financial data teams

Abstract: Using customer conversations to train and evaluate financial language models raises confidentiality concerns because non-public financial facts can remain after direct identifiers are masked. Synthetic transcripts offer an alternative data source, but their discourse fidelity and residual confidentiality risks require assessment. We introduce DiRAFT (Discourse Realization from Aggregate First-order Transitions), which extracts financial concept graphs and records the order in which concepts are first introduced. It pools adjacent concept transitions across training records and samples new graph plans from aggregate transition, starting-concept, and plan-length priors. A discourse layer guides text realization without supplying an individual source passage or graph. We assess privacy-related risks through two complementary evaluations: corpus-level structural overlap and source-grounded checks for specific non-public investor facts. The structural assessment covers two financial corpora and three generation backends. The confidential-fact assessment uses human review of 1,400 investor-call outputs across seven strategies and two backends. We also evaluate transition fidelity, content recoverability, and trajectory diversity. Stochastic sampling provides a favorable balance between transition fidelity and structural overlap, with consistent advantages over greedy and top-3 on investor calls. The confidential-fact assessment likewise detects fewer matches for stochastic sampling than these alternatives on both backends covered by the fact assessment. These complementary assessments provide empirical evidence on residual confidentiality risks without establishing a formal guarantee.

Abstract: Organisations keep decades of financial records as scanned PDFs on shared drives, and AI agents can now reach those drives through Model Context Protocol (MCP) servers. Existing benchmarks do not mirror this production setting because they simplify the task. In some, the relevant documents are handed to the agent, so it never has to search. In others, the agent searches through documents with pre-extracted text, so it never has to read scanned images. We introduce TreasuryQA Bench, which requires both: 70 questions over 1,435 scanned U.S. Treasury publications, held in Veris's high-fidelity Dropbox twin. In each task the agent searches for the relevant file through Dropbox's MCP server, reads the pages it needs with Reducto's hosted OCR server or its own tools, and replies with one exact figure. A Python grader checks each answer against an accepted range around the correct value. In this paper we present results from ten agents. The best, Claude Opus 5.5 in Claude Code, solves 64.8% of attempts and the worst, GPT-5.6 Terra in Codex, solves 16.7%, so the benchmark is far from saturated. We also test how scan quality affects performance: every agent solves fewer tasks on the blurriest scans. Most failed attempts reply with a wrong number rather than no number, and the most common cause is a digit misread from the scan. Three worked examples are included with their answer keys.

Abstract: Summing vectors is a basic task in differentially private data analysis. Standard private sum algorithms clip vectors to some bound, sum them, and add noise scaled to the bound. The differential privacy literature has developed a deep library of noise addition mechanisms, but it offers few tools for privately choosing a clipping bound based on the data. We introduce a method that privately chooses a clipping bound by optimizing residual coherence, the directional alignment of vectors exceeding the bound, against the variance cost of additional noise. We prove a close relationship between residual coherence and bias for a general class of heavy-tailed data regimes and show empirically that, across several datasets, our method outperforms existing baselines.

Abstract: Time-series forecasting models typically use a fixed decoding strategy at inference time: either one-shot prediction of the full horizon or autoregressive rollout over atomic chunks. While one-shot decoding reduces error accumulation, it can discard useful sequential structure; conversely, autoregressive decoding preserves temporal dependencies but may compound errors. We argue that the optimal decoding strategy is not fixed across inputs, but should be selected adaptively for each forecasting instance. We propose a dynamic strategy selector that treats the forecast rollout schedule as an inference-time decision problem for frozen pretrained time-series foundation models. The selector is a learned network that ranks candidate rollout schedules using hidden states of the backbone, and is trained on historical windows of the evaluated tasks for each backbone. To make the candidate set tractable over the exponentially large space of horizon partitions, we use dynamic programming that reduces candidate evaluation to quadratic complexity while preserving much of the oracle gain. At deployment, five independently trained selectors vote on each decision, and the policy follows their consensus, falling back to the backbone's one-shot forecast where they disagree. The construction requires only the backbone's hidden states and lightweight selectors, with no fine-tuning of the forecasting backbone. On fev-bench with a frozen Chronos-2 backbone, agreement-gated selection improves point-forecast skill (MASE) over one-shot decoding with statistical significance, mostly on longer horizons. It recovers about 6-8% of the gain that the same dynamic program attains with ground-truth selection. With a frozen Moirai-1.1-R-small backbone, the improvement is also significant on the full benchmark, and for both backbones we claim gains in point accuracy only.

