Abstract: To comply with recent regulations requiring traceable generated content, modern watermarking has adopted multi-bit post-hoc watermarking schemes. These modern designs rest on an encoder-decoder pair implemented as deep neural networks. These models are usually treated as pure black-boxes trained end-to-end, with the noise of the watermarking channel modeled through a fixed set of geometric and valuemetric transforms applied to watermarked images. We argue that this purely empirical approach leads to unquestioned design flaws and a lack of theoretical performance guarantees. This work proposes a general theoretical model of modern post-hoc watermarking schemes grounded in a statistical analysis of the outputs of the encoder/decoder pair. We show that these deep neural networks implicitly define a watermarking channel modeled as parallel AWGN channels, with messages transmitted using BPSK modulation. This imposes a binary alphabet, greatly limiting the capacity of these watermarking systems. Another fatal flaw is their lack of a secret key, making them intrinsically insecure. We make this notion of watermarking security precise for post-hoc schemes by linking it to the possibility of estimating the secret key under a given statistical model of the decoder's output. By putting together the results from this theoretical analysis, we introduce SNW: a novel post-hoc watermarking system that significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art baselines in terms of capacity while also providing strong security guarantees. Notably, it does not depend on a fixed codebook or binary alphabet, allowing it to reach a rate close to Shannon capacity through the use of capacity-achieving error-correcting codes.