pharmaceutical data scientists

Abstract: Conformal prediction provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification under exchangeability. However, this assumption is violated by label shift, where the marginal distribution of labels changes while the conditional distribution of inputs given labels remains stable. Under such shifts, standard conformal procedures no longer maintain their intended coverage behavior. Existing approaches address this via importance weighting. They pair the reweighting with residual-based nonconformity scores that ignore predictive uncertainty. The resulting intervals have uniform width. Bayesian conformal methods produce adaptive intervals by leveraging predictive distributions. They evaluate conformity under the source predictive, which is misaligned with the target domain under label shift. We propose the \emph{Label-Shift-Adjusted Bayesian Score} (LSA score), a nonconformity score derived from a posterior predictive tilting identity. This identity shows that the target predictive is an importance-weighted transformation of the source predictive. We use it to derive a direct correction to the Bayesian score. We evaluate the method on molecular property prediction under controlled label shift. The LSA score consistently yields shorter intervals than residual-based and source-based Bayesian scores. Coverage in the target domain remains comparable. Under stronger shift, all methods incur some coverage loss due to pseudo-label-based density-ratio estimation. The LSA score is defined for any source predictive with a tractable log-density. We instantiate it with Bayesian Ridge Regression, where the correction admits a closed form.

Abstract: Designing effective chemotherapy regimens is hindered by tumor heterogeneity and drug resistance, which complicate the deployment of patient-specific model-based optimal control across diverse populations. We develop and compare closed-loop deep reinforcement learning (DRL) dosing policies with continuous (TD3) and discrete (DQN) action spaces trained on a high-dimensional heterogeneous tumor model. The DRL policies are benchmarked against a Pontryagin's Maximum Principle (PMP)-derived open-loop benchmark. We assess generalization under parametric heterogeneity using a 100-patient virtual cohort with plus or minus 10 percent uniform perturbations in growth and drug-sensitivity parameters. Across this cohort, TD3 achieves higher average tumor reduction, while DQN yields tighter inter-patient dosing consistency, revealing a clear efficacy-consistency trade-off in this study. Our simulations assume full observation of all tumor subpopulations; translation to sparse and noisy clinical measurements will require partial-observability formulations and/or state estimation. Overall, the results show that simulation-trained DRL can learn state-dependent feedback dosing policies that complement open-loop optimal control benchmarks.