Abstract: Corporate financial disclosures often unfold over time, with announcements, prepared remarks, and discussion spanning multiple high-frequency return intervals. Financial NLP benchmarks can therefore suffer from a within-event timing mismatch when the prediction target begins before the textual or audio input used by a model could be complete. Chronological train--test splits do not prevent this mismatch, because it occurs inside individual events rather than across samples. We introduce an Availability Contract, which requires a benchmark to state the input boundary, evidence for input availability, the outcome start, and the claims supported by that evidence. We apply this framework to 552 earnings calls from 24 firms. For each call, we hold the return endpoint fixed and compare the previous close, a documentary call-start proxy, and a completion proxy based on reconstructed audio end plus a stipulated processing allowance. At this baseline, moving from the call-start proxy to the completion proxy flips return signs for 9.4% of calls. Holding completion-clock cutpoints fixed, 28.3% change quintile. In an independent release-session analysis of a public earnings-call volatility benchmark, shifting before-market target windows forward by one trading session raises three-day mean squared error by 18.1-21.4% across four frozen prediction streams, while their point rankings remain unchanged. Together, the results show that labels and losses can depend materially on the declared outcome clock even when model rankings appear stable. The Availability Contract makes this assumption explicit and ties post-input claims to the available timing evidence.

Abstract: Despite remarkable progress in language understanding and generation, decoder language models continue to exhibit striking failures on numerical data. Numerical examples are typically serialized as text by concatenating feature names with their values (e.g., fat:3.4), while conventional task adaptation applies loss only to the downstream prediction target. This leaves two structures weakly supervised: within-value sensitivity, where digit position determines numerical magnitude, because token cross-entropy contains no explicit numerical metric; and across-field structure, where measurements in the same record are statistically dependent, because target-only tuning provides no direct loss on the measurements or their dependencies. We introduce MoMaTune (Model, Match, then Tune), a two-stage post-training strategy organized around these supervision gaps. Stage 1 applies Model, ordinary next-token prediction densely over label-free serialized records, and optionally adds Match, a same-record consistency objective that aligns representations of different partial views of the same example. Stage 2 applies Tune, supervised fine-tuning for downstream target prediction. We evaluate MoMaTune on 169,285 records from eight public datasets, with 339 of 340 input fields numerical. At 1.5B parameters, Model raises the eight-dataset masked-value imputation aggregate from 0.106 to 0.401, while the three-dataset correct-context gain rises from 0.058 to 0.167. On diagnostics, Model also increases sensitivity to numerically consequential digit changes, while Match improves robustness to informative partial views. Adding Tune yields higher target-supervised embedding aggregates for each tested Stage-1 parent, and the two-stage recipes obtain higher aggregate scores than Tune alone. The same pattern is observed at 4B, 9.6B, and 27B parameters when model embeddings are used for downstream prediction.

Abstract: Temporal point processes are used both to measure market mechanisms, for example how fast prices absorb news and how much of the reaction is the market responding to itself, and to predict the next event. We show that one algebraic object, the phase-type (Erlang-chain) state space, serves both purposes with exact likelihoods. For measurement, we build a multiscale phase-type Hawkes process whose parameters all enter linearly. Its log-likelihood is concave, and we compute the global maximum together with a Fenchel duality-gap certificate. A Markov embedding gives the response to an exogenous shock, echoes included, in closed form, and this response is stable if and only if the spectral radius of the branching matrix is below one. Applied to six markets around 670 scheduled macroeconomic releases (2022-2026) with a built-in placebo test, the model shows that the direct reaction to CPI, payrolls, PPI and the FOMC statement is absorbed in about a second, while the market's own echoes stretch half of the response to 16-137 s. For prediction, we introduce EPT-X, a neural point process that adds a history-dependent mixture-of-Erlang renewal channel to a linear Hawkes backbone. Its intensity and compensator remain in closed form, its states follow an affine recursion that trains with a parallel scan, and it can start from the certified fit of the measurement model. EPT-X has the best test likelihood on all five LOBSTER order-book streams and on Retweet and Taobao, and is level with the best published model on StackOverflow. We also find that the EasyTPP implementation of IntensityFree clamps short inter-event times before scoring, and that the gaps of the EasyTPP Amazon data are uniform on two fixed intervals.

