real-time analytics teams

Abstract: We consider online learning in non-stationary environments, where the goal is to track an unknown parameter that switches abruptly between a finite set of recurring values. Recurrence opens the possibility of judiciously reusing past observations to improve algorithm performance. However, the changing nature of the underlying signal and lack of information on these dynamics may limit the ability to "safely" reuse data. In this paper we quantify some of the fundamental tradeoffs in this class of problems, and show that they bear a certain resemblance to the classical bias-variance dilemma. Specifically, we propose a class of anytime algorithms, dubbed Exposure-Capped Reuse (ECR), that combine online change detection, compatibility testing, and "contamination" control. We characterize the regime in which ECR's regret scales with the number of distinct values rather than the number of changes, and derive a novel information-theoretic lower bound that establishes the near-minimax optimality of ECR. This provides rigorous quantification of the statistical "value" of data reuse.

Abstract: Tabular foundation models (TFMs) outperform established machine learning models on tabular benchmarks through in-context learning. Building on this success, interest is growing in applying them to data streams, where data arrive continuously and evolve over time. On a stream, a TFM adapts by updating its context rather than its parameters, so its accuracy and cost depend on which examples it keeps and how often it rebuilds its context. We therefore present a systematic study of TFMs on data streams, covering memory management, computational cost, and stream-specific challenges such as concept drift and delayed labels. We find that TFMs achieve the highest predictive performance and that simply retaining the most recent examples is as effective as existing memory management techniques. They also recover faster than streaming learners after drift and keep the highest accuracy under label delay. This accuracy, however, comes at a high serving cost, since a nearly unchanged context is re-encoded at every prediction. These results point to architectural efficiency as the way forward for in-context stream learning.

Abstract: The same task and compute budget can require different reasoning policies when evidence arrives in a different order. Early computation has more time to finish but rests on incomplete or revisable evidence; waiting improves information while shrinking computational slack. We call this the information-slack dilemma. We take the evidence-dependent computational job as the unit of analysis: when to start it, what supports its result, and when that result can be committed. Advance computation is valuable only insofar as its benefits survive the costs of verification, invalidation, and recovery. This applies to grounded incremental processing and reusable preparation as well as future-dependent speculation. We propose a research agenda on computation under evolving evidence, prioritizing selective recovery under controlled evidence revisions. Evaluation should separate earlier-execution effects, deployment value against a full-input alternative, and the added value of predictive policies, while accounting for shared-resource costs. The objective is not maximal advance computation, but more trustworthy, on-time responses within a declared resource envelope.