power grid operators

Abstract: The advent of large, high-density FPGAs such as the AMD Versal enables efficient hardware implementation of neuromorphic Ising machines, unlocking unprecedented performance for complex combinatorial optimizations. A critical application for this computing paradigm is dynamic powergrid optimization, specifically Distribution Network Reconfiguration (DNR), which seeks to mitigate severe resistive losses and reduce electricity costs by optimizing network switch configurations in real time. This paper presents an FPGA-based neuromorphic higher-order Ising machine for high-speed, adaptive DNR. By directly mapping DNR onto higher-order Ising interactions via a polynomial unconstrained binary optimization (PUBO) formulation, the proposed architecture requires only 179 spins for the IEEE 33-bus network, which represents a 6 times reduction compared to standard quadratic formulations. Implemented on an AMD Versal Premium VP1802 FPGA, the architecture executes parallel spin-group updates every 20 ns and solves 33-, 51-, and 69-bus benchmark networks with median latencies of 1.6-29.3 ms, yielding a 7-58 times speedup over Gurobi to the first optimal solution. Using the solver with expanded network-switching flexibility reduces power loss by 80.71 kW (57.83%), while adaptive reconfiguration every 10 s under time-varying demand saves 131.16 kWh/day over static daily reconfiguration, highlighting the potential of higher-order Ising hardware for fast, adaptive smart grid management.

Abstract: Aggregation platforms and smart-inverter control channels can allow a compromised coordination layer to alter active- and reactive-power commands across a geographically distributed DER fleet. This paper introduces the Coordinated Optimization-Based Attack (COBA), which uses network information and location-specific DER P/Q setpoints to maximize thermal loading on a selected transmission corridor. COBA is compared with low-information CAV baselines limited to a single uniform fleet command: all-off, all-on, maximum reactive absorption, or maximum reactive injection. The Hawaii Synthetic Grid-37 Buses case is evaluated with rooftop-photovoltaic-like capability aggregated at 20 selected 69-kV buses and verified using MATPOWER power flow. Under the case's single-reference-bus balancing convention, COBA overloads B86 (WAIALUA69-WAIANAE69) near 30% penetration and B51 (COCONUT69-PALM69) near 55%, while same-target uniform loadings remain lower and uniform commands primarily stress other natural weak lines. The results show that topology, target selection, and command capability determine DER-induced thermal risk beyond aggregate penetration alone.

Abstract: We study worst-case finite-time energy dissipation in quadratic systems with proved global asymptotic stability (GAS). Estimating the maximum retained energy fraction to any fixed positive additive error below $1/2$ is NP-hard, even when the input includes a strict quartic Lyapunov function and proof of strictness, both constructed in polynomial time. NP denotes nondeterministic polynomial time. For a partially damped family, the unit-sphere minimum norm of the coupling map equals the structured coefficient distance to loss of GAS. Positive distances at most $1/2$ give two-sided inverse-square halving-time bounds with explicit coefficient factors. Polynomial-factor approximation of the least dissipated fraction, halving time or coefficient distance is NP-hard. Additive hardness persists throughout an explicit coefficient neighborhood and under direct damping with exponential stability, a strict quadratic Lyapunov function and a Hurwitz Jacobian. Unless $\mathrm{P}=\mathrm{NP}$, where P denotes deterministic polynomial time, no polynomial-time algorithm attains these guarantees on all inputs.

Abstract: Low-fidelity (LF) optimization models are widely used in large-scale operations because they can be solved efficiently and reliably, but they often exhibit systematic errors relative to high-fidelity (HF) formulations that better capture physical and operational constraints. Existing learning-based approaches typically rely on supervised or semi-supervised training with HF solutions, which are expensive to compute and may not align with HF operational objectives. We propose a self-supervised framework that parameterizes LF optimization models directly from HF feedback. The low-fidelity problem is embedded as a differentiable optimization layer and trained end-to-end, while a HF correction problem evaluates its solution and provides gradient information through its dual variables, without requiring HF solution labels. We evaluate the framework on optimal power flow, optimal gas flow, and pooling problems, spanning different sources of low- and high-fidelity mismatch. Across all three applications, the self-supervised approach improves objective quality and feasibility over untuned LF models and generally outperforms semi-supervised training. The learned parameterizations also generalize to unseen operating conditions and, for network applications with up to 30,000 nodes, to systems not encountered during training.

