-to-end execution of analytical workflows by automatically planning tasks, coordinating specialized agents, invoking external analytical tools, and synthesizing domain-specific results into integrated risk evaluations. AutoMARS further supports scalable risk comparison across multiple locations by parallelizing independent analytical tasks. The framework adopts a multi-domain, multi-agent, and multi-tool architecture that integrates heterogeneous risk factors from socioeconomic, disaster, environmental, and transportation domains. Through coordinated agent interactions and tool integration, AutoMARS enables structured, systematic, and interpretable comparative analysis to support supply chain risk-aware location evaluation.

Abstract: We study the vehicle routing problem (VRP) with stochastic demands, where each client has an independent demand with a known distribution, and its realized demand is observed only on the first visit. We consider a priori and restocking policies that fix the client order before observing demands and serve each client's entire demand before first visiting the next. Gupta, Nagarajan, and Ravi (Oper. Res., 2012) developed randomized a priori $(α+1)$-approximation and $(α+2)$-approximation algorithms for splittable and unsplittable deliveries, respectively, where $α$ is the approximation ratio of a metric traveling salesman problem (TSP) algorithm. We improve these approximation ratios to $2$ and $3$ by using their replenishment rules with a TSP tour constructed via matroid parity. We also obtain deterministic a priori $(2+\varepsilon)$-approximation and $(3+\varepsilon)$-approximation algorithms by compressing the distributions of cumulative demands to select an initial stock in polynomial time. All guarantees are relative to the general adaptive optimum. We then establish matching lower bounds of $2$ and $3$ that hold even for the more general class of randomized restocking policies. Finally, we apply our matroid-parity construction to improve approximation ratios for several VRP variants with deterministic demands.

Abstract: Matching repair after utility changes can reuse valid observations, but new evaluations must respect matching capacity and may return out of order. We study announced invalidations with bounded, possibly reward-dependent reporting delays and pending evaluations that do not occupy future matching capacity. Residualload repair (RLR) combines sound outcome certificates with batched matching schedules for unequal sample deficits. Its complete dyadic quota schedule admits a sharp issue-round bound with coefficient cb < 1.607 relative to the terminal residual endpoint load, together with separate delay and evidence-lifetime bounds. RLR-P monitors complete issue-order prefixes without changing the sampling plan before acceptance. With a deterministic pure oracle, a single-repair coupling from the same drained initial state guarantees no increase in certification time, issued observations, or time to a reusable checkpoint. We also derive an information-load lower bound. On fixed priority-star markets with unknown Bernoulli gaps, PrioritySearch attains the history-adjusted first-order constant for expected certification time as δ {\sim} 0, under hypothesis-independent linear history scaling and sublogarithmic reporting delays. Paired simulations and measured-feedback replay quantify the trade-offs: in the replay, RLR-P has lower mean capped update-certification time than a monitored width-based baseline, at higher oracle CPU cost.

Abstract: Enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems record operations as transactions spread across hundreds of normalized relational tables. Extracting an operational key performance indicator (KPI) from this schema requires a separate, bespoke join for almost every metric. We show that an event log, a canonical (case, activity, timestamp) representation derived from the same tables, collapses this heterogeneity into one flat structure, from which KPI families reduce to reusable operations after a one-time mapping. Using standardized event logs built from hundreds of SAP S/4HANA customers under a shared activity ontology, we define three families of process-derived KPIs (volumes, durations, and rates) and extract them uniformly across customer systems for two common end-to-end organizational processes, order-to-cash and procure-to-pay. We normalize rates and screen series for minimum coverage to support comparison across customers of very different sizes. We then characterize heterogeneity across industries and tenants using descriptors derived directly from the canonical form, before analyzing the resulting KPI time series. The same process executes heterogeneously across customers and industries, yet this shared representation enables direct comparison of sales- and procurement-side signals, including lead times and order arrivals. Using this shared representation, we characterize which KPI families are forecastable and find a recurring ordering from volumes through durations to rates across both processes and a highly heterogeneous customer base; a pretrained time-series foundation model (Chronos) is competitive with classical baselines such as ARIMA and ETS on rate and duration series, while classical models retain an edge on volumes.

