risk management teams

Abstract: Given the enormous number of claims to be checked, verifiable legal AI requires scalable, cost-effective models that answer the practical needs of law. System One decision models are built on large language models but, instead of generating text, return a calibrated probability for each option. This suits the verification of legal authority, where the question is closed: a given holding, or none of them. We test whether such models abstain when the correct authority is missing. We extend CaseHOLD with an abstention condition in which the correct holding is replaced in 1,670 of 5,314 items, and compare four decision models with six generative LLMs. When no option is correct, generative LLMs still pick one in 38-86% of items; the most cautious decision model does so in 30%. On standard CaseHOLD, a decision model matches the best generative LLM (88.1% vs. 88.2%) at 1/55 of the cost. Accepting that LLM's answer only when a decision model agrees halves its wrong citations, and distilling a decision model's probabilities into Qwen3-8B, without labels, yields a well-calibrated local model. Legal AI should be judged by its wrong citations, not by accuracy alone.

Abstract: In this paper, we study quantile distributional policy evaluation, where the return distribution under a given policy is approximated by the quantile Bellman fixed point $\bmη_m$. We investigate the statistical accuracy of estimating $\bmη_m$ across quantile resolutions under Wasserstein distances. Assuming access to a generative model, we construct a quantile fixed point estimator $\bmη_m^{(n)}$ from an empirical Markov decision process and establish non-asymptotic error bounds under Wasserstein distances. When reward densities are uniformly bounded away from zero, we obtain a root-$n$ high-probability bound simultaneously over all resolutions $m$ and all Wasserstein orders $1\le p\le\infty$. When reward densities vanish at the support endpoints, we show that continuity and endpoint monotonicity suffice to preserve the same resolution-independent rate for $1\le p\le2$. For $p>2$, we establish a root-$n$ bound with coefficient $m^{1/2-1/p}$, together with a slower, resolution-independent $n^{-1/p}$ bound for every finite $p>2$. We further obtain resolution-independent $W_\infty$ consistency governed by the continuity modulus of reward quantile functions. To investigate the sharpness of these bounds, we characterize the exact local asymptotic minimax risk at each fixed resolution as the expected Wasserstein-coordinate norm of the efficient Gaussian limit and prove that our estimator attains it. We then examine the resolution dependence of this optimal local risk. A regular one-state instance has resolution-independent local risk constants, whereas a single endpoint-vanishing two-state instance exhibits growth of order $m^{1/2-1/p}$, up to logarithmic factors along a resolution subsequence, for every $p>2$.

Abstract: Language-model agents are increasingly asked to run experiments, yet benchmarks rarely measure whether those experiments improve the decisions they are meant to inform. We introduce CrashGym, a deterministic, replayable limit-order-book simulator in which an agent must choose between a deleveraging intervention and a liquidity backstop for a market about to suffer a shock-triggered crash. Before committing, the agent may query intervention experiments in a laboratory realization of the market. Its choice is then scored on an independently seeded target realization in which the simulator executes every feasible intervention, so regret relative to the best intervention is computed by directly simulating every alternative on the same target repeats, with no human or model-based judging. The simulator implements each amplification channel---persistent price impact, liquidity withdrawal, margin-driven liquidation, and an evolving strategy mix---as an explicit mechanism that can be switched on in stages. In a prospectively specified study on 24 newly sampled worlds, laboratory access reduces the mean regret of the one deployment with a complete record (Luna) from 8.878 to 3.785, a paired reduction of 5.092 utility units (nominal 95% world-bootstrap interval: 1.028--9.507), or 57.4% of the OBSERVE-ONLY mean. Prospective comparisons for two further deployments are incomplete; in a separate exploratory study, mean regret is lower with laboratory access for all four deployments evaluated. A laboratory whose strategy mix evolves endogenously yields no established advantage over one with a fixed mix. CrashGym thus measures the value of experimentation as avoided decision loss and lets simulator detail be judged by the decisions it supports.

