Papers for

long-term planning teams

Papers whose findings have a practical use for this group, as judged from the abstract. Open a paper to read what it means in practice.

Robust long-term decision making across multiple states under uncertainty

Vector Bellman Theory for Multichain Robust Average-Reward Markov Decision Processes

Abstract: Robust average-reward Markov decision processes provide a fundamental framework for long-term performance optimization under uncertainty, and can have optimal long-run rewards that depend on the initial state. This state dependence requires a vector Bellman theory that accounts for both recurrent-class rewards and transition uncertainty. We develop such a theory for finite models with compact, post-action $(s,a)$-rectangular ambiguity. A gain-first, bias-second optimization principle yields a coupled vector gain-bias system, and every finite solution identifies the optimal robust gain and supplies stationary saddle strategies against history-dependent opponents, simultaneously from all initial states. We further characterize solvability through stationary gain conditions and a uniform bound on canonical transient corrections, and give sufficient conditions that permit distinct recurrent-class gains. The certificates also yield asymptotically affine trajectories of the robust Bellman operator, based on which we design a robust approximately shifted Halpern planning algorithm. Under finite Bellman solvability, the gain estimates and Bellman displacements converge to the optimal gain vector, and every extracted greedy controller is average-optimal after a finite, instance-dependent budget. These results thus connect finite Bellman certificates to undiscounted planning for state-dependent robust average rewards, providing theoretical understandings.

Wed 23 SeptMachine Learning
The gist
Making good decisions that perform well over a long time is tough when outcomes change depending on where you start. This paper develops a new mathematical framework that helps find the best strategies in complex situations where rewards depend on the starting state and there’s uncertainty in how things change. The authors introduce a system that ensures the best strategy works against even tricky, changing opponents. They also create an algorithm that gradually finds these strategies and proves it will eventually succeed for all starting points.
Open → 2609.28792v1