Abstract: Agentic buyers can cheaply fork a procurement task into many parallel negotiations, but concurrency is not free: every thread consumes resources, and simultaneous agreements create cancellation and commitment risk. We study a one-unit post-order sourcing problem with a single hard-deadline negotiation window, in which a planner jointly chooses the number of seller-facing negotiators and a common procurement price cap. The model combines a product-specific acceptance curve with fulfillment loss, per-thread cost, and excess-commitment cost. We establish three structural results. First, holding the per-thread acceptance target fixed, the marginal value of another negotiator decays geometrically, yielding a conditional concurrency threshold. Second, under a convex quantile curve, parallelism substitutes for concession: more concurrent negotiators imply a weakly lower per-thread acceptance target and price cap. Third, when prices are more dispersed, Agentic buyers benefit by searching harder for bargains, but suffer when they instead try to guarantee procurement by offering higher prices. We operationalize these results in the Concurrency-Aware Negotiation Optimizer (CANO), a deterministic optimizer that jointly determines the optimal negotiation concurrency and procurement price cap for an agentic procurement system. Across different analytic market configurations and extensive Monte Carlo, finite-data, non-Gaussian, and correlated-seller stress tests, CANO consistently outperforms common heuristic policies while validating the predicted structural properties.

Abstract: Most long-term time-series forecasting models map the look-back window directly to the full horizon in a single pass. While efficient, this design does not explicitly identify which historical states are most relevant to different future segments or exploit what followed those states. Analog forecasting addresses this by retrieving past states similar to the present and using their observed continuations, but single nearest matches can be unreliable and overlapping patches may produce redundant candidates. We propose DuoTS, a Dual-Context Time Series forecasting model that uses retrieved evidence without relying on it exclusively. DuoTS first produces a base forecast with a parallel patch encoder and linear prediction head, then progressively refines it one future patch at a time. Each refinement combines two views: a current context that attends to recent tokens and captures the latest dynamics, and a detail context that provides distinct retrieved analogs together with their subsequent trajectories. Patch-wise refinement allows the model to balance these views across the forecast horizon and associate each future segment with evidence appropriate to its temporal distance from the present. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets show that DuoTS achieves state-of-the-art performance, while ablations confirm the contribution of each context. The refinement mechanism is also model-agnostic, requiring only an encoded look-back window and the future-patch position, and can therefore be integrated into existing forecasting models.

Abstract: Large language models can translate business descriptions into optimization models, but executable code may misrepresent constraints or objectives. A solver can then return an optimal solution to the wrong problem. Even when the solution satisfies the intended operating rules, a better plan may exist. For organizations that repeatedly use optimization modeling, an LLM-based framework should produce accurate formulations at low cost and, ideally, run locally. We study how to verify improvements and allocate attempts across LLMs that differ in price and capability. We develop OSCAR (Optimization modeling by Simulator, Coder, And Reviewer), which uses an offline Simulator certified against labeled decision examples to compare candidates and continues searching beyond feasibility. We model the search for the next certified improvement as sequential decisions under unobserved difficulty: which LLMs to call and when to stop. In a simplified known-prior setting, we give conditions under which cost-ordered escalation is optimal. For general menus, we derive a prior-free competitive guarantee. On five benchmark problems, OSCAR achieves 95% to 100% accuracy at the reported settings using two small open-weight LLMs, each deployable locally on a single GPU. Their single-attempt accuracies average 29% and 48%. In five runs per problem, Codex and Claude Code incur average token costs 3.1 and 5.8 times OSCAR's, respectively. OSCAR supports open-weight models locally or in the cloud, depending on budget and confidentiality requirements. Firms should maintain labeled decision examples of feasible and infeasible decisions to clarify plain-language operating rules. OSCAR follows these labels when an LLM's interpretation conflicts with them. As LLM capabilities and prices change, OSCAR's simple operating rules and adjustable settings help firms adapt their model choices and benefit from these advances.

Abstract: Researchers frequently study interactions between two distinct types of actors, represented as bipartite networks. These networks exhibit dependence patterns that differ from those in one-mode networks and therefore require models tailored to their structure. This paper develops an additive and multiplicative effects (AME) framework for longitudinal bipartite data. First, I distinguish the dependence structure and specify the corresponding modeling assumptions. Second, I introduce the bipartite dynamic AME model and develop an estimation procedure based on block coordinate descent. Third, I incorporate a squared iterative method to improve computational efficiency. Using simulations and an application to global production networks, I show that the model improves coefficient estimation, more accurately recovers the data-generating process, and better captures the multiplicative latent structure. The model reveals evolving patterns in countries' global production engagement that are not captured by observed covariates or static specifications. I provide an R package, RAMEN, to facilitate implementation.

Abstract: Real-world optimization problems are difficult to model accurately because many objectives and constraints reside in domain experts' tacit knowledge, making them hard to formalize. As a result, optimization models often contain miscalibrated objectives, missing constraints, or omitted decision variables, leading to solutions that fail to reflect operational realities. We address this challenge by automatically repairing misspecified formulations using historical data consisting of past solutions and subsequent user overrides. Traditional approaches such as inverse optimization and constraint learning tend to overfit sparse data and produce complex formulations. Our central idea is to combine the reasoning capabilities and prior knowledge of LLMs with the formal grounding provided by optimization. We realize this idea through two complementary paradigms. Top-down, an LLM proposes structural repairs, including new constraints and variables, whose numerical parameters are calibrated and validated through optimization. Bottom-up, optimization infers cuts from observed decisions, which the LLM contextualizes into interpretable, generalizable modeling constraints. We evaluate our approach on 38 misspecification scenarios spanning nine classes of optimization problems, several drawn from real-world applications, and show that TACIT can repair 78.9% of them (vs. 60.5% for the best baseline).

