industrial monitoring teams

Abstract: Multivariate time series produced by industrial installations and server clusters are under continuous monitoring, and anomaly detection is the first line of defense before a local fault escalates into a system-wide failure. In the absence of labels, the dominant paradigm trains a reconstruction model on normal data and scores the residual to reach a verdict. Recent work has steadily enriched the expressiveness of the recovery map through Transformers, diffusion models, and cross-scale associations. A residual, however, only certifies that an observation can be recovered; it does not certify that the variables still explain one another as they do under normal operation. A coordinated yet unfamiliar operating transition inflates the residual without breaking any relationship, whereas a sensor drifting away from its peers may leave the residual silent. Methods that fold inter-variable dependencies into the reconstruction objective inherit this ambiguity, because their relational evidence is ultimately supervised by the same recovery loss. We therefore propose CLOSURE, which evaluates recoverability and cross-channel consistency as two normal-data prediction tasks learned in separation. The recoverability task is solved by a diffusion reconstructor conditioned on a discrete memory of normal temporal bases. The consistency task is solved by a relation-closure operator that predicts every channel exclusively from the others, where the target's own trajectory is withheld and sparse signed gates decide which peers are actually used. The two scores are reconciled only through calibration on normal data. Extensive experiments show that CLOSURE consistently outperforms recent reconstruction-, frequency-, and topology-based detectors on public benchmark streams, confirming the value of examining consistency alongside recoverability.

Abstract: Autonomous IoT systems rely on distributed sensing, but sensor faults and communication loss can leave multichannel evidence incomplete or unreliable. Their agents must therefore classify measurements, assess evidence sufficiency, select a sensor to reacquire, and hand off unsafe decisions. We formulate counterfactual sensing: a degraded window defines the factual state, each candidate restoration defines a controlled alternative, and a pre-request utility model estimates loss reduction. Physics-Guided Invariant-Kinematic Fusion (PGIK-Fusion) constructs class evidence, while calibrated risk and cost-sensitive utility select acceptance, sensor request, or handoff from factual information. On the Logistic Activity Recognition Challenge dataset, PGIK-Fusion achieves 0.768 accuracy and a macro-averaged F1 score (Macro-F1) of 0.696, exceeding extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)--one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN) fusion by 2.49 and 2.00 percentage points, respectively. Across seven predefined degradation conditions on held-out subjects, the policy reduces unsafe acceptance from 33.0% to 13.8%; relative to an action-rate-matched random policy, it raises automation accuracy by 18.5 percentage points and lowers expected cost by 24.7%. In the auxiliary within-event wind-turbine study, PGIK-Fusion reaches 0.975 Macro-F1, improves on XGBoost--1D-CNN by 1.17 percentage points, and reduces unsafe acceptance from 20.1% to 8.0%. The evaluation characterizes the controlled responses of a frozen recognition model to specified sensor restorations under predefined fault families and severities. Within this scope, the results demonstrate that calibrated recognition, targeted evidence acquisition, and conservative deferral can form a unified perception--action loop that reduces unsafe automation under sensor degradation.

Abstract: Time-series anomaly detection is dominated by reconstruction-based neural detectors, whose objective is structurally flawed. Since the target is also the input, an expressive model can learn to reconstruct anomalies too, leaving uninformative residuals. Recent large-scale benchmarks show that, on curated data, elaborate deep detectors rarely beat simple statistical baselines, while current leaders rely on representation learning. We propose LEAP (Latent Embedding Anomaly Patch-Transformer), which combines masked prediction with latent representation-based anomaly evidence, without relying on reconstruction or attention-based scoring. The model removes patches from a window and predicts them from the remaining temporal and cross-channel context, so prediction errors measure how well learned dynamics explain hidden segments. Deterministic complementary group masking ensures every time step is scored while hidden, with identical visible fractions during training and inference. LEAP adds three label-free evidence sources: latent-embedding novelty calibrated by local density, local temporal contrast, and per-channel novelty pooled over channels selected by six label-free criteria. Under the TSB-AD protocol, the full model achieves a VUS-PR of $0.5179 \pm 0.0022$ on $180$ held-out multivariate series. On TSB-AD-U, a univariate variant combining multi-scale masked-prediction scoring with latent novelty, without contrast or channel-pool novelty, achieves $0.6194 \pm 0.0016$ on $350$ held-out series. Both results average three random seeds. A five-stage ablation on TSB-AD-M, supported by paired Wilcoxon signed-rank tests, shows statistically significant gains from each successive component.

