Papers for
public transit planners
Papers whose findings have a practical use for this group, as judged from the abstract. Open a paper to read what it means in practice.
Autoencoder signals do not outperform classic methods detecting bus delays and anomalies
Detecting bus delays and service anomalies in Niterói with autoencoder latent feature representations
Abstract: Bus riders judge service by two failures: single trips that run late, and days on which the whole system misbehaves. We ask whether one unsupervised representation of raw GPS telemetry can serve both diagnoses on the NetMob 2026 Niterói bus dataset. An autoencoder compresses each trip into a 64-dimensional latent vector; the frozen encoder feeds supervised delay classifiers, and the reconstruction error serves as an anomaly score. Two findings are negative. First, the latent representation does not improve delay detection: gradient boosting on per-trip summary features reaches $0.846 \pm 0.013$ ROC-AUC against $0.838 \pm 0.016$ for the best latent setup, and the gap becomes significant once the preprocessing filters are relaxed. Second, two of the three external checks of the anomaly score were circular. Retraining without rainfall removes the rain association ($5.4\%$ against $5.0\%$ flagged, $p = 0.84$) and an apparent citywide disruption on 23 March. What survives is a day-level signal stable across three autoencoders (Spearman $ρ\geq 0.96$), driven mostly by day type, with degraded-telemetry days still separable within weekday and weekend strata. The alarm threshold limits detection more than the score does: a pooled percentile cut flags $5.7\%$ of trips on the worst degraded day, while re-scaling within each bus line flags $29.3\%$. The delay model rests almost entirely on one feature, no latent dimension is individually interpretable, and 22 chronic line-directions carry half of all delayed trips.
RideBench benchmark reveals challenges in ride-hailing demand forecasting
RideBench: A Large-Scale Exogenous-Aware Benchmark for Ride-Hailing Time Series Forecasting
Abstract: We release Ride-Hailing, a large-scale ride-hailing time series dataset synthesized from DiDi's marketplace data across 200 spatial areas. Ride-Hailing spans four consecutive years at half-hourly granularity and covers three representative exogenous scenarios: Weather Disturbance, Holiday Effect, and Large-scale Event Impact. Built upon Ride-Hailing, we introduce RideBench, a comprehensive benchmark for exogenous-aware ride-hailing forecasting, covering both regular week-ahead forecasting and long-horizon 8-week-ahead forecasting with up to 2,688 prediction steps. RideBench evaluates over 30 representative forecasting methods, including endogenous-only models, exogenous-aware models, and time series foundation models. Our results show that future-known exogenous variables provide clear benefits in regular week-ahead forecasting, especially under weather, holiday, and large-scale event (e.g., major sporting events and concerts) scenarios. However, current exogenous-aware models still struggle to fully capture disturbance-induced pattern changes under complex external contexts. For long-horizon forecasting, existing models cannot simultaneously achieve low pointwise errors, accurate broad trends, and reliable near-term forecasts. These findings reveal a clear mismatch between existing forecasting models and real-world ride-hailing requirements, highlighting the need for models that can better exploit future-known exogenous information, scale across heterogeneous areas, and support long-horizon planning. By introducing Ride-Hailing and RideBench, we aim to encourage the community to study these practical challenges in real-world ride-hailing forecasting.