sports analysts

Abstract: The aggregation of many lay estimates often outperforms individual expert judgment, a phenomenon known as the wisdom of crowds. While this is usually attributed to the independence of estimates, an even stronger effect arises through deliberation: averaging the consensus estimates of small deliberating groups outperforms the classical wisdom of crowds, with individual judgments themselves also becoming more accurate after deliberation. Whether these improvements transfer to large language models deliberating amongst themselves is unknown. Here we adapt a three-stage deliberation paradigm previously used with human participants for use with large language models from three different families, and test it across four domains of increasing real-world stakes: visual numerical estimation (Study 1), peer review of machine-learning papers (Study 2), detection of hidden malicious behavior by an artificial intelligence agent (Study 3), and sports forecasting against a real prediction market (Study 4). Across domains, deliberation reduced collective error beyond passive aggregation of independent responses, and post-deliberation individual judgments retained this collective gain. Notably, the advantage required model diversity: groups composed of clones of a single model did not benefit from deliberating. These results establish machine deliberation as a general-purpose aggregation mechanism, and point to diversity as an active ingredient.

Abstract: In this paper, we propose ReactVAU, a Slow-Fast Decoupled Framework for real-time streaming Video Anomaly Understanding (VAU). Existing VAU methods rely on offline inference with global temporal sampling, which violates causality and prevents deployment in live surveillance streams. Conversely, general streaming video models satisfy causal access but dilute rare transient anomalies during memory compression and often invoke heavyweight MLLMs uniformly over long normal intervals. React VAU addresses this gap with three synergistic components: a lightweight Fast Detection Module based on Spatial Grid Folding (SGF) for continuous anomaly filtering; an Anomaly-Aware Persistent Memory (AAPM) that protects critical visual cues from temporal decay; and a heavyweight Slow Reasoning Module that remains dormant during normal streams and is awakened only by suspicious events for semantic verification and causal description. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that ReactVAU operates under strict streaming constraints while simultaneously achieving competitive performance in both anomaly detection and causal reasoning, alongside significantly enhanced computational efficiency by minimizing heavyweight MLLM invocations. Project page is available at https://huiyuiui.github.io/React_VAU/