policy analysis teams

Abstract: RAG and retrieval-augmented few-shot ICL can struggle when decision-relevant evidence is buried in long, noisy context. Retrieved passages and demonstrations may contain redundant or distracting information. Although expert-labeled development examples may identify the text supporting each decision, these annotations are typically used only as answer-side rationales rather than as supervision for filtering noisy retrieval. We propose silver-evidence demonstrations, which replace raw retrieved passages in ICL examples with generated, target-conditioned evidence summaries. For each labeled development example, an LLM generates silver evidence without access to the expert label or gold evidence; this evidence is then paired with the expert label and gold evidence where available. At test time, a single structured call generates silver evidence from retrieved passages and then predicts the final label and decision evidence. Across EI 2.0, SciFact, synthetic policy retrieval, and HICRIC/IMR data, our full method improves over equally sized gold-only ICL (label-only for policy) on three of four datasets and improves evidence F1 on all annotated datasets. It also achieves higher mean label accuracy than InstructRAG-style ICL on all four datasets. These results suggest that replacing demonstration-side retrieved passages with compact, target-conditioned silver evidence is particularly useful for decisions based on long and noisy text, where it reduces distracting context while preserving decision-relevant signals and expert supervision.

Abstract: Personas used to seed LLM social simulations face a cold-start problem: existing methods lack a principled basis for deciding which attributes to include and how to assign their values. As a result, synthetic populations may misrepresent the demographic composition, latent attributes, and dependency structure that shape downstream behavior. We introduce MetaPersona-DB, a dataset of 11,000+ empirical human-subjects studies annotated with task-relevant variables, reported relationships, and aggregate-level population statistics. Building on this resource, we propose MetaPersona, a framework that retrieves task-relevant evidence, constructs literature-derived persona dependency graphs, and samples synthetic populations from empirical priors linking demographics, latent attributes, and outcomes. Across three downstream case studies, three baselines, and three frontier models, results vary by task and model: MetaPersona performs strongly on misinformation belief and AI-tool sentiment, while results on income redistribution are mixed. It also reduces persona-construction cost to under $0.5 per task using GPT-5.2. Finally, we present MetaPersona-Studio, a prototype interactive interface for empirically grounded persona generation.

Abstract: Before a product or policy change ships, the question that matters is how people will react to it. Augur rehearses that reaction offline: it builds a typed knowledge graph from the change documents, populates a grounded persona market, simulates the interaction, and returns an auditable decision memo recommending one of five actions. We assemble Gold-50, fifty real product and policy episodes whose real-world outcome is known, adjudicated against the public record, and score the five-way release verdict against it. Our central finding is methodological and negative: most of the measured gap between frontier cloud models and open-weight models we fine-tune and serve offline is attributable to an under-specified evaluation, not a difference in capability. We show this three ways. First, the prompt envelope alone can dominate the score: holding weights, cases and scorer fixed, one system -- a LoRA-SFT adapter on Qwen3-32B -- swings from 0% to 73%. Second, in a matched 2x2 ablation, defining the decision taxonomy in the prompt -- with no model change -- lifts every frontier model by +24 to +34pp; under the under-specified prompt, Qwen3-32B LoRA-SFT served offline beats all three frontier models (paired McNemar, Holm-corrected), and once the prompt is fair no significant difference from any of them is detected. Third, agreement with the distillation teacher rises without accuracy following, and the full pipeline amplifies a systematic "over-doom" bias rather than improving the verdict. Separately, we validate the reaction layer on its own terms: blind judges across four model families find the synthetic reaction recovers 67-90% of the concerns the public actually raised, and a pre-registered ablation locates its value -- largest where the decision is hardest, redundant near ceiling. The pipeline that regenerates every number and figure here is available from the authors.

Abstract: Although large language models (LLMs) and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) have advanced open-domain question answering (QA), they remain unreliable when documents evolve through amendments. Existing time-sensitive retrieval methods address only the disjoint-evolving environment, where each update is an independent snapshot. However, laws, policies, and regulations often operate in overlapping-evolving environments, where amendments override earlier clauses while preserving most content, creating strong semantic overlap across versions. We propose TimelyRAG, a retriever-agnostic framework that incorporates temporal distance into ranking to align queries with version-appropriate documents. We also introduce TimelyQABench, the first benchmark for regulation-heavy domains with overlapping-evolving challenges. Experiments show consistent gains, up to +28.6% in nDCG@10, highlighting the importance of temporal reasoning for reliable QA over evolving documents. All resources are available at https://github.com/kaist-dmlab/TimelyRAG.