sports analytics teams

Abstract: Dense pass surfaces give, for every pitch cell, whether a pass played there would arrive, whether the carrier would choose it, and what the possession would then be worth. The networks that draw them read the state as a raster of per-cell counts, losing where inside a cell each player stands. LiDAR detectors, bird's-eye-view perception and graph weather models move entity features onto a grid, binning each entity to a cell or learning the transfer. We evaluate the interpolated form: each player's features are scattered bilinearly onto the grid at the player's measured coordinates, so the surface loss trains the per-player encoder end to end. Those systems adopt an interface; this paper measures one. On 53,628 passes from the 2022 World Cup, painting improves selection likelihood over the same core fed rasters alone by about a quarter of a nat: in every match of an eight-fold cross-validation, with every arm tuned over five seeds, and after retraining on seven Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga matches from another provider. Thirteen pre-specified studies locate the gain: painting the nine raw player features with no encoder carries three quarters of it, and the learned encoder and message passing add a smaller, resolved increment. Painting also helps the original SoccerMap and a canonical U-Net, whereas offset channels, a finer raster, an attention painter and a raster-free decoder do not. Frozen across the provider boundary the likelihood advantage is lost; injected tracking error compresses it. These results concern observed-endpoint prediction, not calibrated evaluation of hypothetical passes.

Abstract: Video highlight detection aims to identify temporally important segments that capture the most informative or engaging events in a video. Reliable prediction therefore requires not only discriminative segment representations but also preservation of the temporal relationships among neighboring and distant segments. The information bottleneck principle has proven effective for learning compact and task-relevant representations, yet it has not been explored for video highlight detection, and applying conventional formulations directly would overlook inter-segment relational structure and distort highlight relevant temporal organization during compression. We therefore introduce the Sliced Gromov-Monge Gap (SGMG), a structure aware regularizer that measures the excess relational distortion induced by a prescribed source-to-bottleneck mapping relative to an optimal sliced structural correspondence. Building on SGMG, we develop SGWIB, an information-bottleneck framework for single-modal video highlight detection that learns compact bottleneck representations while preserving inter-segment temporal structure. We further introduce Home-Away-Related Contextual Pseudo-Labels and a contextual disentanglement module that reduce sports-specific contextual bias by separating highlight oriented information from contextual patterns. Experiments on MrHiSum and MoSu show that SGWIB attains the best Kendall's tau, Spearman's rho, mAP@50, and mAP@30 among the compared single-modal methods on both datasets. On MrHiSum, the visual model improves the strongest previous results by 0.031, 0.031, 0.87, and 0.75 on these four metrics, respectively. These results show that structure-aware information-bottleneck regularization combined with contextual disentanglement improves segment-level highlight prediction.

Abstract: Human trajectory prediction requires modeling both individual motion patterns and social interactions among agents. Existing methods have made substantial progress by using attention mechanisms, graph structures, and temporal encoders to capture dynamic social context. However, most of them primarily focus on how social information is encoded, while paying less explicit attention to how the encoded social context should take effect during future trajectory generation. In this paper, we argue that dynamic social encoding does not necessarily imply dynamic social activation. The same interaction context may require different activation strengths across future horizons and scene densities: social cues should be strengthened when interaction evidence is strong, but suppressed when they are weak or noisy. To address this issue, we propose GEAR, a generation-aware bias activation model for human trajectory prediction. Built upon a bias-decomposed trajectory generation formulation, GEAR dynamically activates the individual-motion and social-resonance bias terms at each future step before final trajectory composition. This allows the model to explicitly control when and how strongly individual and social bias components participate in generation. Experiments on ETH-UCY, SDD, and NBA show that GEAR consistently improves the resonance-based baseline and achieves competitive state-of-the-art performance. Further analyses of activation patterns and density-grouped errors validate the importance of calibrating encoded social context during trajectory generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/11isnotavailable/GEAR.git.

Abstract: Large language models are being organized into multi-agent systems with specialized roles, but whether such specialization produces distinct forecasts and whether subsequent synthesis improves utility remains unclear. In this study, we carried out a live, prospective evaluation over the final 56 matches of the information-dense 2026 FIFA World Cup, keeping a frontier foundation model constant while assigning two primary forecasting agents contrasting specialist roles: a quantitative specialist focusing on structured performance statistics and a news specialist focusing on current injuries, tactics and information from press conferences. Their forecasts were then reviewed by a separate critic before being combined by a meta-agent, resulting in a sequential four-agent model. Forecasts from the betting market served as an external benchmark. The news specialist obtained the highest mean probability-weighted Top-3 utility and matched the betting market in Top-3 exact-score hits. Nevertheless, the two specialist forecasters agreed on at least two of the three scorelines in 50 out of 56 matches, and the meta-agent never generated more than one scoreline outside the specialists' forecast set. These findings show that rapidly changing, unstructured information can provide a valuable forecasting signal alongside structured statistics, whereas adding critic and meta-agent stages does not necessarily create complementary information or improve on the strongest specialist.

Abstract: Velocity-aware pitch control is standard, but under a broadcast viewport half the players are off screen and on-screen velocities come from a drifting calibration. We ask at which layer of broadcast off-ball analysis velocity changes the answer. Inheriting our off-screen imputation protocol (three Metrica matches, 44 m viewport, block-bootstrap CIs), we score four velocity regimes -- none, viewport-legal observed, true-for-visible, true-for-all -- against a velocity-aware ground truth at three layers: imputation, the control surface, and team verdicts. Velocity is nearly useless for imputation (-0.2 pp against a 12--14 pp velocity-free surface MAE), first-order for the surface (-1.5 to -1.8 pp, 11--15% of that MAE), and ten times smaller for verdicts (-0.12 to -0.19 pp). The velocity that matters is the visible channel: perfect occluded-player velocity adds 2--6% of the visible gain, and no last-seen decay policy we tested exceeds that. Omitting velocity blurs the surface (per-frame |e| 2.2--2.6 pp) with small time-averaged bias (per cell <=0.4 pp), whereas imputation error is a structured bias against the defending team's deep zone (5--9 pp). At a fixed velocity window, a noise ladder of eleven jitter settings, including sigma_v-matched pairs, is ordered to first order by one velocity-noise axis sigma_v with break-even ~1 m/s; eleven SoccerNet-GSR clips from one match through our pipeline measure sigma_v=1.65 m/s yet recover 24--36% of the benefit: 43% of the variance is frame-common, which the surface tolerates, and the residual is heavy-tailed and clustered, which Gaussian controls matched on component RMS do not reproduce (+0.03 vs. +0.36). The share of velocity-free error that velocity removes grows with viewport width (7% at 36 m, 21% at 60 m): fix imputation on tight shots, velocity on wide ones. Code and logs are released.