statistical model designers

Abstract: We study Boolean entropy and Fisher information in information inequalities and the Boolean central limit theorem. We prove a fractional Stam inequality for the Boolean Fisher information associated with arbitrary fractional partitions of subset sums, and derive an entropy power inequality for sums of Boolean independent random variables and its weighted version. We then establish a Boolean analogue of Barron's entropy convergence result along the Boolean central limit theorem: Boolean entropy converges to the entropy of the Rademacher law if and only if the initial entropy is finite. Furthermore, under a finite fourth moment, in the Boolean central limit theorem, we obtain \[ Γ(μ_n\mid\mathbf b)= \frac{m_4(μ)-1-m_3(μ)^2}{2}\frac{\log n}{n} +o\!\left(\frac{\log n}{n}\right), \] with an explicit example showing sharpness. For symmetric laws with finite fourth moment and finite Boolean Fisher information, \[ Ψ(μ_n\mid\mathbf b) =2\bigl(m_4(μ)-1\bigr)\frac{\log n}{n} +o\left(\frac{\log n}{n}\right). \] Our approach is based on the Nevanlinna representation of Cauchy transforms.

Abstract: We discuss three simple connections between generative diffusion and optimal transport. First, the joint law of the data and of their Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noising is, at every time, the solution of an entropic optimal-transport problem, at a temperature set by the noise level. Backward diffusion can consequently be read as an annealing which gradually decreases the entropic regularization. Second, we study the speciation transition--how the modes of the data distribution emerge during generation--and compare how it happens in diffusion and flow matching with respect to optimal transport. Using Gaussian mixtures as high-dimensional example, we show that the dynamical instability through which diffusion and flow matching separate the modes becomes, for optimal transport, an exponentially thin boundary layer at the beginning of generation, which is rounded by entropic regularization. Third, considering a generic forward dynamics with a general confining potential, we show that the backward process driven by the score also satisfies a drift-based variational principle whose minimal cost is the entropy difference between initial and final distributions.

Abstract: Accurate posterior prediction need not require accurate approximation of Bayesian updates. We prove that an unbounded gap between the update maps can coexist with vanishing predictive KL for every fixed finite $K\ge2$ in a stationary symmetric Gaussian HMM. Exact Bayesian mixing and an explicit deterministic radial filter act on the same $K-1$ belief coordinates. As $q\to0^+$, their separation in centered logits in the worst case grows at least linearly in the natural confidence scale $L_K(q)$, while their categorical $D_{\mathrm{KL}}(\mathrm{exact}\|\mathrm{radial})$ vanishes at the same explicit witness. Along stationary HMM trajectories, the expected terminal KL between filtered posteriors also converges to zero at $H(q)=\lceil-\log(q)/c\rceil+1$. Typical blocks without switches drive both filters into a common confidence cone, where softmax curvature suppresses their disagreement; a single Gaussian maximal event controls adaptive noise. A sweep with equally spaced Gaussians over $K\in\{2,4,8\}$ illustrates the opposing trends, and binary controls at long horizons compare saturating and nonsaturating recurrences. The result isolates two missing links between internal update gaps and predictive cost: the contribution of separating states to expected loss and decoder sensitivity. Thus even an unbounded internal update gap does not by itself certify predictive failure. The construction is fixed in $K$ and does not provide a universal criterion for when compression is harmless or characterize when internal gaps must incur task loss.