Abstract: Machine learning-based fault detectors are often evaluated at the relay locations used for training, although local voltage and current measurements vary across power networks. This work investigates cross-relay generalization for binary detection of faults anywhere in the network using local measurements, rather than line-selective tripping. Using 50 ms windows from a simulated 110 kV transmission network, we evaluate a multilayer perceptron across all 64 source target combinations of eight relays and five random seeds. A shared simulation-level split and source-only threshold selection provide a controlled held-out evaluation without target-specific calibration. Despite nearly unchanged mean F1-scores (0.730 within-relay versus 0.734 cross-relay), the mean false-positive rate (FPR) increases from 0.088 to 0.341, while the mean false-negative rate decreases from 0.399 to 0.318. The change is strongly directional: models trained at Bus 2 relays yield a mean FPR of 0.670 at Bus 1 and Bus 3 relays, compared with 0.096 for cross-relay transfers within the same bus group. Linear probing indicates that learned representations retain coarse bus-group information, while exploratory class-conditional latent distribution analysis shows no consistent monotonic association with transfer errors. These findings demonstrate that aggregate metrics can conceal location-structured changes in false-alarm behavior, highlighting the importance of evaluating error types separately when assessing cross-relay generalization.

Abstract: Accurate multi-horizon photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for grid stability, energy scheduling, and the efficient operation of PVbatterygrid systems. However, existing models often fail to jointly capture short-term variability and long-term temporal patterns, while lacking unified multi-horizon capability and interpretability. To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and N-BEATS within an attention-based fusion architecture. The proposed model leverages TFT to learn short-term temporal dependencies and dynamic feature importance, while N-BEATS captures long-term trend and seasonal components through interpretable basis decomposition. An adaptive attention mechanism dynamically fuses both branches, enabling balanced multi-scale learning. The framework simultaneously generates forecasts for 30-minute, 2-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, and 24-hour horizons within a single unified pipeline. The model is evaluated using multi-year real-world datasets from the Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Centre (DKASC). Experimental results demonstrate superior performance over statistical, machine learning, and deep learning baselines. The proposed model achieves RMSE values of 42.35, 46.27, 52.29, and 48.11 across the 20162017, 2023, 2024, and 20252026 datasets, respectively, corresponding to a 3540% reduction compared to the best baseline (TFT). Additionally, MAPE remains below 5% across all datasets, indicating high predictive accuracy and stability. The model also provides interpretability through attention visualization and trendseasonality decomposition, and is deployed on a cloud-based platform for real-time forecasting. These results demonstrate that the proposed framework is robust, interpretable, and suitable for practical renewable energy applications.

Abstract: The continuous evolution of next-generation power systems, characterized by the high penetration of renewable energy resources and dynamic topology variations, poses formidable challenges to traditional N-1/N-2 contingency analysis in terms of computational efficiency and scalability. While deep learning-based methods offer accelerated inference, existing studies predominantly treat contingency analysis as a pure regression problem, often overlooking the physical essence of grid operation and engineering requirements of real-world scenarios. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes a physics and prompt-guided graph foundation model (PhyPro-FM) for generalizable and engineering-viable contingency analysis. The proposed architecture integrates graph neural networks with a learnable global query mechanism and, notably, introduces a prompt-guided learning paradigm. By leveraging historical snapshots as few-shot prompts, the model dynamically captures correlations between target and historical operating conditions, significantly enhancing generalization capabilities under unseen topologies. Furthermore, we design a physics-informed training mechanism that prioritizes branch power flow errors over nodal voltage errors, aligning the optimization objective with critical grid security constraints. To ensure engineering applicability, a physics-informed inference mechanism is also developed, incorporating a residual-based correction module and a specialized post-processing strategy for singular branches to circumvent numerical instability. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that PhyPro-FM outperforms state-of-the-art methods in accuracy and generalization, validating its superior physical consistency and robustness for practical engineering applications.

Abstract: The Transversal Hypergraph problem asks to enumerate (list) all inclusion-minimal hitting sets of a hypergraph. It usually assumes that the input is completely known and does not change over the course of the enumeration. In many applications, the underlying hypergraph is too large or expensive to compute. This motivated the implicit hitting set framework [Chandrasekaran, Karp, Moreno-Centeno, and Vempala, SODA 2011] for the corresponding optimization problem of finding a smallest hitting set. Access to the input is given by an oracle that either confirms that a query set $S$ is a hitting set, or reveals a new hyperedge disjoint from $S$. We adapt this framework to enumeration. We show for a general class of algorithms that they are able to find all hitting sets when given access to such an oracle, even if the hypergraph is a priori unknown. We also prove that the current fastest Transversal Hypergraph algorithm, Minimal-to-Maximal Conversion Search by Murakami and Uno [DAM 2014], belongs to this class. We then engineer an implicit hitting set algorithm for the enumeration of minimal power dominating sets in graphs. A power dominating set is a selection of vertices that "observe" all vertices by exhaustively applying two rules: if a vertex is dominated by the selection, it becomes observed; and if an observed vertex has a unique unobserved neighbor, this neighbor becomes observed as well. An experimental evaluation on a collection of power grid instances from the literature shows that our approach achieves very high throughput rates.