Abstract: Modern semiconductor production relies on a globally distributed, multi-tier supply chain in which financial stress at one firm spreads with a delay and eventually affects the revenue, inventory, and profitability of the companies that design AI chips. Most firms see only their direct partners, and prior predictive research has mainly targeted market-based risk measures, so few tools forecast how supply chain stress will appear in reported financials. In this study, we propose a heterogeneous graph patch transformer that forecasts these quarterly changes one and two quarters ahead. Learning from a 15,186-company network over 60 quarters, the proposed model fuses quarterly fundamentals with macro-trade, event, and disaster signals through learned gates, carries risk across supplier, customer, ownership, and headquarters relations through typed, direction-specific propagation, and encodes the propagated histories with patch-based tokenization. In preliminary experiments on 116 focal semiconductor firms, the proposed model achieves the lowest error on every target at both horizons, and its profitability advantage widens at the two-quarter horizon. These forecasts can help supply chain managers and investors act before disruptions appear in reported financials.

Abstract: We study repeated prophet inequalities under prefix feedback. In each of $T$ rounds, a learner encounters fresh values drawn independently from $n$ boxes with unknown $[0,1]$-supported distributions in a fixed order and must irrevocably accept one, observing only the prefix up to its stopping box. Regret is measured against the optimal stopping policy that knows the distributions. We give an efficient algorithm achieving $\widetilde O(\sqrt{T})$ expected regret, matching the lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Our algorithm explores directly through near-optimal policies, combining empirical backward induction with box-specific reach bonuses. A relative-drop aggregation rule then exploits the nesting structure of observed prefixes to preserve exploration, thereby removing the polynomial dependence on the box number $n$. This resolves an open question posed by Liu et al. (2025).

Abstract: Many modern systems involve the strategic interaction of multiple agents. In such settings, observed actions typically reflect equilibrium behavior under utilities that are only partially known. Recovering these hidden utilities from data - the central goal of inverse game theory - is key for prediction, counterfactual analysis, and mechanism design. However, existing approaches based on inverse variational inequalities are highly sensitive to noisy and inconsistent equilibrium observations, thus limiting their applicability. In this paper, we resolve this issue by introducing a game-theoretic suboptimality loss that measures the aggregate utility gain players could obtain by unilaterally deviating from an observed strategy profile. First, we show that this loss is convex and admits an efficient decomposition into player-wise best-responses. Second, we show this loss is sandwiched between the predictability loss and the inverse variational inequality loss, making it a tractable surrogate for equilibrium prediction. Third, we develop a mirror descent algorithm to minimize it and demonstrate on a heterogeneous networked Cournot competition that our approach remains accurate under noisy observations and inconsistent equilibrium data while inverse variational inequality methods produce degenerate estimates.

Abstract: Suppose an online algorithm is given an unbiased $p$-sample of its input as offline advice; can the algorithm exploit the sample to achieve beyond-worst-case performance? We study this online algorithms with a sample (OAS) model. We show a tight $O\left(\log (1/p) \cdot \log m + \log n\right)$-competitive algorithm for set cover, exponentially improving upon the $O\left(1/p \cdot \log (mn)\right)$ guarantee of Gupta et al. (SODA'24) and answering an open question therein. Our techniques extend to covering integer programs and non-metric facility location, also yielding tight bounds for these problems. Further, we give an $O(\log (1/p)/ \log \log (1/p))$-competitive algorithm for metric facility location, answering an open question of Argue et al. (NeurIPS'22). We then introduce and study the robust variant of the OAS model, in which an adversary is allowed to arbitrarily modify $k$ elements of the $p$-sample. For set cover, covering integer programs, and non-metric facility location, we obtain a tight competitive ratio of $O\left(\log (k/p) \cdot \log m + \log n\right)$. For metric facility location and Steiner tree, we obtain tight competitive ratios of $O\left(\log (k/p) / \log \log (k/p) \right)$ and $O\left(\log (k/p)\right)$ respectively. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first results for robust algorithms in the OAS setting.

