simulation developers

Abstract: Language-model agents are increasingly used as synthetic people in surveys and social simulations, yet their apparent realism is often judged from population averages or distributional similarity. We tested what such evidence actually establishes by comparing Claude, Codex and Kimi under four prespecified prompt designs with matched farmer decisions from China and four African countries. Some configurations reproduced observed means and adoption rates. However, their person-level predictions were weak; their decisions clustered around typical values and policy-relevant extremes were largely missing. Most strikingly, a simple generator fitted only to the observed marginal dis- tribution, and given no information about any farmer, achieved greater distributional similarity than every language-model configuration. Prompt additions produced conditional gains rather than uni- versal improvement: results varied with model, outcome, population and validation target. We call this the average-farmer illusion: a synthetic population can look realistic while failing to repro- duce who does what or how behaviour varies. We provide a claim-matched validation framework and reusable modular prompts that turn prompt construction into an auditable experimental process. Population-level resemblance should therefore be treated as the start of validation, not as evidence of individual simulation.

Abstract: World models, systems that generate what happens next given current environmental conditions, are increasingly being implemented with multi-modal generation in mind. However, generating multiple modalities simultaneously, such as visual simulations alongside physical state predictions in the form of text, introduces the risk of cross-modal inconsistency. Tested separately, both outputs may look convincing while still disagreeing: a model can calculate that a ball should rebound in one modality, then generate no rebound in another modality, to say nothing of diverging from real-world dynamics entirely. In this work we focus on two failures explicitly: \emph{Internal misalignment}, the disagreement between the world model's generated video and the same world model's prediction in a different modalities, and \emph{external misalignment} the disagreement between the world model's generation and an analytic physical environment. We derive common contracts of event, magnitude, timing, and construct a physics grounded pipeline to make comparisons measurable in both external and internal settings. We then ask whether progressively supplying the model's own contract (the A ladder for the internal setting) or a corrected physical contract (the B ladder for the external setting) closes the respective gaps. Across four mechanisms and 20 settings, we find that while language answers all 22 text probes correctly with respect to the true environment, the neutral video is often in disagreement, suggesting that the current unified backbones may not be capable of correct reasoning, internal consistency, and external physical fidelity all at once.