risk management teams

Abstract: In hybrid forecasting, a language model is often one of several available signals. A system may already have a market, crowd, or statistical forecast and must decide whether the model adds useful information or should be ignored. The relevant target is therefore not standalone model accuracy, but relative competence, defined as the model's marginal value beyond the available external forecast. Under Brier loss, we characterize when model disagreement can improve an external forecast and derive the gain from using domain-specific rather than global pooling weights. We then introduce a competence gate that estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, the gate improves the main external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and significantly outperforms global forecast combinations. The gain remains significant under leakage controls and against a leakage-safe time-series prior on the pooled structured set, with separate evidence on FRED. In contrast, the gate gives no significant improvement on the official ForecastBench market subset, where it largely defers to the market. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence does not reliably identify when the model outperforms the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supports better abstention decisions. These results provide a practical approach for selective model use based on measured marginal value.

Abstract: High-dimensional dense text embeddings and large language models face real obstacles in financial-disclosure analysis: context-window limits, hallucination risk, high computational cost, and the arbitrary rotation of vector spaces across independently trained models. We present a training-free, alignment-free framework for corporate intelligence built on deterministic sparse seed vectors. Hashing word strings into a fixed high-dimensional basis places all documents and all temporal epochs in a common coordinate system by construction, removing any need for training or alignment. Accumulating these seed vectors across sentence contexts yields corpus-specific semantic signatures that compose linearly, supporting sub-second document comparison, issuer fingerprinting, tracking of how an issuer's vocabulary shifts between filings, and thematic sentence extraction, all on ordinary CPU hardware. Demonstrating the approach on a multi-year corpus of SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K), we show how material corporate events, among them Boeing's 737 MAX crisis, Intel's supply-chain disruptions, and Bunge's acquisition of Viterra, emerge as distinct, interpretable semantic profiles, each traceable to the exact source sentences that produced it, with no domain-specific training and no LLM inference.