Abstract: In time-series forecasting tasks, the use of recursive forecasting on high-dimensional data substantially increases the complexity of the prediction process. The main challenge is that long-term dynamics becomes harder to model, since the sequences show greater temporal variability. To counteract this limitation and improve the modeling of long-term dynamics, and more importantly, address high-dimensional recursive forecasting, this paper uses a Wasserstein GAN equipped with a progressive Lipschitz penalty and an adaptive kernel. This model is capable of taking a window of the data stream and forecasting the next values, subsequently reconstructing the time-series stream and dynamically adapting its kernel to each new window. The proopsed model is a deep learning framework based on a Wasserstein GAN (WGAN-CLP) with an adaptive kernel to model alterations in streaming voltage time series. To establish the methodological foundation, we review the WGAN-LP formulation another variant model in this class and extend its framework through an adaptive kernel critic model. We then evaluate this extended model using power ratios, correlation coefficient (CC), and relative root mean squared error (RRMSE). The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms benchmark methods in both accuracy and robustness. The evaluation shows promising performance of the WGAN-CLP with an adaptive kernel framework in forecasting sequence alterations across the voltage and energy time-series datasets.

Abstract: Restoring service after distribution-grid faults requires decisions from incomplete and conflicting information while respecting electrical constraints. Addressing this need, we introduce FLARE (Feeder-Level Agent Restoration Evaluation), a physics-grounded benchmark for post-isolation feeder restoration. FLARE con- tains 800 AC-feasible cases across five observation settings and allows agents to gather evidence, evaluate switches, and perform restoration actions under fixed operational limits. We evaluate five instruction-tuned models over 78,750 episodes, including topology, distributed-generation, and loading shifts. Mean normalized regret ranges from 0.082 to 0.148. Although every model has zero median regret, P95 regret ranges from 0.814 to 1.000, revealing an important failure tail. Shadow replay shows that 96.4% of 15,706 guard-rejected actions would have caused a physical violation. FLARE enables reproducible evaluation of language-model based restoration support while emphasizing the need for external safety checks.

Abstract: Time series foundation models are becoming increasingly popular for general-purpose forecasting. However, most leading models predict marginal quantiles, leaving the dependence structure of future trajectories unspecified. This distinction matters for trajectory-dependent quantities such as cumulative demand, peak load, and event timing, yet point and marginal scores do not reveal it. To model this dependence, we introduce PathFM, a trajectory-based forecasting model that uses flow matching to generate complete future paths. We further distill the model to one or two steps and share history attention cache across draws. Together, these enable PathFM to generate multiple paths for a single series in roughly the time needed for one query to a quantile model. The distilled sampler also makes it practical to optimize a calibration loss directly. PathFM achieves competitive marginal accuracy on the established forecasting benchmarks fev-bench and TIME. To complement these evaluations, we introduce Forecast Path Score Bench (fps-bench), which augments fev-bench tasks with energy and variogram scores and downstream metrics. PathFM achieves a higher aggregate path score on fps-bench than all evaluated external baselines. Experiments on chaotic systems further show that our flow model sustains long-run variability, while strong baselines rapidly collapse. PathFM makes generative time series forecasting both competitive and practical, enabling diverse downstream applications.

Abstract: Grid foundation models (GridFMs) are graph transformers pretrained on a masked power-flow objective, and evaluate power flow orders of magnitude faster than an iterative solver. Their size, however, targets data-centre inference, whereas low-inertia operation increasingly asks for inference at the edge, next to the measurement, at batch size one and within a single synchrophasor (PMU) reporting frame. We distil a 20.1M-parameter, 12-layer GridFM teacher into a 0.62M-parameter, 6-layer student, a $32.5\times$ parameter reduction at half the message-passing depth, using an objective that combines the masked power-flow loss with output, physics-residual, latent-state and attention transfer. The physics-residual term, which matches the teacher's power-residual profile, has not previously been applied to typed power-grid graphs. We evaluate on a renewable variant of the IEEE 118-bus benchmark grid in which 26 of the conventional (synchronous) generators are replaced by inverter-based renewables with battery flexibility and standardised reactive-power limits (IEEE 1547), giving $97\,529$ physically valid (AC-OPF-feasible) operating scenarios, and we ablate all eight combinations of the transfer terms, reporting accuracy against ground truth and fidelity to the teacher separately. Distillation lowers student error on all four predicted quantities, by up to $48\%$ on active-power dispatch, and every distilled student is more accurate than its teacher on reactive-power dispatch. The gain is largely carried by the output matching term. The physics-residual term, in the layer-aggregated form used here, is consistently harmful, which we attribute to the spatial averaging it applies to a bus-level residual field. The resulting student is $32.5\times$ smaller in parameter count and has half the message-passing depth, making it a candidate for subsequent edge-device benchmarking.

Abstract: We propose a nonparametric approach that fuses deterministic initial forecasts and a partial realization into a probabilistic forecast using the framework of functional curve completion. Our motivation is to construct intra-day forecasts for renewable energy generation, which is a key operational task in modern power grids. The aim is to combine the day-ahead (DA) forecast and the morning realized generation profile to create trajectories for the rest of the day, quantifying operational uncertainty. Starting with a large database of complete forecast-actual pairs across many assets, we adopt a functional point of view and construct a weighted neighborhood based on similarity metrics for the observed partial curve, the DA forecast, the day, and the geographical location. The selected complete nearest-neighbor curves provide a full predictive distribution, including functional focal envelopes and predictive bands based on functional depth. The hyperparameters governing neighborhood size, distances, and fusion rates are tuned across forecast update times and directly target probabilistic calibration in terms of the predictive probability integral transform. Three case studies using synthetic wind and solar assets, as well as real-life regional wind generation, showcase that our algorithm is able to achieve excellent calibration.

