pharmaceutical modelers

Abstract: Although machine learning potentials (MLPs) generalize across configurational and chemical compound spaces, their accuracy is commonly believed to be limited by their training methods, with improvements beyond this limit achieved so far only by refitting to experimental observables. In this Perspective, we argue that MLPs can also be made more accurate than their training methods non-empirically by generalizing across a third space, that of quantum-chemical methods. We propose routes to method-transferable MLPs that predict at unseen methods, with working implementations in both density-functional and wavefunction-based theories showing that they can be more accurate than any of their training methods. Aiming beyond the accuracy of the training methods could also make universal MLPs more accurate than single-method models, even when the method-transferable MLPs remain less accurate than those QM methods. Method-transferable MLPs will shape the construction of training datasets and the evaluation of models, pushing the accuracy limits of chemical simulations.

Abstract: Neurons of the brain exhibit a rich repertoire of electrophysiology dynamics with the same repeated stimulus eliciting very different voltage responses from the same cell. One common approach in biophysically detailed models is to capture this variability through ensembles of deterministic parametrizations, at a cost of hundreds of thousands of CPU hours. Existing machine learning surrogates inherit the same limitation, where a stimulus is mapped to a single voltage response. We address this challenge by learning a conditional generative model for single-neuron electrophysiology, using flow matching with a velocity field conditioned on the input current. On biophysically detailed models of two human cortical interneuron types, the generated responses closely reproduce the electrophysiological feature distributions, spike-time structure, and excitability profiles, even matching the experimental recordings from the corresponding human cortical neurons. Near the firing threshold, firing and non-firing responses coexist at the same stimulus amplitude, and at high amplitudes, ensembles may split into low- and high-firing modes near depolarization block. We show that our model recovers both modes in each case, while a neural operator baseline suppresses spiking near threshold and blurs the gap between modes at depolarization block.

Abstract: Establishing ordinary differential equations (ODEs) describing population data is a fundamental part of mathematical modeling in pharmacology, crucial to developing digital twins. However, doing so from sparse, noisy data is a slow, expert-driven task. Existing automated methods either search a restricted model space or ignore population inter-individual variability. Here we introduce APOD (Agentic Population ODE Discovery), a language-model agent that iteratively reasons over biological knowledge and fit diagnostics in an open-ended search space to discover a population digital twin (PDT), i.e., a shared ODE system with between-subject variability. On synthetic pharmacokinetic and tumor-dynamics benchmarks, APOD recovered ground-truth structures in 94-100\% of runs, 12-fold faster in median than an established library-based search. On real cohorts it converged to valid structures, and proposed a PDT of radioligand-therapy-induced platelet dynamics that predicts thrombocytopenia from first-cycle data and simulates alternative dosing schedules that lower the predicted risk of toxicity.

Abstract: Generating independent, equilibrium samples of molecular systems at scale remains a central obstacle in computational statistical mechanics. Boltzmann Generators address this by pairing a generative model with importance sampling to obtain consistent samples from the target distribution. We introduce Normalizing Flow Flow Maps (NF$^2$M), which combines the strengths of recent stochastic flow maps with the tractability of classic normalizing flows to build a Boltzmann Generator. Unlike most methods, which correct the generative model only at the end, NF$^2$M reweighs each denoising transition as generation proceeds, avoiding wasted compute on trajectories that are ultimately discarded. At each denoising step, a conditional normalizing flow proposes clean configurations given the current noisy state (a simpler task than sampling directly from the target) and its exact likelihood enables correcting each proposal toward the true denoising transition of the target Boltzmann distribution. This is in contrast to most existing methods, whose likelihoods are approximate or expensive to evaluate, undermining the statistical reliability of the correction. We establish consistency of the corrected transitions and bound how approximation errors propagate through the sampling chain. We evaluate NF$^2$M on peptide systems, demonstrating improved sampling efficiency and sample quality.

Abstract: Predicting cellular responses to perturbations supports the study of gene function, disease mechanisms, and therapeutic strategies. Despite advances in single-cell perturbation modeling, existing models typically optimize surrogate losses that do not directly reflect the biological criteria used for evaluation, so better data fitting need not yield better biological predictions. To address this mismatch, we introduce \textbf{CellRFT}, a reinforcement fine-tuning framework that uses biological evaluation as direct training feedback. CellRFT uses policy-gradient optimization to learn from non-differentiable evaluations of generated cell populations and integrates multiple biological rewards through hierarchical reward aggregation. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate CellRFT's applicability across different pretrained models and effectiveness in improving perturbation prediction, reveal that optimizing one biological criterion can help or hinder others, and show that complementary rewards can improve criteria beyond those directly optimized, offering a way to probe how biological metrics shape model behavior, with the potential to inform evaluation design. Code will be made available.

Abstract: Most molecular transitions occur on timescales far beyond direct molecular dynamics simulations. The committor, the probability that a configuration reaches a product state before a reactant state, is a central kinetic statistic, providing a mechanism-independent reaction coordinate and a foundation for transition path theory and the calculation of rates. This review surveys modern approaches for estimating the committor and related kinetic statistics from molecular simulations, with an emphasis on self-supervised methods that learn solutions of their defining dynamical equations rather than relying on labeled shooting data. We develop a common operator viewpoint connecting generator-based partial differential equations, variational principles, Markov state models, dynamical Galerkin approximation, and neural networks. Empirical and theoretical evidence points to the efficiency of these methods. We provide theoretical and practical guidance for realizing their full potential in applications, including strategies for treating non-Markovian effects and for sampling. We conclude by identifying opportunities for further research, including connections to reinforcement learning and generative modeling.