Abstract: Time-series tasks require both accurate predictions and fast decisions. Advances in large models have introduced decision-oriented models that directly output answers and their probabilities, which we call Structured System 1 models. Their applicability to time-series tasks remains underexplored. Using Jev 1.13.0 as a case study, we evaluate time-series classification, event type prediction, oil temperature direction and stock movement prediction, converting continuous forecasting targets into discrete decisions to fit the model interface. We establish a unified evaluation framework using accuracy and AUC. Results show stronger performance on selected explicit temporal patterns and event type prediction, but near-chance discrimination on many numerical sequence classification tasks and stock movement prediction. Some datasets also reveal a gap between ranking quality and final decision accuracy. These findings motivate improvements in temporal representation, domain adaptation, and decision-score alignment. Standardized sample construction, model calls, and result recording support extending the evaluation to future models.

Abstract: In unsupervised multivariate time series anomaly detection (MTSAD), local variation can inflate reconstruction and forecasting errors, making observation-space discrepancy an unreliable indicator of abnormal system behavior. Since latent-space scoring can mitigate this limitation, we reframe one-class MTSAD as current-point system-state compatibility estimation and propose TENET, the Time-point Encoding Network for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection. We define the current-point system state as a latent representation of the target time point, constructed from variable-level temporal context in the input window. TENET constructs this state through a temporal layer that retrieves window context relative to the current point, encodes time with current-point-centered embeddings, and adaptively mixes the retrieved context with the current representation. With this design, TENET treats the input window not as the object to reconstruct, forecast, summarize, or score, but as context for constructing a latent representation evaluated with a fixed standard-normal negative log-likelihood score. Across benchmark datasets, TENET achieves state-of-the-art performance. Additional experiments further show that TENET remains effective under alternative one-class objectives and outperforms substitutions based on generic sequence encoders, suggesting that its advantage comes from decision-aligned representation construction rather than from a specialized scoring rule. These results indicate that one-class MTSAD can be strong when the latent representation is designed around the current time point.

Abstract: TS2Vec is one of the strongest self-supervised methods for time series classification, introduced in 2022. It is designed to be trained anew on every dataset: self-supervised pre-training followed by linear probing. Since then, the field has shifted towards foundation models that reuse one encoder across datasets. Yet TS2Vec offers a compact convolutional architecture that operates directly on temporal samples and accepts variable-length inputs without resampling. We ask whether these properties can be retained when the encoder is pre-trained only once, and show that they can: TS2Vec can essentially be turned into a foundation model. Three changes suffice: pre-train on a synthetic corpus, feed the encoder a raw amplitude view and an instance-normalized shape view of the input through two small stems, and distill one specialist encoder per view into a single encoder. The result, TS2Vec-FM, is a 1.6M-parameter dilated convolutional network that, kept frozen, reaches 83.3% on UCR-128 and 75.3% on UEA-27 under linear probing, within 0.3 pp of MantisV2, the current state of the art, and above TS2Vec trained separately on each target dataset. What we find most interesting is how different TS2Vec-FM is from other foundation models in design: near-parity is reached without attention, without a patch tokenizer, and without intermediate-layer extraction, using an "old-school" convolutional encoder and a two-layer MLP stem.

Abstract: Flow Matching (FM) is an efficient simulation-free approach for training flow-based generative models, making it a promising foundation for scalable time-series anomaly detection (TSAD). However, standard FM learns a monolithic vector field in which nominal transport and local density-changing behavior are entangled. This creates a central challenge for TSAD; local expansion and contraction carry crucial anomaly-sensitive information, yet isolating this signal requires expensive Jacobian-trace estimation over the entire field. We propose \emph{Helmholtz Component Flow Matching} (HCFM), an unsupervised TSAD framework that parameterizes the vector field prediction network with separate transport, compression, and residual heads. The transport head is constrained to be divergence-free, so divergence estimation is restricted to the compression head, while a lightweight residual head absorbs the remaining mismatch. This structured parameterization improves scalability and detection performance by separating volume-preserving nominal transport from density-changing compression, yielding cleaner anomaly signals from distinct deviations of nominal behavior. Experiments on large-scale univariate and multivariate TSAD benchmarks show that HCFM consistently improves detection accuracy while maintaining efficient inference compared with 16 baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/TrustAIoT/HCFM__time-series-anomaly/

