public transit operators

Abstract: Border crossing points are stochastic service systems in which traffic demand, traveler categories, registration status, inspection requirements, staffing, and lane availability interact on multiple time scales. This paper extends an earlier multimodal queue-management framework by introducing an implementation-oriented, multi-horizon forecasting and decision-support architecture based on Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) models. In contrast to a single forecasting block, the proposed approach constructs horizon-specific regressors for 15, 30, 60, and 120 min forecasts and jointly estimates future waiting time and queue lengths. The models operate on temporally lagged traffic, service, density, and queue features, while an operational layer incorporates lane compatibility, officer availability, possibly degraded resources, traveler category, preregistration information, and human-approval constraints. Quantile LightGBM models provide 95\% prediction intervals for waiting-time forecasts. Beyond prediction, the framework produces machine-readable recommendations, alerts, aggregate key performance indicators, confidence information, and integration outputs suitable for border resource-management and decision-support systems. The results establish a reproducible synthetic-data baseline and a practical interface for subsequent validation with operational border-crossing data.

Abstract: We introduce MetroLLM-Bench, a 955-case benchmark for testing language models as the policy layer of a transit kiosk. It covers six real metro systems, ranging from 37 to 414 stations, and eleven categories that include routing, fare calculation, disruptions, accessibility, and adversarial input. In each case, the model must call structured tools and submit a machine-renderable terminal state containing an outcome, a per-ticket fare quote when applicable, and a kiosk action. Fourteen deterministic scoring components form Tier 1; eight semantic-quality components form Tier 2, six of which use a language-model judge. We report Tier 1 and the combined score of both tiers. A stratified 75/25 split reserves 717 cases for training-data generation and 238 for held-out evaluation. We evaluate twenty-six models from six vendors, of which twenty-three are ranked. On the held-out partition, a 4B Qwen 3.5 student trained through parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) exceeds both GPT-5.6 tiers on Tier 1 (91.3 against 90.6 and 90.0) and matches GPT-5.4 full at maximum reasoning effort (91.4), with a 2.6 GB Q4_K_M footprint. Larger 9B and 27B students provide no further Tier 1 improvement over the 4B student at this training scale. Across the four Qwen sizes, the PEFT gain over the corresponding base model decreases from +7.03 points at 2B (three training seeds) to -0.91 at 27B; every seed shows the same direction at every size. A deterministic rule-based baseline reaches 84.6 on Tier 1, with the remaining language-model advantage concentrated in policy adaptation, compound scenarios, accessibility, and temporal reasoning. Muse Glimmer 30B leads the composite ranking, and serving configuration alone moves the Qwen 3.5-to-3.8 comparison by 2.7 Tier 1 points. The benchmark, harness, reproduction guide, and fine-tuned students are released at https://github.com/continker/metrollm-bench.

Abstract: Real-time urban governance depends not only on knowing where people are, but on how they move between places, directional flows that could be conventionally resolved by tracking individuals through space, i.e., expensive to sustain and built on traces that are highly unique and readily re-identifiable. Here we show that this directional structure need not be observed to be known: aggregated counts which cities already collect retain enough information to reconstruct the temporal evolution of origin-destination (OD) matrix. Using an uncertainty-aware physics-informed framework, we infer future OD flows from area-level counts alone across twelve mobility datasets from cities in the United States and China, reaching accuracy comparable to models that take historical OD matrices as input. Probabilistic modeling corrects the systematic underestimation of sparse, high-value corridors and yields calibrated predictions consistent with observed flows. Architectures that respect the generation-before-assignment logic of transport planning recover interactions more faithfully, indicating that location-level spatial heterogeneity should be preserved before pairwise interactions are reconstructed. Because inference requires only aggregated observations after training, recovering interactions this way reduces reliance on continuous individual-level tracking, pointing toward a more deployable and less exposure-heavy basis for real-time urban intelligence.