Papers for

financial modelers

Papers whose findings have a practical use for this group, as judged from the abstract. Open a paper to read what it means in practice.

Deep operator learning speeds up sampling for complex stochastic systems

Deep operator learning for efficient sampling from invariant measures of stochastic differential equations

Abstract: We introduce an amortized neural sampler that combines operator learning with flow methods for sampling. It maps SDE coefficient functions to pushforwards from a reference measure to the invariant measures, enabling efficient sampling across families of stochastic differential equations. Our framework shifts traditional sampling cost to an initial training phase, after which new SDE instances require only one encoder pass and a few ODE solver steps, independent of mixing time. To handle problems in high dimensions, we use Lagrangian trajectory sensors for the coefficient functions and cross attention in the architecture. We also theoretically establish the expressivity and resolution invariance of our framework. Experiments on 1D and 2D SDE families show competitive accuracy with substantial speedups over MCMC in regimes with slow mixing, transfer across sensor counts, and demonstration results on a 64D interacting particle SDE where traditional grid approaches are infeasible.

Thu 10 SeptMachine Learning
The gist
Sampling from complex random systems described by stochastic differential equations (SDEs) is often slow and computationally expensive. The authors created a neural network-based sampler that learns how to generate samples from a wide range of these systems after initial training. This method then produces samples quickly for new problems without the usual long wait times. They also showed that their approach works well even for very high-dimensional problems where traditional methods fail.
Open 2609.11376v1

Integration method reduces sample size with similar accuracy benefits

Quasi-Monte Carlo Beyond Hardy-Krause II: $(1 + \varepsilon)n$ Samples Suffice

Abstract: Numerical integration studies how well one can estimate the integral of a function $f$ over $[0,1)^d$ using $n$ sample points. The two classical methods, Monte Carlo (MC) and quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC), have complementary strengths and weaknesses, and a fundamental question is to design an approach that combines the benefits of both. Recently, building on the transference principle in discrepancy theory, Bansal and Jiang~\cite{BJ25a} gave a randomized QMC method that bridges MC and QMC guarantees using only i.i.d.\ samples. Their method also goes beyond the classical Koksma--Hlawka inequality: it achieves integration error $\widetilde{O}_d(σ_{\mathsf{SO}}(f)/n)$, where the smoothed-out variation $σ_{\mathsf{SO}}(f)$ can be substantially smaller than the Hardy--Krause variation that governs the classical bound. However, their algorithm requires $n^2$ i.i.d.\ samples as input, and this quadratic blowup is inherent to any method based on the transference principle. In this work, we bypass the quadratic blowup: for any constant $\varepsilon > 0$, we show that $(1+\varepsilon)n$ i.i.d.\ samples suffice to both obtain the beyond-Hardy--Krause guarantee of~\cite{BJ25a}, resolving an open problem posed there, and to produce low-discrepancy point sequences. Our algorithms are variants of the online Haar-thinning method of Dwivedi, Feldheim, Gurel-Gurevich, and Ramdas~\cite{DFG+19}.

Thu 10 SeptData Structures and Algorithms
The gist
Calculating the average value of complicated functions can be done by sampling points and averaging their outputs. Traditional methods either use random points (Monte Carlo) or carefully chosen points (quasi-Monte Carlo), each with pros and cons. The authors built upon a recent method that combined these two approaches but needed a large number of samples. Their improvement drastically cuts the extra samples required, making the method more efficient while keeping good accuracy. This new approach helps in generating sample points that balance randomness and structure for better estimation.
Open 2609.10921v1

Improving gradient mapping complexity for constrained stochastic min max problems

How to Make the Gradient Mapping Small for Constrained Stochastic Min-Max Problems and Beyond

Abstract: We study the stochastic first-order oracle complexity for constrained or regularized convex-concave min-max optimization and stochastic monotone variational inequalities. We focus on the case when suboptimality is measured in terms of the gradient mapping, also known as, forward-backward or natural residual, an optimality notion that generalizes the gradient norm for unconstrained problems. In this setting, under standard unbiased oracle access with now-standard variance assumptions, the best-known complexity for making the norm of the gradient mapping less than $\varepsilon$ is $\widetilde{O}(\varepsilon^{-4})$, compared to the near-optimal $\widetilde{O}(\varepsilon^{-2})$ that is established in the unconstrained case. We bridge this gap to improve the gradient mapping complexity for constrained convex-concave min-max problems to $\widetilde{O}(\varepsilon^{-2})$. We then extend to prove the same complexity for problems without the bounded variance, by using the Blum-Gladyshev assumption.