Abstract: We introduce a two-stage data-driven neural framework for discovering dynamically admissible extreme scenarios. Rather than assuming prior knowledge of the governing equations, the first stage infers the effective dynamical constraints directly from observational data. When the underlying physical system possesses suitable symmetries, the learned dynamics can be represented in a geometry-agnostic form, independent of any fixed grid, coordinate system, dimensionality, and intrinsic curvature. In the second stage, a physics-informed neural-search uses this learned dynamics to uncover rare, high-impact coherent structures that may not have appeared in the original observations. We demonstrate this framework through representative examples of increasing dimensionality and geometric complexity. Starting from a traditionally learned Duffing dynamics, we find a homoclinic pulse as a plausible localized extreme scenario. Next, since the same equation also appears in the stationary nonlinear Schrodinger system, with the coordinate interpreted as space instead of time, this pulse becomes a standing soliton. We then retrain the first stage using a geometry-agnostic neural representation, enabling the learned dynamics to be lifted to higher-dimensional space to obtain higher-dimensional solitary profile, known as Townes soliton. Finally, with a Liouville system, we demonstrate that dynamics learned from data on a (1+1)-dimensional Lorentzian quasi-manifold can be transferred to a (2+0)-dimensional Euclidean manifold to identify an instanton. Our approach can be applied to other coherent spatiotemporal structures, including kinks, rogue waves, compactons, peakons, and potentially even singularities, with applications in risk analysis, nonlinear forecasting, and anomaly detection.

Abstract: Scenario planning is a foresight practice in which analysts construct a small set of plausible futures and prepare an organisation for each. Each scenario is a narrative that must be plausible, internally consistent, relevant and challenging, and the set as a whole must be differentiated. The practice remains manual: a workshop (i.e., a facilitated meeting in which a small group of experts writes the narratives) considers only the factors it has time for, carries the biases of the experts who run it, and cannot be redone whenever conditions change. In this paper, we automate scenario planning by casting it as a diversity planning problem, in which two scenarios differ when they end in different narratives on the analyst's drivers. The result is a set of scenarios, one for each narrative that the topic can reach within a budget. Our implementation, Polyscene, is a generic engine that generates scenarios from a topic. We use geopolitical conflicts and shipping-route disruptions as case studies. For the first, we build the planning problem's initial state from the GDELT Project so it reflects current relationships among the countries involved. Polyscene then generates scenarios showing how relationships among those countries change. With a board of six countries as of 1 January 2021 and a budget of five events, the conflict set puts five of the 15 country pairs at war, and each of the three wars that break out among these countries by 1 January 2026 ends a scenario. For the second, we build the initial state from ship traffic, a supply-pressure index, and the news, and Polyscene generates scenarios showing what a closed or diverted route could do to a manufacturer's parts stock. With four routes per board and the same date and budget, each set includes three outcomes, and the Suez Canal set includes the March 2021 blockage and the December 2023 Red Sea container diversion.

Abstract: Forecasting an unresolved event requires finding relevant evidence and deciding how strongly it supports each outcome. Yet outcome-based training of Large Language Model (LLM) forecasters often begins with preassembled evidence at a single prediction date, leaving evidence acquisition outside the learning loop. We introduce AlphaBet, an agentic reinforcement learning (RL) framework that trains a single LLM policy to search, reason, and report probabilities across multiple pre-resolution dates. Each dated forecast is scored by a proper scoring rule against the eventual outcome, allowing one resolved event to supervise decisions under different information states. We decompose forecasting regret into an evidence-acquisition gap and a probability-reporting gap, and show that Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO)'s standard-deviation normalization can distort the reporting target under multi-class proper scores. On GLM-4.5-Air, AlphaBet reduces the Brier score from 0.731 to 0.626 on Forecast-Dojo and from 0.612 to 0.528 on FutureX. Controlled ablations attribute these gains to multi-date training and show that they come from improvements in both information acquisition and probability reporting. Our empirical results validate that GRPO's std normalization degrades proper-scoring-rule performance while leaving top-outcome accuracy largely unchanged.

Abstract: We propose the Time-partitioning Gaussian Process Mixture Model (TPGPMM), a Bayesian nonparametric framework for identifying persistent regimes and modelling nonstationary dependence in time series. The model combines an adaptive Pitman--Yor prior on contiguous segmentations with regime-specific Gaussian processes, without imposing Markovian within-regime dependence. Learning the Pitman--Yor discount parameter allows adaptation to homogeneous and heterogeneous regime lengths. A split--merge Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler with exact Gibbs boundary updates jointly learns change points and model hyperparameters, quantifying uncertainty over segmentations and within-regime dynamics. With an RBF kernel and a fixed, conservative observation-noise level, TPGPMM favours sparse segmentations that distinguish persistent shifts from transient shocks. Simulations demonstrate recovery of the regime structure. Applications to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and the 10-year United States Treasury yield identify regimes aligned with major market and monetary-policy events. Variants that estimate observation noise improve predictive accuracy relative to the main specification, but can produce less sparse or less event-aligned segmentations. A variant with regime-specific means fits better than a fitted stationary Gaussian process and forecasts about as accurately. These results highlight a trade-off between interpretable regime identification and predictive accuracy.