Abstract: Reconstruction-based detectors for multivariate time series anomaly detection typically learn a single entangled representation of normal behavior and flag anomalies based on reconstruction error. However, real-world anomalies are not only isolated spikes in a single channel but also disruptions in the relationships between channels, where each sensor individually appears normal, but their joint behavior deviates from the norm. Because these models compress both temporal evolution and inter-channel structure into this single space, they lack an explicit mechanism to isolate such inter-channel dependencies from normal temporal dependencies, leading to lower detection rates for cross-channel anomalies. We propose CARMA (Correlation-Aware Reconstruction for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection), which is a reconstruction-based variational autoencoder with two complementary latent spaces: a temporal latent that captures sequential dynamics, and a correlation latent that is trained to reconstruct the window's pairwise Pearson correlations. Both representations are fused in the signal decoder, and anomalies are detected from the reconstruction error. We evaluate CARMA on the TSB-AD-M benchmark suite (17 datasets, 180 series) against 29 baseline methods, and show that it significantly outperforms all of them across multiple threshold-free and range-aware metrics, achieving a VUS-PR of 0.4929. Ablations show that removing the correlation branch degrades performance, that adding a second latent without supervision recovers only part of the gain, and that supervising the correlation latent with an explicit correlation target accounts for the rest and produces a sharper error response at anomalies.

Abstract: Classical CUSUM relies on the log-likelihood ratio of the underlying distributions, which cannot generally be computed from finite pre- and post-change samples alone. We propose diffusion-integrated score CUSUM (DI-SCUSUM), a training-free detector. We add Gaussian noise to the samples to form two smooth density estimates and calculate their Hyvärinen scores exactly, without training a score network. For each incoming observation, we sample a diffusion time, perturb the observation, and use the importance-weighted score difference as an increment in the DI-SCUSUM recursion. Under the assumption that observations follow the fixed empirical distributions, the post-change mean increment is proportional to the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from the smoothed post-change to the smoothed pre-change empirical distribution. We establish exponential false-alarm scaling and a first-order delay bound that, for a fixed threshold and increment scaling, is inversely proportional to the KL divergence. In the calibrated anisotropic Gaussian simulation, DI-SCUSUM nearly matches likelihood-ratio CUSUM and reduces the measured detection delay by about 91% relative to score-based CUSUM. On MNIST and Oxford-IIIT Pet, DI-SCUSUM also has lower empirical conditional detection delay than SCUSUM at comparable false-alarm levels.

Abstract: Time-series anomaly detection (TSAD) identifies deviations from patterns learned from historical data. In non-stationary settings, distribution drift and true anomalies can cause similar local changes, making it difficult to tell whether a deviation reflects abnormality or evolving context. Existing methods typically adapt to detected shifts or learn drift-insensitive representations, but do not resolve this ambiguity. We define this problem as \emph{temporal change disambiguation}: determining whether a local deviation is explained by broader temporal evolution. We introduce MORA, a drift-robust TSAD framework that reconstructs the same local target from paired short- and long-term views. The reconstruction gap measures contextual support for a local deviation, and a data-dependent correction mechanism conservatively adjusts the primary local anomaly score. Context can only reduce the score when it improves reconstruction of the same target. MORA needs neither drift annotations nor online adaptation. Experiments on four TSAD benchmarks show strong robustness to non-stationarity while preserving sensitivity to genuine anomalies.

