Abstract: Long-term personalized tutoring requires language models to translate a learner's evolving history into appropriate instructional support. Existing LLM-based tutoring systems use memory and retrieval to personalize responses, but the pedagogical rationale linking historical evidence to teaching strategies is not always explicit. We introduce RegulaTutor, a theory-informed framework for long-term personalized tutoring that connects historical evidence, learner interpretation, and learner-facing instruction. Guided by self-regulated learning (SRL) research, its tutoring harness operationalizes a cognitive, affective, metacognitive, and motivational (CAMM) framework for deriving evidence-supported learner interpretations and teaching policies. The resulting policies retain links to their supporting evidence and are updated as new observations arrive. This staged workflow also supports systematic refinement through PairRoute, an offline procedure that uses intermediate execution records to distinguish harness, model, and mixed failures. PairRoute proposes and evaluates targeted harness revisions, then constructs reviewed stage-level supervision for confirmed model failures remaining under the selected harness. We focus this refinement on historical evidence acquisition, which underpins personalized instruction and allows outputs to be checked against learning records and reference answers. RegulaTutor improves historical-evidence accuracy, learner diagnosis, and judged teaching quality on average across evaluated model configurations. PairRoute results show an endpoint improvement in standalone-model historical-evidence accuracy over the refinement trajectory. Together, these results highlight RegulaTutor's potential to support lifelong personalized education through instructional policies that evolve with learner histories and targeted improvements to the tutoring system.