Abstract: We devise a polynomial-time $3.159$-approximation algorithm for the metric unsplittable Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem. We build on the Relative Greedy Algorithm suggested by Traub (2025), which can be considered as a variant of the LP rounding algorithm of Friggstad, Mousavi, Rahgoshay, and Salavatipour (2025). Our main ingredient is the Average Greedy Algorithm, a new algorithm that controls both tour costs and the coverage of clients with high demand. This additional control enables a sharper averaging argument for the cost of subsequent greedy choices. Similarly to Zhao and Xiao (2026), combining the Average Greedy with variants of tour partitioning and a matching algorithm yields the final approximation guarantee.

Abstract: We introduce GenOR-Twin, a neuro-symbolic framework that bridges the translation gap between unstructured operational logs and rigorous mathematical optimization. Our architecture uniquely positions Large Language Models as semantic translators rather than direct solvers, ensuring that the system retains the feasibility guarantees of exact combinatorial methods. { \color{red}We design a dynamic constraint injection mechanism (the runtime translation of qualitative disruption events into formal mathematical constraints) that allows the system to structurally modify the optimization problem's feasibility region in real-time based on qualitative human inputs. The resulting bidirectional coupling---where operational observations update the virtual model state and optimized decisions are reflected back into the Knowledge Graph---satisfies the synchronization requirement of a proper Digital Twin. The framework features an adaptive decision policy} that automatically selects between low-complexity schedule repair and full re-optimization by analyzing the available system slack. Finally, we demonstrate the generalization of this approach across six distinct optimization domains, {\color{red}turning static models into resilient systems that adapt to the operational uncertainty and variability of real-world environments.}

Abstract: Environmental controversies in global supply chains pose significant risks for global buyers. This study examines whether overseas suppliers' exposure to buyers' artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled environmental governance reduces supplier environmental controversies. Drawing on organizational information processing theory and signaling theory, we investigate how suppliers' exposure to AI-enabled governance influences their environmental controversies and the institutional contingencies under which this effect varies. Using text analysis to measure buyer AI-enabled environmental governance, we analyze panel data on 2,505 suppliers of U.S.-listed firms across 41 countries from 2020 to 2024 with multidimensional fixed-effects models. We find that suppliers' exposure to buyer AI-enabled environmental governance is negatively associated with supplier environmental controversies in the following year. This negative relationship is stronger in supplier countries with higher AI readiness and regulatory quality. The study contributes to research on AI-enabled sustainability governance and sustainable supply chain risk management.

Abstract: We introduce cooperative integer programming games (CIPGs), in which agents pool budget constraints to accomplish indivisible tasks jointly and the characteristic function maps every coalition to the optimal value of a pooled integer program. Our goal is to identify an optimal coalition structure (OCS) and a stable one (OSCS). We derive a stability inequality that keeps each formed coalition in the Core with respect to itself, and present two mixed-integer OCS formulations, aggregated and disaggregated, proving that the disaggregated formulation is integer-equivalent yet yields a tighter LP relaxation. Building on the stability inequality we develop lifted stability cuts, several separation strategies inside a cutting-plane algorithm, an SCS-feasible primal heuristic that constructs warm starts with guaranteed stability, and a payoff-refinement step computing the Shapley value and the nucleolus of every formed coalition. On benchmark cooperative knapsack games, the method certifies optimality with up to 16 players and reaches MIP gaps below 1% at 30 players while evaluating 766 of the roughly $10^9$ coalition values.

Abstract: Supplier selection affects not only operating performance but also the payable network entered by a new obligation. This paper develops the Compensability Capacity Assessment (CCA), an ex ante buyer-supplier measure of expected gross payable relief and its likely timing. CPM provides the bounded structural kernel; concave CCA variants add bilateral invoice capacity. The measure is tested on 749,952 analytical invoices issued during 2012-2023, using frozen nine-month histories and future weekly, monthly, quarterly, semester, and annual windows. Cycle-restricted and path-enabled clearing are independent outcome-generating environments used to validate the measure, not technologies compared by this study. Across seven fully observed quarters in 2022-2023, log-CCA has a median Spearman correlation of 0.638 with future integrated relief; persistent relations carry 93.5% of relief, and the highest-scoring relation captures 92.5% of buyer-specific best relief. Predictability remains positive from week to year, with quarterly recalibration providing the best operating balance between signal, coverage, and timeliness. A timing analysis shows that, across the two validation environments, 89-91% of attributed relief occurs within seven days of invoice issue and 94-96% within thirty days, on average about sixteen days before contractual maturity. Log-CCA correlates 0.564 with thirty-day relief and 0.566 with relief-days. Its highest quartile has a 96.5% median probability of thirty-day compensation, compared with 57.6% in the lowest quartile. Conditional waiting-time prediction is weaker, so CCA should rank timely compensation opportunity rather than forecast an exact payment date. The findings link supplier placement, financial circularity, and working-capital exposure while motivating deployment, causal testing, and quarterly drift monitoring.