Abstract: Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) achieve strong generalization by learning to reconstruct or forecast broad temporal patterns from large-scale time series during pre-training. Yet this strength can become a weakness for anomaly detection: TSFMs may model rare anomalous patterns as effectively as normal ones, allowing anomalies to be accurately reconstructed or forecasted and thus diminishing their reconstruction/forecasting error-based anomaly scores. This paper proposes $\underline{\textbf{N}}$$\textbf{ormality}$ $\underline{\textbf{C}}$$\textbf{onstraint}$ $\underline{\textbf{L}}$$\textbf{earning}$ ($\textbf{NCL}$), a lightweight plug-and-play framework that adapts pre-trained TSFMs for accurate anomaly detection without modifying their pre-trained parameters. Our key insight is to constrain the broad pattern space of TSFMs to the normal structure of a target time series, preventing their broad modeling capability from obscuring abnormal deviations. Specifically, NCL constructs a compact normality subspace from a few normal patch features and adaptively steers each patch feature toward normality within this subspace, guided by contrastive constraints that form compact and discriminative normality manifolds. The calibrated features are aggregated to reinforce normal components and fused with the original TSFM output, amplifying the discrepancy between normal and abnormal observations for the reconstruction/forecasting error-based anomaly scoring. Extensive experiments across diverse TSFM families and benchmarks show that NCL consistently improves anomaly detection performance, providing a generalizable framework for adapting TSFMs to anomaly detection.

Abstract: Whether a time-series pattern is anomalous often depends on the operating regime of the monitored process. A missing event can signal a fault in one regime and be routine in another, and the query alone may not reveal which regime applies. We study in-context learning (ICL) for time series anomaly detection (TSAD) through reference-conditioned detection, where a reference record provides evidence about expected behavior and model parameters remain fixed at inference. Supplying the reference is not enough: when training anomalies are recognizable from the query alone, the detector can fit its targets while ignoring the reference. We therefore introduce counterfactual supervision, which pairs one query with two references that support different normal rules and labels the query under each. At positions where the two labels disagree, no detector that ignores the reference can fit both targets. Anlu learns from this supervision by adding a reference memory and zero-initialized gated adapters to a frozen time-series foundation model (TSFM) pretrained for anomaly detection. On the 350 TSB-AD-U evaluation sequences, Anlu raises the mean VUS-PR of the frozen TSFM from 0.542 to 0.607. Replacing the reference with zeros lowers Anlu's score to 0.499.

Abstract: When a SCADA alarm is raised in a water distribution network, operators must decide quickly whether it reflects a cyberattack, a physical fault, a normal transient or a faulty sensor. Supervised classifiers need labelled incidents that utilities rarely have, and frontier large language models (LLMs) take tens of seconds per decision. We tested whether Jev, a training-free model that returns class probabilities in about one second, can serve as the first tier of this triage. On a four-class cause-attribution benchmark built on the C-Town network in EPANET, Jev was compared with a hand-written rule tree, a supervised classifier and seven cloud LLMs on identical evidence in four sealed, pre-registered rounds. With only a label-free prior correction, Jev matched the rule tree (macro-F1 0.62-0.64 against 0.56-0.61 in distribution) and exceeded the supervised classifier by 0.36-0.42 on event subtypes absent from its labels, in all four rounds, and it outperformed the classifier whenever fewer than about four labelled events per class were available. Jev also decided 20-40 times faster than frontier LLMs. Accepting only benign Jev verdicts confirmed by the rule tree spared an LLM reviewer 35-38% of windows on fresh sealed sets without loss of macro-F1. Transferred unchanged to two further networks, this gated cascade stayed within the non-inferiority margin of its reviewer on all four sets. A fast, training-free screen can therefore take over about a third of the review load in SCADA anomaly triage while preserving the accuracy of deliberate review.

Abstract: Time-series anomaly detection trades off predictive accuracy, computational efficiency, and interpretability. We use a large language model not as the detector but as the author of one: an autonomous research loop in which the model repeatedly edits a single short NumPy program under a leakage-free objective, keeping the best-scoring detector it finds. The loop discovers two compact detectors, one for univariate and one for multivariate series, that describe short windows by their local spectral features and compare them with the training-region distribution through a covariance-aware distance. On the TSB-AD benchmark these detectors lead the field across metrics, ahead of the strongest classical, deep, and foundation-model baselines including Time-RCD, yet they train no network and use no GPU, and the multivariate detector is faster than every similarly performing baseline. LLM-driven program search is thus a practical route to accurate, efficient, and transparent detectors.

