Papers for

government disaster teams

Papers whose findings have a practical use for this group, as judged from the abstract. Open a paper to read what it means in practice.

Agentic AI predicts crop losses from extreme weather in Florida

From extreme weather to agricultural consequences with agentic AI

Abstract: Extreme weather is forecast days ahead, yet its consequences for agriculture remain hard to predict: a forecast says where a storm will strike, not which crops will suffer or how much is at risk, and the records that could tell span many sources. We present WxCrop, the first agent that judges agricultural hazards from physically interpretable weather indices examined by causal analysis, and the first that combines weather and agricultural information to predict crop loss reliably for past and forecast dates. We demonstrate it in Florida on hurricanes, freezes and dry heat, with a loss model calibrated on insurance records for each, and the same procedure extends to other hazards and areas. Three checks show reliability: the hurricane index detects recorded cyclone days with an AUC of 0.98, recorded losses in held-out years are reproduced to within 2%, and independent production records confirm the county rankings (rank correlation 0.63). Users ask the agent for each crop group's loss as a fraction of expected season value, every number sourced, so that governments, growers and scientists respond to agricultural disasters quickly.

Thu 29 OctArtificial Intelligence
The gist
Extreme weather like hurricanes, freezes, and heat can damage crops, but it's hard to predict which crops will be affected and by how much. The authors created WxCrop, a smart system that uses weather data and past agricultural records to estimate crop losses accurately. They tested it in Florida using insurance and production records, showing it can closely predict damages from different weather events. This helps farmers and governments respond faster and better to agricultural disasters.
Open → 2610.40641v1