Abstract: Physics-informed neural networks provide a flexible framework for learning parametric PDE solution families without labeled data, yet preserving accurate derivatives across heterogeneous regimes remains challenging. Structured neural solvers offer compact representations, but restrictive conditional parameterizations can limit adaptation across the solution family. We introduce BeTINN, a structured conditional architecture extending time-induced modulation through multi-directional time-parameter conditioning and a joint residual pathway. We evaluate BeTINN on the Heston stochastic-volatility PDE, a demanding parametric problem with mixed derivatives and economically relevant first- and second-order sensitivities. BeTINN improves joint accuracy across normalized option value and key sensitivity metrics relative to our baselines. Controlled ablations characterize the roles of its architectural components. We further find that validation physics loss is informative but does not fully determine differential fidelity, and that accurate solution values can coexist with localized derivative errors. These results support structured conditional adaptation and motivate derivative-aware evaluation when sensitivities are downstream quantities of interest.

Abstract: We study Bayesian optimization of the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of an expensive black-box function that depends on a decision and an environmental variable. Existing no-regret algorithms assume that the correct Gaussian process (GP) kernel and its hyperparameters are known. In practice, however, they must be estimated from limited data, often yielding a misspecified surrogate. This is especially damaging for CVaR because misspecification can distort the estimated tail-risk and thus lead to catastrophic decisions. We propose HE-CV-UCB, the first no-regret algorithm for CVaR Bayesian optimization with unknown GP hyperparameters. Given a finite candidate set containing a well-specified model, HE-CV-UCB adaptively eliminates those inconsistent with the observed data, actively queries where the survivors disagree, and returns a design that is robust across the surviving candidates. We prove that it attains cumulative regret matching the oracle rate of CV-UCB up to a factor depending only on the candidate set's size. Across synthetic benchmarks and three real-world applications, HE-CV-UCB achieves competitive performance and frequently outperforms existing CVaR Bayesian optimization methods.

Abstract: Prediction-market prices combine traders' judgments about future outcomes, but their errors may be concentrated in particular price ranges and change as settlement approaches. Prior cross-category evidence shows that Polymarket weather markets have larger pricing bias than other major categories, without separating low-price longshots from high-price favorites. This study compares the two ranges at different horizons in daily maximum-temperature markets. Event-level probability scores, cubic B-spline recalibration, and Buy-NO tests are used to examine the form and effect of the bias. Longshot overpricing mainly occurs at distant horizons, whereas favorite overpricing becomes much stronger during the final 1-12 hours and is nearly one order of magnitude larger. Event-level scores improve toward the daily temperature peak, while simple recalibration yields no statistically significant gains. The Buy-NO results in the corresponding time windows also show that the main pricing error is concentrated at the favorite end.

Abstract: Feature selection is a central problem in high-dimensional financial regression, where large numbers of engineered variables and strong correlations among predictors reduce model stability and interpretability. $L_1$ regularization (Lasso) is widely used for sparse regression, but its shrinkage can be restrictive when informative signals are spread across correlated variables. Exact sparse regression avoids this shrinkage but requires solving a combinatorial optimization problem that is computationally difficult and is typically fit to minimize in-sample rather than out-of-sample error. This paper presents a feature selection framework based on Monte Carlo Tree Search with Generalized Nested Rollout Policy Adaptation (GNRPA). Feature selection is formulated as a sequential decision process, and candidate subsets are scored by their out-of-sample validation performance rather than training error. The method also supports a lexicographic objective accounting for subset size and multicollinearity. We study this approach on a contemporaneous explanatory regression task: explaining the weekly return of the NASDAQ-100 index from 1,072 engineered features spanning market, macroeconomic, and factor data. This isolates the value of subset selection under multicollinearity from the separate problem of predictive forecasting. On this task, the proposed method identifies sparse feature subsets with higher out-of-sample explanatory power than an optimized Lasso baseline, reaching an out-of-sample $R^2$ of 0.6961 versus 0.6313 for Lasso. These results suggest that Monte Carlo Tree Search is a practical alternative to convex regularization for sparse explanatory feature selection in financial regression, with potential value for factor attribution and risk decomposition where transparency matters as much as out-of-sample fit.