Abstract: Time-series anomaly detection (TSAD) is difficult to generalize across datasets because heterogeneous temporal dynamics imply different notions of normality and favor different detection criteria. While time-series foundation models provide transferable representations, coupling them with a fixed anomaly-scoring mechanism can overlook this variation. This motivates a different perspective on foundation-model-based TSAD: using foundation models to coordinate specialized anomaly criteria rather than directly imposing a universal one. Based on this view, we propose \textbf{TS-Router}, a generalist-representation, specialist-detection framework that estimates the relative competence of heterogeneous anomaly detectors from pretrained temporal representations and selects suitable specialists for each target series. To avoid relying on specialist-performance labels from real tasks, we derive soft competence supervision from specialists' relative performance on labeled simulated tasks. At deployment, routing requires no target anomaly labels, and only the selected specialists are fitted unsupervisedly on the target series. We bound Top-\(k\) set-competence regret under representation coverage and conditional competence stability. Across 16 real-world benchmarks and four complementary evaluation metrics, TS-Router achieves the best overall average rank. Controlled ablations with multiple frozen TSFM encoders further support the use of pretrained representations for competence estimation and adaptive specialist selection. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/TS-Router-D8FF.

Abstract: Reconstruction errors in multivariate time-series anomaly detection may not reliably distinguish abnormal behavior from benign deviations. Language-derived semantics offer complementary context, but existing multimodal approaches may rely on time-associated paired textual information that is difficult to obtain consistently and is not provided by standard multivariate time-series anomaly detection benchmarks. This setting poses two challenges: (1) conditioning masked reconstruction on window-specific semantics without exposing exact numerical targets or anomaly-specific cues, and (2) using a window-independent concept of normality as a complementary semantic reference rather than an independent anomaly detector. We propose LLM-Enhanced Alignment and Reconstruction with Normality Guidance for Time Series (LEARN-TS), which uses a frozen language model to construct two role-separated semantic representations without requiring temporally paired external text. Window-specific observation semantics encode temporal and cross-variable context without exact numerical values to guide channel-shared patch-masked reconstruction. A fixed, dataset-agnostic normality prompt provides a window-independent semantic reference for aligning normal representations and estimating normality discrepancy. At inference, masking each temporal patch once yields timestamp-level reconstruction evidence, conditionally modulated by discrepancy from a separate unmasked view. Across four benchmarks, LEARN-TS achieves the highest mean performance in 13 of 16 dataset-metric comparisons. Controlled ablations examine observation conditioning, joint normality alignment and scoring, and reference content, showing dataset-dependent ranking benefits and modest average gains from semantic over random references.

Abstract: Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) plays a crucial role in healthcare, finance, industrial monitoring, and other sectors. Within and between these settings, anomalies span vastly different temporal scales, from sub-second point spikes to multi-hour drift patterns. However, most existing TSAD methods commit to a single temporal granularity, and multi-scale designs either analyze different scales in isolation or are constrained to a predefined coarse-to-fine hierarchy, both failing to sufficiently capture multi-scale interactions. To resolve this limitation, we propose Multi-Scale Autoencoder with Cross-Scale Attention for TSAD (MSCAD), a simple yet powerful semi-supervised TSAD framework founded on parallel autoencoder branches corresponding to different patch sizes. A stack of symmetric bidirectional cross-scale attention blocks enables every pair of scales to exchange information before reconstruction without allowing any single scale to be privileged. On the comprehensive TSB-AD benchmark (40 datasets, 530 series), MSCAD achieves large performance gains against 50 baselines across multiple metrics, with VUS-PR of 0.57(+9.6%) on the univariate split and 0.47(+9.3%) on the multivariate split compared to the state-of-the-art.

Abstract: Multivariate Time Series (MTS) clustering is an important tool in temporal data mining, aiming to discover latent group structures from complex observations without supervision. Although existing deep clustering methods can learn discriminative temporal representations, the resulting latent clusters are often difficult to relate back to waveform characteristics that practitioners can directly inspect and compare, limiting their ability to assess whether the discovered patterns reflect meaningful temporal behaviors. This paper, therefore, proposes WAVE (Waveform Aligned Visual-temporal Embedding), which treats time series and their deterministically rendered waveform plots as complementary views of the same observations. To produce discriminative representations whose cluster structures can be traced to observable waveform characteristics, WAVE aligns and integrates fine-grained temporal variations with holistic visual patterns, while associating each discovered cluster with its centroid-nearest authentic sample. Accordingly, interpretability in this work specifically refers to waveform-level traceability rather than a general explanation of model decisions. Extensive evaluations across 10 real-world public datasets show that WAVE achieves the highest macro-averaged clustering performance and the best average rank among the compared methods, while qualitative case studies illustrate how the discovered clusters can be inspected through authentic waveform records. The source code is available at https://github.com/Zheng-Zhu1/WAVE.