Tue 8 SeptMachine Learning
The gist
Stochastic min-max problems arise in many applications where one wants to optimize the worst-case scenario under constraints. A common way to measure progress is using something called the gradient mapping, which generalizes gradients to constrained settings. Previously, the best known methods required a lot of steps to reduce this gradient mapping to a small value. The authors found a way to achieve the same efficiency in these constrained problems as is known for unconstrained cases, speeding up the process significantly. They also extended their results to cases where the usual assumptions about randomness do not fully hold.
Open 2609.08380v1

Sharp risk bounds found for estimating effects in partial linear models

Sharp Structure-Agnostic Minimax Risk for Partial Linear Models

Abstract: We characterize the sharp structure-agnostic minimax risk for coefficient estimation in the partial linear model when the outcome and treatment nuisances are learned by two distinct black-box learners, which resolves the open problem in double machine learning posed by Gu (2025). For each nuisance \(q\in\{μ,π\}\), we characterize the available learner by an approximation-error budget \(a_q\) and a stochastic-error budget \(s_q\), with the latter controlled through localized Rademacher complexity. Writing \(\mathcal E_n\) for the minimax mean-squared error, we show that \[\mathcal E_n\asymp1\wedge\left\{\frac1n+\left(a_μa_π+\min\left\{a_πs_μ+s_π^2,\,a_μs_π+s_μ^2\right\}\right)^2\right\}.\] The main new ingredient is a novel lower bound for the general two-learner problem. Our proof constructs four finite-mixture testing experiments using orthogonal code functions. Across these experiments, the hidden perturbations are placed outside both learner classes, outside only the treatment learner class, outside only the outcome learner class, or inside both learner classes. These four configurations capture, respectively, the interaction between the two approximation errors, the two asymmetric interactions between one learner's approximation error and the other learner's learning error, and the joint estimation difficulty of learning both nuisances. Combining the four resulting lower bounds yields the displayed rate, which matches the latest upper bound in Gu (2026). Our result shows that standard double machine learning can overstate the intrinsic difficulty of target estimation and provides a target-specific principle for learner selection: approximation error and stochastic complexity must be jointly balanced across the two nuisance learners rather than optimized separately.

Mon 7 SeptMachine Learning
The gist
Estimating relationships in complex data often requires accounting for hidden factors with separate prediction tools. This paper finds the exact limits on how well one can estimate key effects when using two different prediction methods whose errors interact. The authors show that balancing approximation accuracy and randomness in both tools together is crucial, challenging previous beliefs that treated these errors separately. Their results help guide better choices of methods when combining predictions for more accurate effect estimation.
Open 2609.07997v1

Smoothed Picard method improves sampling from complex shapes

Smoothed Picard Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Abstract: We develop a new low-accuracy sampler, called \emph{smoothed Picard Hamiltonian Monte Carlo}, which combines Gaussian smoothing, Picard iteration, and higher-order discretization. For a log-concave target $π\propto \exp(-V)$ in dimension $d$ satisfying $0 \prec αI \preceq \nabla^2 V \preceq βI$, with condition number $κ:= β/α$, smoothed Picard HMC returns a sample with $\sqrt α\,W_2(\cdot,π) \le \varepsilon$ using $\widetilde O(κ^2 + κ^{7/6} d^{1/6}/\varepsilon^{1/3})$ gradient queries. We also prove stronger $W_q$ bounds, and then develop an algorithmic framework, the recursive warm start generator, to upgrade these $W_q$ bounds to stronger divergence guarantees. This produces a warm start for the proximal bouncy particle sampler, introduced in a companion work, leading to a high-accuracy log-concave sampler with complexity $\widetilde O((κ^{7/6} d^{1/6} + κ^{1/2} d^{1/4})\mathrm{polylog}(1/\varepsilon))$.

Mon 7 SeptData Structures and AlgorithmsMachine Learning
The gist
Sampling from complicated high-dimensional shapes is important in fields like statistics but can be slow and inaccurate. The authors developed a new method that uses smoothing and improved iteration steps to produce samples more efficiently for a certain class of shapes. They provide mathematical guarantees on how accurate the samples are and how many steps the method needs. The technique also helps generate better starting points for another sampling method, improving overall accuracy.
Open 2609.06906v1