labor economists

Abstract: Conditional generation is a key capability to be supported by Large Tabular Models, enabling a number of applications. Accurate conditional generation has to contend with two key challenges: $(i)$ Data comprise a mixture of numerical and categorical entries, the latter often with high cardinality and heavily unbalanced proportions; $(ii)$ Conditional generation becomes increasingly difficult for rare sub-populations. The best models in this class use a hybrid of continuous and discrete diffusions. In this paper, we design a continuous diffusion model with strong generation quality. An important element is the use of cross-entropy loss for categoricals, for which we provide a first theoretical justification. We introduce metrics that focus on rare subpopulations. Further, we generalize conditional generation techniques to enable new types of conditioning. Finally, we show that our model (trained on labor data) can capture classical insights from econometrics. Code is available at https://github.com/granica-ai/DiffLTM

Abstract: Changes in occupational task content may have different economic implications depending on whether the tasks gained or lost are occupation-specific or already widespread across the economy. Existing measures of occupational task change largely abstract from this distinction, treating occupations as self-contained task bundles rather than accounting for how tasks are distributed across occupations. We develop a framework to measure a distinct dimension of occupational change, one that goes beyond task expertise or task content: task structure. Using this new framework that tracks tasks across occupations and over time, we separate changes in task quantity from changes in occupational uniqueness, defined as the distinctiveness of an occupation's task bundle relative to other occupations. Using a harmonized dataset of 196563 task statements from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles and O*NET spanning 1977-2018, we measure task diffusion, occupational uniqueness, and distinct dimensions of task addition and removal. Occupations that become less unique are also associated with lower wage growth, and the wage associations of task additions and removals depend on how widely the affected tasks are performed elsewhere. Adding highly diffused tasks is associated with lower wage growth, as is removing occupation-specific tasks. At the economy-wide dimension, however, the pattern differs: the addition of new tasks is positively associated with wage growth, whereas the removal of tasks is negatively associated with it. Taken together, these results show that similar changes in the number of tasks performed by an occupation can reflect economically distinct processes. Incorporating the cross-occupational distribution of tasks, therefore, provides a richer account of occupational change and its relationship to the wage structure.

Abstract: When can we learn from biased samples? We study regression when outcomes are observed only after passing through selection filters that depend on both covariates and outcomes themselves, a ubiquitous challenge spanning clinical trials with patient dropout, labor markets with self-selection, and auctions with strategic entry. Ignoring such selection yields systematically biased conclusions with real-world consequences. This challenge has a long history in econometrics and statistics, starting with Heckman's seminal two-stage model and followed by numerous generalizations. While these works provide various sufficient conditions for identification, a complete characterization of when such regression is possible has remained elusive. In this work, we provide a characterization for when regression is possible in the presence of sample selection bias. Our results establish the minimal assumptions required on the functional forms of selection processes under which regression remains possible, which are particularly relevant in modern settings where selection mechanisms are increasingly complex and opaque. As a corollary of our characterization, we show that there are settings where the regression function can be identified even when the selection filter itself cannot. This observation already goes beyond the ``estimate selection filter, then debias regression'' paradigm that is followed by virtually all existing approaches. Under natural strengthenings of our identification conditions, we also establish finite-sample estimation guarantees with explicit convergence rates and provide oracle-efficient algorithms. This yields the first general-purpose estimation method for this broad class of selection problems. Finally, we explore the implications of our results for several well-studied econometric settings with complex selection mechanisms such as auctions with entry costs and labor markets.

Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping labor markets, yet its effects on wage distribution and the underlying mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. Conventional analytical approaches are limited in their ability to directly examine the dynamic evolution of worker behavior and income distribution under sustained AI shocks and counterfactual policy scenarios. To address this limitation, we present a hybrid agentic framework that aims to challenges of scalability of rule-based models and the limited explainability in LLM-agentic frameworks. Using this framework and sociodemographic data from China, we simulate changes in wage distribution under repeated AI shocks. The results show that both the average-wage ratio between workers in the top and bottom income deciles (T10/B10) and the Gini coefficient increase persistently, suggesting that AI shocks widen the wage gap and exacerbate income inequality. This pattern of a widening wage gap remains robust across alternative large language model decision engines and 30 Monte Carlo simulations. We further conduct counterfactual policy experiments. The results show that education subsidies targeted at low-income workers increase both the number of skill-upgrading attempts and the number of successful upgrades, with particularly pronounced improvements in the upskilling success probability of workers in the bottom income decile. These effects enable the policy to partially mitigate wage inequality. The proposed framework provides an interpretable simulation approach for examining the effects and mechanisms of AI shocks on wage distribution. It also offers policymakers a complementary analytical tool for evaluating policy interventions.