Abstract: System One models output calibrated probabilities over typed answers such as categorical choices, ordinal levels, or binary outcomes, via a non-generative interface. Software can act on these probabilities through thresholds, cost-weighted choices, and escalation rules. Consequently, if these probabilities are miscalibrated or wording-sensitive, the software ma take unintended actions leaving human operators with no textual rationale to inspect. Current evaluations largely report accuracy and calibration on public classification datasets without a clear reference. We present TypedBench, a benchmark for typed decision models like Jev built from seven policy-labelled generators and nine evaluation suites. We report accuracy as median and range across paraphrases, and calibration error relative to the finite-sample noise floor of a matched, perfectly calibrated predictor. We assess probability quality through selective prediction, ordinal proper scoring rules, and realised cost under asymmetric cost matrices. We evaluate a hosted model, an open encoder, and a family of open decoders spanning 0.8B-9B parameters on identical items. The hosted model follows the stated policy but is wording-sensitive and systematically underconfident; under asymmetric costs, using its probabilities can be worse than taking its top answer. Decoders route exactly and are slow as options or questions are added. The decoder is least accurate on policy questions and degrades with more options. Overall, typed decision models must be evaluated jointly on policy adherence, wording robustness, probability quality, and induced decision outcomes.

Abstract: Research in data visualization of artificial intelligence (AI) models has historically focused on enhancing trust through visual explanations of AI. The trustworthiness line of work was built at least partially on an assumption that humans were critical users unlikely to adopt AI technology. It is increasingly clear that human trust levels in AI span, in fact, a wide range from critical to over-reliant. There is an urgent need to support both trust and healthy skepticism in AI solutions. We argue that it is healthy for humans to adopt a skeptical view both on the results of AI models and on the use of such AI models. We share our thoughts on the rising phenomenon of over-reliance on AI models, the risks and opportunities in using AI models, and the role of data visualization in over-reliance situations where humans are not motivated to engage in critical thinking.

Abstract: Risk regulation imposes directional constraints on scores; we adopt their strict per-input form -- the score monotone non-decreasing in every exposure input -- as a normative commitment. Deployed pipelines -- monotone hand-crafted aggregates feeding sign-constrained gradient boosting -- already satisfy it by composition, so constrained-versus-unconstrained comparisons price a guarantee the incumbent has for free. We instead hold admissibility fixed on both sides and measure what learning the aggregation is worth. Our instrument is a recurrent network whose state is classical risk statistics (an exponentially weighted moving average and a high-water mark with learned transforms), monotone by construction in every input and per MC-dropout sample. The central finding, by functional regression, is a subsumption boundary: a learned monotone channel reproduces the geometrically weighted separable family of hand-crafted statistics, one channel per member, to Spearman $ρ\ge 0.996$, approximates window statistics with measurable ceilings, and fails at consecutivity ($ρ= 0.924$) and time localization (0.628), both structural, and at the exposure floor (0.829), a learnability boundary. One explicit admissible basis repairs each failure (rank correlation 1.000). In or near the separable family, learned and engineered aggregation are substitutes, and the learned channel is never statistically behind at full sample size and specified capacity. Its advantages are incumbent-specific: a committed grid pays up to 0.019 AUC in decay regions it leaves uncovered (the learned channel stays within 0.004 of the strongest engineered consumer at every swept point); the highest-dimensional comparator degrades fastest with scarce data; and beyond the training support, grid-fed tree-ensemble scores go flat while a strictly increasing head keeps ranking. No single incumbent is dominated on all three axes.

Abstract: We give an explicit solution to the five expert prediction with expert advice partial differential equation (PDE) in the finite-time horizon setting. The solution formula establishes that the adversary's rank strategy $(1,0,1,0,0)$ is globally optimal, and the COMB strategy $(1,0,1,0,1)$ is optimal exactly on the set where $x_1=x_2$ and $x_3=x_4$. The formula is derived from the solution of the geometric-stopping problem given in our companion paper through the transform principle of Bayraktar, Ekren and Zhang, which links the two problems by a Laplace transform. Inverting the transform term by term expresses the solution through a series of Gaussian and complementary error function kernels. The optimality of $(1,0,1,0,0)$ is reduced to the signs of $41$ one-variable Gaussian series, which are certified with computer assistance by Poisson summation, first-mode domination and interval arithmetic on $1616$ rational cells. The proofs of our main theorems, certificates included, are also formalized in the Lean proof assistant.