Abstract: Multivariate time series anomaly detection typically relies on evaluating discrepancies between observations and outputs produced by models trained on normal data. An alternative perspective is to characterize the distribution of normal data through the generative dynamics, i.e., the velocity field, of flow matching models. However, standard flow matching typically adopts linear probability paths that overlook dependencies among variables, leading to a misalignment with the structured data distribution. To address this issue, we propose GRASP, a flow matching framework with a graph-spectral path for multivariate time series anomaly detection. GRASP incorporates graph structure into the probability path by minimizing a fixed-endpoint action that combines kinetic energy with graph Dirichlet energy. This formulation yields a closed-form path based on graph-frequency-dependent hyperbolic interpolation. A velocity predictor trained on normal data then detects anomalies using weighted velocity discrepancies aggregated across source samples, flow times, and graph frequencies. Theoretically, we establish that GRASP is invariant to the choice of Laplacian eigenbasis and decompose its expected oracle anomaly score into bounded endpoint uncertainty and graph-frequency-weighted Fisher discrepancy. Experiments on four benchmarks demonstrate the superior anomaly detection performance of GRASP and validate the effectiveness of its graph-spectral path and weighting mechanism.

Abstract: Identifying the root cause of an anomaly among hundreds of sensors is critical for preventing safety incidents and costly downtime in complex monitored systems. Existing studies evaluate root cause analysis (RCA) methods using top@k accuracy. We show that this metric has a fundamental blind spot: it conflates two failure modes, retrieval failure, where the true cause is never considered, and reranking failure, where it is considered but ranked too low. In this work, we introduce a retrieval-reranking decomposition and audit four well-known benchmarks to expose this blind spot. Our experiments show that, on benchmarks with complex faults, statistical baselines mis-rank the true cause 79-100% of the time, and graph-based methods never clearly beat the best statistical baseline, whether their causal graphs are learned on short fault windows, on retrieved candidate pools guaranteed to contain the cause, or on multi-day normal-operation data. Meanwhile, on simple benchmarks where faults manifest significantly at their origin, retrieval is nearly solved (98-100%). Guided by the decomposition, we build a two-stage pipeline combining a multi-signal retriever with an LLM reranker that, as one fixed configuration, matches or exceeds the best baseline's top@1 accuracy on all six benchmark suites (by up to +12 points), with no causal graph or labeled data required. When all methods rank the same retrieved candidates with the true cause guaranteed present, adding a short system-description document lets the reranker lead the best baseline by +7 to +18 points on every benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/DecompRCA.

Abstract: Multi-dimensional time series, inherently tensorial, are common in practice. Despite great progress in time series anomaly detection, most existing methods are confined to uni-/multi-variate time series. When handling multi-dimensional time series using these methods, reshaping operations are required, which inevitably break the intrinsic correlations and thus lead to performance degradation. In uni-/multi-variate time series anomaly detection, AutoEncoders (AEs) are widely adopted and generally categorized into reconstruction-based and prediction-based AEs. The reconstruction-based AE utilizes the current observation for reconstruction, while the prediction-based AE utilizes the historical information to predict the current observation. Thus, the two AEs utilize different information. To bridge the gap between reconstruction-based and prediction-based AEs, so as to fully leverage the available information and thus further enhance performance, we propose a predictive prior and incorporate it into the reconstruction-based AE. It may not be very difficult to conceive this idea, but designing the predictive prior so that it can work for tensor anomaly detection is non-trivial. Specifically, to avoid breaking the intrinsic correlations within the multi-dimensional time series, we use the tensor AE as the backbone. To incorporate the predictive prior into the reconstruction-based AE, we propose a Bayesian fusion approach and our analysis reveals that this approach can enhance the modeling capability of the model for normal data. To mitigate the over-generalization problem of AE, we incorporate physical laws, i.e. tensor low-rank decomposition rules, into the neural networks in the predictive prior, leading to the Physics-informed Predictive Prior Tensor AE (PPPTAE) framework. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Abstract: Many temporal process learning and monitoring pipelines operate in local windows, making window-level decisions unavoidable in practice. In such settings, classical statistical tests can be applied to individual windows, but they typically evaluate predefined parametric hypotheses-such as unit-root or moment-based conditions-thereby limiting flexibility when reference behavior is defined empirically from task- or domain-specific data. In this work, we view window-level monitoring as a process control problem and reformulate it as reference-based hypothesis testing, where the null hypothesis is specified by an empirical reference distribution rather than a fixed parametric model. We operationalize this perspective through a representation-based, nonparametric framework that combines pretrained time series encoders, kernel density estimation, and conformal calibration, yielding finite-sample valid inference in learned representation space. Classical notions such as stationarity and cyclostationarity arise as natural instantiations of empirical reference sets within this framework. Through experiments, we demonstrate sensitivity to window-level distributional deviations while maintaining well-calibrated inference under stable reference regimes, highlighting the applicability of the proposed approach to a broad class of time series process control and monitoring tasks.