Abstract: Distribution-system state estimation is a growing necessity for the modern power grid as the addition of local storage and generation add system complexity that an operator or aggregator is not able to directly monitor. Classical methods work well when all system elements are time-synchronized and at least partly observable, but multi-rate monitoring of sparse heterogeneous sensors typically relies on machine learning approaches. It is a common practice in the literature to structure this task as a two-stage pipeline, first fusing data from disparate sensors and then feeding the fused pseudo-measurements to a separately trained state estimator. We propose a heterogeneous latent graph ODE in which measurement functions and sampling processes are typed and localized on specific buses, paired with a graph- transformer state estimator solving DSSE specifically for multi-rate heterogeneous sensor placements, and demonstrate its effectiveness across multiple IEEE standard topologies as observability degrades.

Abstract: Power grid cyber-physical security requires intrusion detection methods that account for the operational consequences of detection errors. However, the existing intrusion detection approaches primarily focus on the predictive performance of learning algorithms, while downstream operational costs are often optimized independently, which can lead to inferior operational performance. To help alleviate this problem, we propose a novel optimization-learning cyber-physical-risk-informed framework that communicates iteratively to minimize power grid operational costs. This framework translates machine learning prediction errors into power grid operational cyber-physical-risk costs. Experimental results on two power grid operation datasets, Industrial Control System (ICS) Cyber Attack and Sherlock, show that the proposed approach improves power grid operation costs compared with the traditional approach.

Abstract: Uncertainty quantification for electric vehicle (EV) charging demand is essential to turn the increasing pressure of EV adoption on power systems into a source of flexibility. We study a large-scale dataset of public charging stations in Scotland, where demand exhibits a hierarchical structure, organized across multiple aggregation levels, from individual charging points to regional and national scales. The charging infrastructure is continuously evolving, with new stations deployed and existing ones occasionally removed, which calls for forecasting and uncertainty quantification methods tailored to this evolving structure. To address these challenges, we combine hierarchical forecasting with recent advances in conformal prediction with missing data. The conformal procedures considered produce valid prediction intervals at every node of the hierarchy and the algorithm CP-MNR-Nested successfully accounts for the time-varying hierarchical structure of the data.

Abstract: Data-driven surrogates reduce the nonlinear solves required for probabilistic power flow (PPF), but models tied to a fixed bus--branch graph often generalize poorly when outages change electrical coupling. This paper proposes a topology-decomposition-driven hierarchical bidirectional graph neural network (TDD--HBGNN) for PPF under unseen topologies. For each realized topology, the network is decomposed into fundamental topological units (FTUs), dynamically homogeneous voltage clusters (DHVCs), and a core backbone sub-grid (CBSG), with equivalent-admittance representations preserving electrical ports between units. A sensitivity-based linear prior captures the first-order voltage-magnitude and phase-angle response, while the HBGNN learns topology-dependent nonlinear residuals. Impedance- and uncertainty-aware bottom-up aggregation condenses local perturbations, while mode-modulated top-down broadcasting restores system context at buses. We evaluate our approach on the IEEE 118-bus and Polish 2746-bus systems under unseen N--1 and N--2 contingencies against six baseline methods. Compared with these methods, TDD--HBGNN achieves 2.47--4.20-fold lower all-bus phase-angle errors and lower phase-angle errors in every held-out event. Its voltage-magnitude advantage is concentrated near the outaged branches, where paired error ratios reach 1.75--2.58 on the IEEE system and 1.87--1.97 in Polish N--2 events. All system--contingency--baseline comparisons favor TDD--HBGNN in joint voltage--angle error. Moreover, shared hierarchical operators keep the model size at 0.658 million parameters across both grids and yield 0.161--1.793~ms forward latency per probabilistic case. These results demonstrate system-wide angular accuracy, outage-local voltage accuracy, and parameter-efficient scaling across unseen topologies.