Abstract: Time-series foundation models are increasingly adapted to new domains through fine-tuning on target data, under the implicit assumption that more target data yields better forecasts. We show that this assumption can fail in financial forecasting, where individual price changes are difficult to predict, but large moves tend to cluster, creating alternating calm and turbulent periods. Using financial foundation models trained on price bars of open, high, low, close, and volume, we argue that adapting to financial domains requires training signals beyond next-token prediction. We introduce Volatility-Clustering Adaptation (VCA), which augments next-token cross-entropy with a differentiable penalty on the autocorrelation of squared returns, the standard statistical signature of volatility clustering. This additional objective provides a multi-step training signal by matching the resulting dependence structure of autoregressive rollouts to those of the realized future. Across three asset sets and two evaluation conventions, VCA improves adaptation over the pre-trained model, with the strongest gains under the primary evaluation (\textsc{fore}), driven primarily by reduced variance error. Overall, our results suggest that effective financial adaptation requires objectives that capture domain-specific temporal structure beyond token-level prediction.

Abstract: Large language models have achieved significant progress in event forecasting, yet their probability outputs exhibit systematic calibration bias that varies heterogeneously across different domains and question types, undermining the trustworthiness of probabilistic outputs for decision-making under uncertainty. However, existing calibration methods typically correct probability outputs after prediction is complete, without modeling the structural sources of bias within the prediction process itself. To address this challenge, we decompose probabilistic prediction over causal-temporal hypergraphs into three stages, evidence weighting, evidence aggregation, and source fusion, and propose CHAIN, which designs stage-specific mechanisms to mitigate bias at each stage: (i) modulating the temporal decay function by causal topological distance, (ii) aggregating approximately independent causal chains via Noisy-OR after direction-aware deduplication, and (iii) driving adaptive fusion by causal coverage and directional balance. Experimental results on cross-domain forecasting benchmarks show CHAIN outperforms existing methods in expected calibration error, Brier score, and accuracy. Our project is available at https://github.com/QwenQKing/Chain.

Abstract: Modern probabilistic machine learning models increasingly produce multivariate outputs with complex dependence structure, from multi-step time-series forecasts to sample path predictions. Understanding which input features drive the predictive uncertainty is important for risk-aware decisions, model diagnostics, and deciding whether the uncertainty should be mitigated or hedged against. This attribution problem requires a choice of how dependencies between output components are treated. Existing approaches reduce the output to a scalar through aggregation or projection before attribution, thereby obscuring whether features affect marginal uncertainty, dependence structure, or both, while component-wise analyses can miss dependence effects entirely. We close this gap by introducing a hierarchy of three entropy-based Shapley games that make this output-side choice explicit for any ordered multivariate outcome, ranging from per-component marginal entropy to fully joint entropy. The hierarchy isolates a cross-component attribution term that captures how each feature shifts the dependence between output components, a quantity invisible to component-wise methods. We establish a chain-rule decomposition of the joint attribution and characterize the cross-component term through conditional total correlation, providing both closed-form and sample-based estimators. Finally, we demonstrate how the framework captures differences in learned joint structure across probabilistic models from distributional regression to a zero-shot time series foundation model.

Abstract: Financial candlestick forecasting is fundamental to quantitative investment, yet it remains exceptionally challenging due to extremely low signal-to-noise ratios and vast heterogeneity across markets and instruments. Existing approaches have largely attempted to introduce deep learning to capture hidden temporal features, but most adopt an auto-regressive formulation, which leads to error accumulation during inference. Meanwhile, general-purpose time-series foundation models are not tailored to the unique structure of k-line data and yield unsatisfactory performance on downstream candlestick forecasting tasks. To tackle these problems, we introduce KiT, a K-line Diffusion Transformer foundation model, and reformulate future prediction as conditional path generation via flow matching: given a historical context window, the model generates an ensemble of plausible future OHLCV trajectories. We pre-train KiT at multiple parameter scales on billions of candlestick bars spanning multiple markets and timescales. Across three markets and seven resolutions, KiT attains a mean return RankIC of 0.057 and a mean volatility RankIC of 0.66, leading at every timescale and outperforming both task-specific financial forecasters and general time-series foundation models. Code will be available at: https://github.com/Luciferbobo/KiT.