Abstract: Video anomaly detection (VAD) aims to localize anomalous events in untrimmed videos. Vision-language models (VLMs) provide rich visual understanding for training-free VAD, but existing approaches impose restrictive interfaces between visual understanding and anomaly scoring. Caption-based pipelines compress visual evidence into text, potentially discarding subtle cues, while direct numerical generation forces the model to express its judgment through a small set of predefined scores. Such interfaces can obscure subtle differences in anomaly severity, causing visually distinct clips to receive similar representations or scores and thereby limiting the resolution of anomaly ranking. We propose \textbf{Probe-VAD}, an ordinal binary-probing framework that directly probes severity preferences from a frozen VLM. Given raw video clips, Probe-VAD queries ten ordered severity thresholds and extracts constrained \textit{YES}/\textit{NO} continuation likelihoods. Their normalized preferences form a cumulative severity profile, from which tail evidence is aggregated into a continuous anomaly score, with isotonic projection enforcing ordinal consistency. Experiments on public VAD benchmarks demonstrate superior performance with low computational cost. Probe-VAD provides a simple interface for translating frozen VLM visual understanding into continuous, rank-sensitive anomaly scores without task-specific training or caption-based compression. Code is available at: https://github.com/yvestine/COVAS-VAD.

Abstract: Unsupervised multivariate time series anomaly detection methods typically identify anomalies through forecasting, reconstruction, or representation discrepancies. However, industrial faults may first alter inter-variable structural patterns while individual trajectories remain close to normal, resulting in weak anomaly signals. In this paper, we propose GSLAD, a prototype-regularized graph structure learning framework that uses structural deviations for anomaly scoring. GSLAD adopts a two-phase training strategy. First, a condition-aware graph learner and a graph-based forecaster are optimized with predictive supervision. The inferred normal graphs are then clustered into multiple structural prototypes representing different normal operating regimes, with edge-wise variability characterizing structural uncertainty. Deviations from these prototypes regularize the graph learner in the second phase, encouraging stable and regime-specific structural patterns. During inference, uncertainty-normalized structural deviation is combined with predictive deviation for anomaly scoring. Experiments on four industrial benchmarks demonstrate strong overall performance of GSLAD and confirm the effectiveness of structural deviation for anomaly detection and diagnosis.

Abstract: Time series data is very common in many real-world applications and in numerous domains, with increasing interest for automated information extraction using machine learning. One of these subfields is time series clustering, which consists in identifying clusters among a set of time series in an unsupervised fashion. Most time series clustering algorithms suffer from the same balancing act: they trade clustering performance for faster runtimes or vice versa. We present a novel time series clustering algorithm that we call CLUES-WEASEL, which stands for CLustering with the UnsupervisEd Second version of Word ExtrAction for time SEries cLassification. CLUES-WEASEL extracts features using the unsupervised version of the transformation step of WEASEL 2.0, which is a time series classification algorithm, then reduces these features using principal component analysis, and finally performs clustering with the $k$-means algorithm using these reduced extracted features. Through extensive experiments, we prove that CLUES-WEASEL is significantly better than any other existing time series clustering algorithm while being (much) faster than any state-of-the-art one. We also show that the architecture of CLUES-WEASEL can work well with other time series feature extraction algorithms. Our findings highlight the relevance of CLUES-WEASEL for time series clustering.