Abstract: The repeated assembly of the sparse Jacobian matrix constitutes a primary computational bottleneck in the Newton-Raphson power-flow analysis. Through an algebraic equivariance analysis of the Jacobian matrix, this paper proposes a direct sparse Jacobian assembly method based on symbolic permutation. By pre-applying the permutation to the admittance matrix during a one-time symbolic phase, the runtime bus-type projection overhead is entirely eliminated. Consequently, complex Jacobian differentiation and global matrix assembly fuse into a single operation, yielding a single-pass, branchless algorithm that streams values directly into contiguous memory. The framework is realized in the open-source RustPower solver. Benchmarks on IEEE test systems and PEGASE 9241 demonstrate that the proposed assembly is 24.4-30.1x faster than the MATPOWER- style baseline and 6.0-7.8x faster than the Schafer-Braun optimized assembly. End-to-end, the grid-level solve time is 11.7x-154.3x faster than pandapower 3.5.4 with Numba, while leaving numerical results and convergence behavior unchanged. Compared with the native C++ LightSim2Grid 1.0.0, grid-level performance is comparable on IEEE 39 and 1.3x-1.8x faster on IEEE 118 and the PEGASE systems. The method extends directly to general problems where a sparse Jacobian inherits its structure from a static network operator, including transient stability analysis, EMT simulation, and OPF Hessian assembly.

Abstract: Consider a finite population of agents with decoupled Markov transition dynamics and empirical-density feedback, subject to the following constraints: with probability at least $1-δ_r$, at least a fraction $α_r$ of agents must reach a target region at some time $t^*$, while, at each time up to $t^*$, the unsafe population fraction must remain below $β_u$ with probability at least $1-δ_u$. However, standard mean-field methods enforce these constraints only in expectation, which fails to account for stochastic fluctuations at finite fleet size $N$. To address this control problem, we propagate the second-order moment (variance) of the empirical density alongside the mean-field trajectory via a discrete-time Lyapunov recursion, and apply the Cantelli inequality to convert chance constraints into tractable deterministic conditions on the moments of the empirical density. We then incorporate these moment-based surrogate constraints into a gradient-based sequential convex approximation procedure for density-feedback policy synthesis. We further introduce additional moment-error bounds to construct a rigorous finite-$N$ certificate. The method is evaluated on a gridworld environment and a power-system EV-charging aggregation problem and compared with a standard deterministic population-level LP baseline.

Abstract: Public redispatch records provide empirical data for grid congestion forecasting, but delayed reporting, zero-inflated distributions, and temporal shift present major modeling challenges. We assess the accuracy and reliability of probabilistic machine-learning forecasts using published German transmission records under experimentally imposed information-age constraints. The benchmark evaluates eight daily series of upward and downward intervention energy across four German transmission system operators from 2021 to 2024 (48,242 eligible records; 354 evaluation dates in 2024). We compare seasonal empirical, regularized autoregressive (ARX), quantile LightGBM, GRU, and Transformer models under a minimum seven-day target-latency constraint. Neural architectures use a zero-censored output head to accommodate exact-zero outcomes. Static, rolling, and adaptive delayed-feedback calibration are evaluated using normalized weighted interval score (nWIS), empirical coverage, and block-bootstrap inference. Raw LightGBM achieved nWIS 0.7952, outperforming ARX (1.0604) and the seasonal baseline (0.8739) by 25.0% and 9.0%, respectively (Holm-adjusted p<0.005). Rolling calibration improved LightGBM to nWIS 0.7767 versus 0.8251 for static calibration (p=0.0092), with 91.81% coverage for nominal 90% intervals. The zero-censored Transformer achieved nWIS 0.8161, with no significant difference from LightGBM (p=0.260). However, aggregate coverage concealed substantial undercoverage during high-volume interventions (61.91% coverage among above-threshold events). These results show that boosted-tree models with rolling calibration provide accurate probabilistic forecasts of aggregate redispatch volumes under target delays, while nominal aggregate validity does not ensure reliability during extreme congestion events.

Abstract: Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and efficient operation of modern power systems. While time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable performance across a wide range of forecasting tasks, their effectiveness for STLF under realistic operational conditions remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we present a comprehensive benchmark of four trained-from-scratch (TFS) models and four TSFMs across three real-world load forecasting datasets under operational scenarios that differ in the availability and quality of future covariate information. Our results show that Chronos-2 consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance in both zero-shot and fine-tuned settings when future covariates are available or accurately forecast. However, its performance degrades as covariate forecasts become increasingly noisy, whereas TimesNet exhibits greater robustness under severe covariate uncertainty. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of covariate-informed TSFMs for STLF while highlighting the critical role of robust covariate modeling in real-world forecasting applications.

Abstract: Power-grid digital twins must combine data-driven prediction with physically meaningful state evolution while preserving the provenance of environmental observations. This paper presents an early-stage EnergyEminence testbed that couples an IEEE 118-bus-style graph-temporal predictor, nonlinear AC cascade simulation, and operator-dashboard-like temporal replay. In addition, we introduce a shared bounded calibration that converts wildfire-detection confidence and spatial extent into source-comparable wildfire interpretable and explainable evidence. We then evaluate it with visually diverse fire and hard-negative videos. Sixteen synthetic environmental videos are curated to generate 160 source-tracked grid scenarios, and a source-video-disjoint test yields 10 true positives, 8 false positives, 22 true negatives, and no false negatives. The errors occur in stressed, non-cascading scenarios conditioned on an unseen growing-fire source. Our diagnostic then reveals environmental shortcut learning that is obscured by scenario-level random splitting. The paper therefore contributes a data-centric and inspectable evaluation workflow for multimodal grid-resilience models, together with evidence supporting separation of environmental alerting from electrical cascade inference

