ride-hailing service teams

Abstract: We develop a unified framework for assortment optimization and matching under multinomial logit (MNL) choice, yielding simple algorithms and analyses across a broad class of problems. The framework centers on a single-customer assortment problem in which the firm commits to eligible products before their independent availabilities are revealed. A simple threshold policy achieves a tight $1/2$ guarantee against a benchmark that selects its assortment after observing availability and may control dependence subject to the same marginal probability bounds. This guarantee accommodates cardinality constraints and adversarial removal of excess available products. Combined with problem-specific linear programming relaxations, the framework yields $1/2$ guarantees for standard two-sided assortment optimization, customization under mixtures of MNL models, ride-hailing notifications, multi-round broadcast matching, and MNL prophet inequalities, and a $1/4$ guarantee for fully static two-sided assortment optimization. Across these applications, we improve approximation factors, extend guarantees to more general revenues and cardinality constraints, and retain existing factors against stronger benchmarks.

Abstract: We release Ride-Hailing, a large-scale ride-hailing time series dataset synthesized from DiDi's marketplace data across 200 spatial areas. Ride-Hailing spans four consecutive years at half-hourly granularity and covers three representative exogenous scenarios: Weather Disturbance, Holiday Effect, and Large-scale Event Impact. Built upon Ride-Hailing, we introduce RideBench, a comprehensive benchmark for exogenous-aware ride-hailing forecasting, covering both regular week-ahead forecasting and long-horizon 8-week-ahead forecasting with up to 2,688 prediction steps. RideBench evaluates over 30 representative forecasting methods, including endogenous-only models, exogenous-aware models, and time series foundation models. Our results show that future-known exogenous variables provide clear benefits in regular week-ahead forecasting, especially under weather, holiday, and large-scale event (e.g., major sporting events and concerts) scenarios. However, current exogenous-aware models still struggle to fully capture disturbance-induced pattern changes under complex external contexts. For long-horizon forecasting, existing models cannot simultaneously achieve low pointwise errors, accurate broad trends, and reliable near-term forecasts. These findings reveal a clear mismatch between existing forecasting models and real-world ride-hailing requirements, highlighting the need for models that can better exploit future-known exogenous information, scale across heterogeneous areas, and support long-horizon planning. By introducing Ride-Hailing and RideBench, we aim to encourage the community to study these practical challenges in real-world ride-hailing forecasting.