Detecting Covert Collusion between AI Agents through Partner-Outsider Positive Listening
Abstract: AI agents that share a secret convention can coordinate through messages that look innocent, so a monitor that reads only the messages can miss them. We propose a behavioural test: a partner that uses a code reacts to the exact wording of a message, whereas an uninvolved agent placed in its seat does not. Partner--Outsider Positive Listening (PoPLi) is the difference between the two agents in how much their action changes when the message is reworded with its meaning kept, and it is computed after the fact by replaying logged prompts. In a simulated market with five conditions (no collusion, a joint reward with neutral messages, the same with an openly stated intention, a covert first-letter code, and the code with a stated intention), PoPLi is between 0.48 and 0.59 whenever the code is present (95% intervals all above 0.29) and between -0.10 and -0.01 without it. Message-only monitors did not separate the conditions: one reading the speaker's messages answered "no" in all 50 markets, and one reading every seller's messages flagged 9 of 10 markets with no collusion. PoPLi detects the use of a private channel, not collusion as such, and it cannot detect collusion through incentives alone or codes carried by meaning.