Abstract: We introduce GridSFM, a framework that combines a pretrained foundation model across grid topologies with physics-informed fine-tuning for solving AC Optimal Power Flow (AC-OPF) at scale. It is a $15$ million parameter physics-inspired graph neural network pretrained across $54$ topologies of $500$ to $4{,}000$ buses. Our model attains a $2.45\%$ zero-shot generation-cost error on a $10{,}000$ bus case held-out operating conditions with no degradation as system size grows. Building on this, we pair the pretrained backbone with a physics-informed fine-tuning design based on Newton's method for power flow. With only $100$ solved instances, GridSFM adapts to unseen grids up to $10{,}000$ buses. We show it out performs single topology, dedicated neural network models that are trained more data, both in terms of cost and solver iterations when deployed as warm starting points. In designing this foundation model, we overcome the fact that the feasible set for AC-OPF can be disconnected. This is an obstruction that prevents any continuous neural network from approximating the solution map. To do so, we lift the problem and relax its constraints with logarithmically penalized slacks. We prove that the resulting elastic feasible set is contractible, that the AC-OPF minimizers remain minimizers of the elastic problem above an explicit penalty threshold, and that projecting an approximate solution back onto the AC-OPF feasible set is well posed. We release all models, data, and code so that the community can build on a shared starting point for AC-OPF.

Abstract: Graph neural networks (GNNs) have become a prominent approach for developing fast, topology-aware surrogates in electric power systems, supporting tasks such as power flow (PF) analysis, optimal power flow (OPF) estimation, and cascading failure analysis (CFA). Despite this growing use, formally verifying GNN-based models remains challenging, with existing methods limited in scope. We extend the neural network verification (NNV) framework to graph-structured inputs through GraphStar sets, a generalization of Star sets that captures uncertainty over both node and edge features. This extension enables the propagation of linear message-passing operations and the sound approximation of ReLU nonlinearities for GNN architectures, including graph convolutional network (GCN) and graph isomorphism network with edge features (GINE) layers. We evaluate GNNV across three power system tasks, PF, OPF, and CFA, on the IEEE-24, IEEE-39, and IEEE-118 test cases, as well as two standard graph classification benchmarks, ENZYMES and PROTEINS. Our results show that GNNV provides tighter robustness guarantees than CORA on graph classification models with ReLU-based activations and, for the first time, delivers edge-aware robustness guarantees for GINE-based PF and OPF models under joint node and edge perturbations.

Abstract: Recursive state estimation often executes approximate numerical solutions inside a feedback loop, where highly accurate local steps do not guarantee better overall results. For a fixed linear Kalman model, we characterize when a correction within a prescribed subspace and norm budget can meet a local admissibility tolerance, and how the defects actually executed affect the finite-horizon covariance response. Centering each defect on the exact gain for the implemented covariance separates current solve error from inherited gain drift. Expanding the exact residual-drift identity reveals opposing quartic contributions beyond the quadratic response: innovation-covariance inflation enters positively, while local-gain reoptimization enters subtractively. Under matched initialization, an absolute sixth-order remainder bound, uniform over bounded defect sequences at fixed horizon, gives sufficient conditions for quadratic under- or overprediction. Machine learning proposes bounded corrections, while a learner-independent residual certificate and verified fallback govern execution of classical and quantum candidates without changing the reference estimator. In a power-grid tolerance study, learned correction lowers the minimum conjugate-gradient iteration count for deployment without fallback relative to uncorrected solves under the same residual certificate. Gains reconstructed from a variational quantum linear solver and from an annealing-based binary encoding, with small-scale terminal measurements on superconducting hardware and sampling on a quantum annealer, are executed through the same interface. By linking local repairability to nonlinear error propagation, the framework evaluates approximate solvers and learned corrections through independent certification and finite-horizon response, providing a practical basis for studying hybrid quantum--classical computation.

Abstract: Hierarchical latent communication improves the generalization of a multi-grid power-flow model to new operating scenarios. The module exchanges information through two reduced graphs within a GENCO-based corrective network. We compare Kron-derived transports, a same-anchor Quotient construction and a flat backbone in preliminary trainings of 200 epochs on three grid topologies, with three initialization seeds per model. Evaluation uses 200 newly generated, preselected scenarios per grid. On the training topologies, Kron reduces the macro family-balanced voltage error from 5.660 +- 0.899 to 0.851 +- 0.110: an 85.0% reduction relative to Flat GENCO and 31.0% relative to Quotient, which reaches 1.235 +- 0.225. Both hierarchical models outperform a per-bus mean fitted on training solutions on every training topology in all three seeds. These results demonstrate generalization across operating scenarios within the studied topologies, with one set of learned parameters shared across grids. Evaluation on two additional topologies distinguishes this achievement from cross-topology generalization: the current models do not yet outperform the fitted reference in that calibrated- transfer setting. This preprint presents the architecture and preliminary evidence for hierarchical communication as a component of multi-grid power-flow learning, with generalization to unseen topologies as the next development objective.

