health insurance analysts

Abstract: Population health stratification frameworks, such as the Italian DM77, organize patients by clinical need and care pathways but offer limited guidance on which care changes to prioritize under constrained resources. We present PROMETHEUS (Proactive Resource Optimization through Multi-treatment Effect-based Targeting in Healthcare Environments Using Stratification), a framework that formulates population health stratification as a multi-treatment causal ranking problem. Its objective is to order eligible patient-treatment opportunities by expected incremental benefit rather than obtain perfectly calibrated individual treatment-effect estimates. Each clinically admissible care intensification is compared with maintaining the patient's current pathway. Treatments are learned jointly to produce a globally comparable ranking across patients and care profiles, within domains sharing a reference condition, outcome, follow-up horizon, and benefit scale. This separates clinical need, treatment benefit, and resource-constrained allocation. PROMETHEUS combines doubly robust causal signals with a Siamese neural ranking model and contrastive representation pretraining. The shared representation captures similarities across care transitions, supporting prioritization under capacity constraints. Synthetic experiments and semi-synthetic experiments using real administrative covariates from ASL Benevento evaluate ranking quality, allocation value, robustness, and failure modes. The results support the framework's ability to recover generated benefit orderings and prioritize care opportunities in the evaluated settings. PROMETHEUS provides a preclinical approach to actionable stratification; validation with observed treatment-outcome data is required before clinical use.

Abstract: Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosis requires sequential evidence acquisition under heterogeneous test costs and patient burden. Fixed-modality predictors do not jointly decide which test to acquire or when the available evidence is sufficient for diagnosis. We propose SCOPE-AD (Sequential Cost-Aware Ordinal-Belief Planning with Energy-Based Models for Diagnostic Agents) for cost-aware classification of cognitively normal (CN), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and AD cases. A mask-aware ordinal model represents uncertainty along the ordered CN--MCI--AD continuum. Retrospective training records provide sampled Bellman targets for an energy-based teacher, whose action distributions are distilled into a Qwen policy. At deployment, the agent selects acquisition or diagnosis actions under availability and budget constraints without access to unacquired values. After each acquisition, the evidence and ordinal belief are updated before the next decision. On ADNI, SCOPE-AD achieves 77.70\% Macro-F1 at an average acquisition cost of \$50.46, exceeding the strongest evaluated baseline by 9.34 percentage points. Full-modality evaluation raises Macro-F1 by only 1.89 points while increasing acquisition cost by 116.7 times. These results support selective acquisition for cost-effective diagnosis.

Abstract: Answering epidemiological questions from real-world clinical data requires medical coding, schema-aware SQL, and validation of implicit choices about populations, denominators, and time. We present Ascent, an agentic system that exposes medical coding, question answering, and cohort analysis through a shared Model Context Protocol tool surface for standardized and native schemas. We introduce EpiTrap, a dataset testing whether systems avoid recognized pharmacoepidemiological errors, and compare a fixed pipeline with agents across models and orchestrators. With capable models, agents improve accuracy over the fixed pipeline by an average of 27 and 20 percentage points on native and standardized schemas, respectively. These gains require more tool calls and longer runtimes. Experience from real projects highlights the system's value for feasibility assessment, diagnostic iteration, and expert-guided analysis.

Abstract: Credit default prediction is a tabular classification problem in which modest gains in F1 translate directly into reduced financial exposure. We ask whether Instantaneous Quantum Polynomial-time (IQP) circuits can produce features that improve a classifier over both its raw classical baseline and Kernel PCA - the strongest unsupervised classical non-linear alternative - at an equal feature budget. The dataset provides 23 financial attributes per client; for an n-qubit circuit we select n of them, encode each as a rotation angle, and read 2n expectation values back out as new features. The motivation for using a quantum circuit is computational: an n-qubit IQP circuit runs in constant depth and encodes feature correlations in a 2^n-dimensional Hilbert space, whereas classical simulation of its exact output statistics scales exponentially in n. Using the UCI Default of Credit Card Clients dataset and five-fold cross-validation, we find that appending 16 IQP features (n = 8 qubits) to a Logistic Regression model raises F1 from 0.462 to 0.517 (+0.055, p < 0.0001). Kernel PCA, the next-best method, reaches only 0.493 at the same feature count; the gap survives Benjamini-Hochberg correction across 12 tests (p = 0.00007). No other classifier - Random Forest, SVM, XGBoost, or k-NN - benefits, which points to a linear-expressivity mechanism rather than a generic improvement. We also show that how the 8 input features are chosen matters: Random Forest importance-guided selection reaches F1 = 0.523, while encoding maximally uncorrelated features drops it to 0.496, demonstrating that the circuit amplifies informative structure rather than creating it from scratch.