healthcare data scientists

Abstract: The estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is a central objective of causal inference. However, state-of-the-art algorithms to solve this task are based on machine learning principles, and thus behave as black boxes. Consequently, the identification of covariates driving heterogeneity remains a challenging and open problem. To address this limitation, we introduce CausalTreeHFD, an interpretable extension of causal forests, based on the Hoeffding functional decomposition adapted to tree ensembles. Our approach decomposes predictions of conditional average treatment effects (CATE) into contributions from individual covariates and pairwise interactions, providing a direct characterization of the factors driving treatment effect heterogeneity. We establish the consistency of CausalTreeHFD, which converges towards the Hoeffding decomposition of the underlying CATE function, under standard assumptions for the analysis of causal forests. Experiments on simulated and real datasets show that CausalTreeHFD accurately identifies relevant covariates and interactions, and precisely recovers their contributions to heterogeneous treatment effects.

Abstract: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) identify treatment effects without confounding but are often small, whereas observational studies (OBS) are large but may be confounded. Many estimators combining a small RCT with a large OBS have been developed for the average treatment effect (ATE) and the conditional ATE (CATE). However, existing ATE estimators either make assumptions on the OBS or do not borrow enough power from them. The CATE has been studied less than the ATE. Existing CATE methods either assume the OBS are unconfounded, rely on a model of the confounding function, or accept bias in exchange for lower variance. We therefore propose a framework that, without special assumptions on the OBS, fuses the OBS and the RCT by preserving the unbiasedness of RCT-based estimation while borrowing power from the large OBS to boost precision. Applying this principle, we build an ATE estimator, AIPW-Fusion, with closed-form weights and confidence intervals, and two CATE learners, DR-Fusion and R-Fusion. Experiments corroborate our findings.

Abstract: Accurately quantifying the predictive uncertainty or improving model calibration plays an important role in medical image classification, in particular in melanoma diagnosis, where accurate uncertainty quantification can have significant implications for patient care. One of the methods for calibration improvement is data augmentation. In addition, data augmentation as a method for synthetically increasing the size of the dataset has been proven to improve the performance of models trained on imbalanced datasets. However, the impact of data augmentation, as a transformation of a part of the original data, on calibration of models trained on imbalanced datasets, in particular in melanoma classification is under-explored. We train neural networks on SIIM-ISIC 2020 melanoma classification dataset under two conditions: with and without data augmentation, and compare the differences in AUC and expected calibration error (ECE) in both scenarios. Our results shows improvements in uncertainty calibration using different augmentation methods.

Abstract: Fine-grained vision-language alignment in chest radiography enables zero-shot classification, grounding, and segmentation without task-specific annotations. However, this alignment is fundamentally hindered by two intertwined sources of ambiguity: projection-induced visual mismatch and patient-agnostic semantic overlap. First, at the local feature level, frontal and lateral radiographs exhibit distinct appearances for the same clinical finding, rendering a shared patch-text similarity geometry inherently suboptimal. Compounding this visual ambiguity is a semantic mismatch during global contrastive optimization, where instance-level objectives penalize cross-patient pairs as strict negatives even when they share identical positive clinical concepts. To address this dual ambiguity, we propose PLRS-IC, a unified dual-calibration framework for chest X-ray representation learning. At the local alignment stage, Projection-Conditioned Low-Rank Residual Similarity (PLRS) dynamically adapts patch-text matching to projection-specific manifolds using a bounded, parameter-efficient low-rank residual. At the global optimization stage, Information-Content-Calibrated Soft False-Negative Suppression (IC-SFNS) leverages a corpus-derived information-theoretic prior to soften the penalty of semantically overlapping negatives without altering original contrastive assignments. Extensive experiments across nine public zero-shot benchmark settings demonstrate that our framework yields consistent improvements in classification, grounding, and segmentation, validating the necessity of dual-calibration in medical vision-language pre-training.