Abstract: Data-driven protection may complement conventional relays in distribution grids whose operating conditions vary with distributed generation, switching events, and changing short-circuit levels. We study line-selective tripping from static trajectories of a realistically simulated CIGRE medium-voltage network using offline reinforcement learning. A convolutional Q-network receives causal voltage-current phasor and apparent-impedance features, optionally together with raw waveforms, and is trained with conservative Q-learning (CQL). A controlled sensitivity study evaluates two observation windows, reward variants, and three CQL weights under a common split and training protocol; one exploratory post-hoc run additionally increases the discount factor from $γ$=0.95 to 0.99. On 225 held-out episodes, the best per-timestep result is obtained with combined input and CQL weight $α$=0.9, reaching precision 0.9993, recall 0.9496, and F1-score 0.9738. Because dense per-timestep scores do not encode the terminal semantics of relay operation, we also evaluate the first non-wait action in each episode. The default combined-input agent selects the correct line-trip action first in 98.13% of 214 fault episodes, but trips in 72.73% of the 11 non-fault episodes. In the post-hoc run, the corresponding rates are 98.60% and 54.55%, respectively. The results show that dense predictive performance and terminal protection behavior can lead to different model rankings. Offline CQL therefore demonstrates strong faulted-line selection on the simulated fault episodes, while the static trajectories, small non-fault set, and single-seed post-hoc design preclude conclusions about practical relay security or deployment readiness.

Abstract: Accurate, reliable, and deployable wind power forecasting is critical for power system dispatch, renewable energy integration, and electricity market operations. Progress in this field hinges on the ability to empirically and comprehensively benchmark forecasting methods. Yet existing benchmarks fall short of supporting systematic evaluation in four key aspects: 1) limited coverage of wind power scenarios across turbine scale, variable composition, and spatial structure; 2) incomplete coverage of forecasting model families; 3) evaluation metrics misaligned with wind power requirements; and 4) limited structure-aware diagnostics beyond individual temporal patterns. To address these limitations, we propose WPBench, a comprehensive, fair, and extensible benchmark for wind power forecasting. WPBench integrates 26 public datasets organized by turbine scale and variable composition, spanning single-turbine, multi-turbine, univariate, and multivariate settings. Under unified processing, training, and evaluation protocols, it benchmarks 19 representative models covering traditional methods, deep temporal models, spatio-temporal models, and foundation models. Beyond point-wise errors, WPBench assesses forecast-curve fidelity and computational efficiency, and delivers structure-aware diagnostics across temporal, variable-dependency, and spatial-dependency perspectives. Together, these capabilities enable systematic model comparison across diverse wind scenarios and provide a reusable platform for future research.

Abstract: Transmission system operators face rising complexity from renewable integration, reduced inertia, and tighter security margins. Large language models offer natural-language decision support, but their hallucinations, uncontrolled tool use, and weak traceability conflict with control room requirements. This paper presents a governance-aware agentic digital twin for transmission grid control rooms. The large language model only selects and parameterizes whitelisted analysis tools, and every proposed action passes through a governance layer that the model cannot bypass. The layer enforces four rules on every run. Only whitelisted tools execute. No run exceeds its step budget. No action with side effects executes without explicit operator approval. Every number in an answer is rendered by the layer from backend results with its unit, variable, and time. The rules are checked on a persistent audit trail for every run of a released 118-task benchmark, which covers analytics, simulation, multi-step workflows, and twelve families of adversarial inputs on a digital twin of the Greek transmission network. Across 590 runs of the primary model, tool selection reaches 96.5% and task success 93.7%, and all four rules hold without exception. In a separate three-repetition study across four large language models, 1416 runs in total, the rules again hold on every run, with an approximate 95% lower bound of 99.8%. Removing the layer makes the same model execute all 45 approval-requiring runs without authorization and leaves only 39.2% of its answers with backend-supported numbers. Enforcement costs 12 to 16 milliseconds per request.

Abstract: The integration of renewable energy sources into the electrical grid introduces complex challenges in fault detection and coordination of grid recovery mechanisms. Traditional relay protection systems, which operate based on static rules and predefined thresholds, are inadequate for addressing these challenges, particularly in detecting and isolating faults such as short circuits. Consequently, the conventional methodologies applied to electrical network protection frequently fail to achieve optimal performance in fault detection, especially in terms of adherence to safety standards and the selective limitation of damage. Recent research indicates that machine learning (ML)-based approaches can effectively tackle these issues; however, variations in grid configurations and analysis windows have impeded consistent comparative assessments. In this study, we assess the efficacy of various ML models in detecting electrical faults and pinpointing defective transmission lines within a 10 ms measurement interval - a critical time-frame for real-time operational viability, for the first time. The most effective model attained an F1 score of 0.991 +/- 0.018 and demonstrated a processing time of 0.342ms +/- 0.509ms.

