marketing strategists

Abstract: Because significant action to counter global warming requires massive public support, it is important to understand the dynamics of public opinion on climate issues. Of special interest are social tipping points, as revealed by large-scale effects of small perturbations in individual behaviors. Agent-based models (ABM) are an effective computational tool for studying these matters, because they allow controlled and systematic exploration of the effects of interventions that may be infeasible in real-world social systems. Large language models (LLMs) have been used to endow model agents with the ability to communicate in natural language (rather than by exchanging predefined messages), as well as with personality (in the form of a narrative self and episodic memory). We leverage LLM-powered ABM to look for tipping points in the social dynamics of a micro-society in which some of the discussions are about climate change. Our agents' stance was defined by two variables: the strength of conviction about the urgency of climate action and the degree of trust in existing institutions. We quantified shifts in agents' "beliefs" by monitoring, across multiple rounds of conversations, (1) inter-agent distances in this two-dimensional stance space and (2) the patterns of discussion topics as modeled by Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Our findings to date suggest that significant abrupt changes in climate-change stance do occur in this simple model. We report a number of methodological lessons from this study, notably, the need to prevent LLM biases from interfering with the conversational dynamics and, more generally, to maintain agent personality and episodic memories of interactions in the face of such biases. Resolving these issues may allow for using ABM-derived insights in designing real-life interventions vis-a-vis climate change and other important societal challenges.

Abstract: We study an optimal intervention problem for linear threshold models. This is a popular class of dynamical network systems whereby a number of agents, identified with the nodes of a graph, strategically change their binary action (0 or 1) according to a threshold rule. Specifically, an agent adopts action 1 if and only if the fraction of its neighbors in the interaction graph that do so is greater than or equal to a prescribed threshold. Assuming that a planner can modify the agents' thresholds at a cost equal to the aggregate threshold increase, we study the minimum intervention cost needed to ensure global convergence to the all-1 configuration. Our main contribution is the introduction of a new graph-theoretic quantity, called oriented path number, that is the minimum number of disjoint paths needed to cover the graph that can be oriented to form a directed acyclic graph. When thresholds are all equal to 1/2, the optimal cost is shown to coincide with the oriented path number, whereas, in the general case, it turns out to be the main ingredient of a bound on the optimal intervention cost.