Abstract: We study whether model upgrades improve probability estimates for prediction-market questions. Our Resolved Market Forecasting (RMF) benchmark contains 3,000 resolved binary questions across nine domains, on which we evaluate six Claude and Qwen model variants using a question-only, zero-shot protocol. We assess Brier scores relative to an empirical base-rate predictor, examine their Murphy decomposition, and compare models through paired differences, with results stratified by event category and timing relative to training cutoffs. In the reported post-cutoff stratum, the four Claude models achieve Brier scores of 0.183-0.192, improving on the base-rate reference by 0.024-0.033. Qwen 32B does not significantly outperform that reference, although its paired Brier is 0.024 lower than that of the 7B checkpoint. The evaluated Claude version and tier upgrades yield no significant improvement. Within-model differences across event categories exceed the observed differences among Claude variants. These results show why forecasting scores should be interpreted alongside simple probability baselines and question composition: under this protocol, newer versions or higher model tiers do not consistently produce more accurate probabilities.

Abstract: This paper studies multivariate conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification framework with finite-sample coverage guarantees. The efficiency of multivariate prediction sets hinges critically on the residual geometry encoded by the nonconformity score, while existing minimum-volume methods rely on quantile thresholds that ignore tail residual severity and implicitly bind geometry learning to coverage level. We propose a tail-aware geometry learning framework for conformal ellipsoids that decouples tail sensitivity in geometry learning from the final coverage guarantee. Using a two-split design, we learn the metric matrix via volume minimization under a CVaR constraint on an estimation split, then apply standard conformal calibration on a held-out calibration split. The resulting problem is convex and admits a bounded-reweighting interpretation that prioritizes high-residual samples. Moreover, we theoretically characterize the trade-off between ellipsoidal volume and tail severity. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Abstract: Many real-world decisions require prioritizing high-risk cases, such as clinicians prioritizing high-risk patients before lower-risk ones. Falling rule lists (FRLs), which are ordered if--then rules with monotonically decreasing risks, provide an interpretable framework for such tasks; however, their single-path structure yields a highly restricted model class. We introduce falling trees, a new family of interpretable models that enforces the same monotonic risk constraint while permitting tree-structured branching. We present GRAVITree, a novel dynamic-programming-with-bounds algorithm for learning the Rashomon set of falling trees under depth and branching constraints. Our formulation can interpolate between rule lists and full decision trees, enabling user-desired model expressivity. In a new clinical dataset and in many public classification benchmarks, falling trees match or outperform FRLs and other interpretable baselines, often producing more sparse decisions for high-risk instances. Our results show that falling trees strike a practical balance between interpretability, expressiveness, and risk prioritization for high-stakes settings.

Abstract: In hybrid forecasting, a language model is often one of several available signals. A system may already have a market, crowd, or statistical forecast and must decide whether the model adds useful information or should be ignored. The relevant target is therefore not standalone model accuracy, but relative competence, defined as the model's marginal value beyond the available external forecast. Under Brier loss, we characterize when model disagreement can improve an external forecast and derive the gain from using domain-specific rather than global pooling weights. We then introduce a competence gate that estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, the gate improves the main external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and significantly outperforms global forecast combinations. The gain remains significant under leakage controls and against a leakage-safe time-series prior on the pooled structured set, with separate evidence on FRED. In contrast, the gate gives no significant improvement on the official ForecastBench market subset, where it largely defers to the market. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence does not reliably identify when the model outperforms the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supports better abstention decisions. These results provide a practical approach for selective model use based on measured marginal value.

Abstract: High-dimensional dense text embeddings and large language models face real obstacles in financial-disclosure analysis: context-window limits, hallucination risk, high computational cost, and the arbitrary rotation of vector spaces across independently trained models. We present a training-free, alignment-free framework for corporate intelligence built on deterministic sparse seed vectors. Hashing word strings into a fixed high-dimensional basis places all documents and all temporal epochs in a common coordinate system by construction, removing any need for training or alignment. Accumulating these seed vectors across sentence contexts yields corpus-specific semantic signatures that compose linearly, supporting sub-second document comparison, issuer fingerprinting, tracking of how an issuer's vocabulary shifts between filings, and thematic sentence extraction, all on ordinary CPU hardware. Demonstrating the approach on a multi-year corpus of SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K), we show how material corporate events, among them Boeing's 737 MAX crisis, Intel's supply-chain disruptions, and Bunge's acquisition of Viterra, emerge as distinct, interpretable semantic profiles, each traceable to the exact source sentences that produced it, with no domain-specific training and no LLM inference.