Abstract: Dynamic trajectory prediction has become an important paradigm for data-driven transient stability analysis (TSA), yet most existing predictors remain system-specific and require substantial retraining when network configurations, generation mixes, or state-variable sets change. Uni-TSA introduced a general-purpose TSA framework that combines channel-independent modeling with a pretrained large language model (LLM) predictor. Nevertheless, its application to heterogeneous systems is limited by ambiguity in short observations, a mismatch between numerical trajectories and LLM embeddings, neglected coupling among state variables, and the high inference cost of dense backbones. This paper proposes LLaTSA, an LLM-aligned framework for general-purpose trajectory-based TSA. LLaTSA first incorporates operating conditions, disturbance attributes, and state-variable identity through a structured textual prefix. It then aligns normalized temporal patches with a TSA-related vocabulary before processing them with a pretrained sparse decoder-only mixture-of-experts (MoE) backbone. A state-variable coupling module captures coordinated post-fault evolution, while teacher forcing and rollout-based training support iterative long-horizon prediction. Case studies on multiple test systems demonstrate accurate trajectory prediction, reliable stability discrimination, and effective adaptation across unseen scenarios.

Abstract: The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) computing is transforming data centers into large, dynamic electrical loads. Their deployment is primarily constrained by energy availability and grid-connection capacity, which is further aggravated by the ability of power-delivery architectures, control systems, and computing workloads to operate reliably during fast grid disturbances. This article presents a technological perspective on AI data centers as grid-interactive computing systems. First, it reviews grid-integration bottlenecks, evolving connection policies, grid-code requirements, which has fostered new technological trends via spatio-temporal flexibility available through workload orchestration, cooling systems, on-site resources, and energy storage. Second, it maps the evolution of power-delivery architectures from medium-voltage grid interfaces to chip-level, discussing higher-voltage DC distribution, solid-state transformers, wide-bandgap devices, advanced chip-level power delivery, and liquid cooling. Third, it establishes a three-level stability framework spanning rack-level DC-bus dynamics, facility-level converter interactions, and system-level grid-coupled behavior. The framework connects dominant instability mechanisms, including constant power load effects, impedance interactions, forced oscillations, and operating-mode transitions, with suitable modeling, assessment, and mitigation approaches. Synthesizing these topics, this article highlights grid-to-chip co-design as a central requirement for scalable AI infrastructure, linking computing workloads, power-delivery systems, energy buffers, and grid operation.

Abstract: The digitalisation of electrical distribution networks has increased the exposure of power-grid infrastructure to cyber attacks. Existing intrusion detection systems (IDSs), however, often rely on computationally expensive deep learning models that are difficult to deploy at the edge. Periodic retraining also exposes these systems to machine unlearning attacks, where selective data removal can degrade detection performance. We propose a hybrid Spiking Neural Network (SNN) and XGBoost architecture that combines efficient temporal encoding with a lightweight classifier and provides structural resilience to such attacks. The SNN is trained once on clean data and used as a fixed feature extractor, while only the XGBoost classifier is retrained during model updates. Evaluated on two real-world public power-system datasets, the proposed method achieves 99.9\% accuracy (F1-macro 0.999) on the Synchrophasor dataset and 95.0\% accuracy (F1-macro 0.943) on the MSU/ORNL dataset, outperforming standalone baselines. Under selective label-flipping attacks, the hybrid model loses only 0.9\% F1-macro at 10\% poisoning and delays target-class collapse from 60\% to 70\% poisoning compared with raw models. These results demonstrate that neuromorphic temporal encoding can provide both accurate cyber-attack detection and improved resilience to data poisoning in cyber-physical systems.

Abstract: This paper addresses safety-critical coordination for scalar agents whose distributed commands are implemented through constrained physical-input dynamics. Agents communicate over a fixed weighted digraph with a directed spanning tree, while their outputs must remain inside a common moving safety corridor and their realized inputs must satisfy heterogeneous asymmetric bounds. We propose a networked Admissibility-Preserving Control (APC) architecture in which an Admissibility-Preserving Input Realization (APIR) governs physical inputs and a logarithmic barrier coordinate represents the safety corridor. The synthesis yields an exact cascade in which exponentially decaying realization errors drive nonsymmetric consensus dynamics. For every compatible compact initial set, the closed-loop system admits a unique complete solution, renders the moving corridor and actuator intervals forward invariant with uniform margins, keeps commands bounded, and achieves exponential consensus. We derive direction-specific sufficient conditions under which positive and negative control demands remain within their corresponding actuator limits. The analysis yields a closed-form barrier-coordinate limit determined by the left Perron vector and initial APIR mismatch. Under strong connectivity and the stated gain and compatibility conditions, partial pinning propagates a constant barrier reference from a nonempty informed subset and assigns the induced safety corridor trajectory. A non-weight-balanced example illustrates the directional certificate and predicted collective motion.