government policy teams

Abstract: In contrast to even a year ago, AI systems now write most of the code inside the companies that build them. As more of the AI research and development (R&D) pipeline is automated, could AI progress radically accelerate in an "intelligence explosion," where years of advances are compressed into months or less? Preliminary evidence suggests that it could. In this work, we assess this evidence, analyze an intelligence explosion's potential impacts, and propose policy responses. AI systems are on track to automate most AI R\&D work within a few years, and possibly all of it. If this triggers an intelligence explosion, it could dramatically bring forward AI's benefits, but also pose extreme risks: capabilities growth could accelerate far beyond what society can keep up with, humanity could lose control over superhuman AI systems, and checks on power within and between states, companies, and branches of government could be severely eroded. Although there remains much uncertainty about these possibilities, the high stakes warrant serious further attention. Policymakers should urgently obtain more visibility into the automation of AI R&D, develop ways to steer and constrain an intelligence explosion, and prepare society to adapt to an intelligence explosion's impacts.

Abstract: Science, technology, and innovation policies are crucial for competitiveness, yet their diversity and scale make them difficult to map and monitor consistently. Existing approaches rely heavily on manual survey efforts, which are costly and challenging to scale across countries. Large language models (LLMs) enable new possibilities for extracting and structuring information from long and unstructured policy documents. This paper presents an application of LLMs as "AI respondents" for generating structured survey responses from policy texts. We develop a data extraction pipeline based on long-context in-context learning to map information from public web sources into predefined survey categories, including policy instruments, target groups, and thematic areas. The pipeline integrates a validation step using a secondary LLM to assess relevance and evidence, alongside comparisons with human-provided responses. Using a multi-country dataset, we evaluate the alignment between LLM-generated and human-generated outputs through overlap measures and cross-validation. Results show that LLMs achieve high agreement for structured indicators (84-95%), while differences remain in free-text fields, where models tend to provide more detailed procedural descriptions. These findings highlight the potential of hybrid human-AI workflows for policy monitoring, improving both efficiency and scalability while maintaining the need for human validation and contextual interpretation.

Abstract: Social simulation offers the social sciences an experimental instrument that the real world cannot supply, and generative agents have transformed it by acting as silicon samples that unite agent-based modeling with real behavioral data. Existing platforms verify collective behavior, align simulated populations with real societies in cross-sections, and employ autonomous agents for the research process. However, two social science requirements remain without systematic support: intervention in the content of a simulation and the researcher's control over the process that produces it. We present SocioVerse2, which extends SocioVerse 1.0 into a human-AI co-evolutionary paradigm built from two loops and one infrastructure. The longitudinal simulation loop simulates the target population with evolving environments and forks counterfactual branches via interventions. The controllable research loop takes the study itself as an editable state and updates state versions via controllable editing. The social science agentic infrastructure carries both loops through composable skills with researcher checkpoints, a population service over five persona pools, and an environment service over 21 real-world signal sources with point-in-time guarantees. We validate SocioVerse2 across three case families and seven case studies, from reproducing canonical agent-based models to modeling policy processes on real records and nowcasting macro-economic indices beyond the response model's knowledge cutoff. With the human-AI co-evolutionary paradigm, these cases go beyond system demonstrations to become substantive studies that investigate frontier questions in their respective disciplines. Code, data services, and a workbench are released as open-source resources.