Abstract: Correlation matrices combine nonlinear positive-definiteness constraints with a simultaneous row-column permutation symmetry. Their generation therefore involves two distinct problems. First, every output must remain on the correlation elliptope, irrespective of how its variables are ordered. Second, the generator must learn the domain-specific distribution occupied by empirical data inside that valid space. Existing financial image generators mix these problems: they learn ordered matrix entries and repair invalid draws afterward. We introduce CorrFlow, which separates them. A generalized Fisher transform maps full-rank correlation matrices bijectively to unconstrained coordinates, guaranteeing valid outputs without projection. A graph flow-matching network learns the empirical distribution in those coordinates and is permutation equivariant: reordering the variables only reorders the output. We compare a conditional CorrGAN reimplementation, image diffusion, and CorrFlow on $80\times80$ Taiwan equity matrices using five seeds per neural method. CorrFlow produces 100% valid draws without repair and obtains feature sliced-Wasserstein distance $.712\pm.141$, versus $4.339\pm.252$ for CorrGAN and $4.610\pm.191$ for image diffusion after their invalid outputs are projected back to the correlation space. It also improves this distance over historical lookup, while lookup retains higher local coverage. These results support the combined construction under the evaluated training budget; they do not establish superiority over fully tuned image models or isolate the contribution of each component.

Abstract: DAG structures can be learned from observations by incorporating acyclicity via smooth constraints, such as DAGMA's log-determinant function. Typically, observations and the underlying DAG are related through linear structural equation models, with Gaussianity assumption on the disturbances at each node. Extending DAG learning methods that account for scale and tail behavior of disturbances that vary across nodes remains a challenge. We propose a node-varying Student-$t$ DAGMA that jointly estimates the graph structure, node-specific disturbance scales, and the degrees-of-freedom parameter. A Gaussian scale-mixture representation yields an iteratively reweighted formulation that down-weights large standardized residuals. Building on existing results, we also establish identifiability of the graph and disturbance parameters. Synthetic experiments demonstrate improved structural recovery under heterogeneous heavy-tailed disturbances, and experiments on real finance data show that the proposed method yields lower test negative log-likelihood than the evaluated baselines.

Abstract: Physical reservoir computing exploits the nonlinear dynamics of physical systems to process time-dependent data with greater energy efficiency than conventional machine learning approaches. However, physical reservoirs have fixed intrinsic response timescales, whereas real-world signals combine deterministic and stochastic components across multiple timescales. Here we show, using a nanoporous niobium oxide reservoir, synthetic noisy signals and cryptocurrency-price volatility, that the relationship among noise correlation time, reservoir memory and forecast horizon determines whether correlated noise is filtered or predicted. Noise varying faster than the relevant reservoir memory and forecast horizon is averaged by the reservoir, whereas the temporal structure of slower-varying noise is sufficient for algorithmic forecasting. We introduce the reservoir memory horizon and forecasting regime index to distinguish these operating regimes. These contributions demonstrate that timescale matching can guide the encoding of input time series and development of physical reservoir architectures that filter, analyse and predict stochastic signal components across distinct temporal scales.

Abstract: Retrieval-augmented generation systems can route difficult queries to deeper context, but batch deployments must allocate a shared token budget across calls whose costs vary by query. We formulate selective escalation as finite-batch allocation for financial document question answering. Each of 150 FinanceBench questions first receives a top-1 retrieval answer. Predictors estimate the adjudication-quality gain and token cost of an optional top-5 call, and the allocator prioritizes calls by predicted gain per token. At the nominal 10% budget, gain-per-token allocation improves adjudication quality over gain-only ranking by 0.034 (95% document-bootstrap CI [0.001, 0.072]) while using 46.6% fewer total tokens than one-pass top-5 retrieval. Additional-call cost is accurately predictable (R-squared 0.93), whereas beneficial escalation remains difficult to rank (AUROC 0.60). These results show that heterogeneous cost is actionable under tight constraints, while progress across the full budget frontier depends on stronger query-specific benefit estimates.

Abstract: Fairness assessment in algorithmic decisions that affect individuals, such as credit scoring, often relies on parity measures calculated at the aggregate group level. Such measures may not reveal which individuals experience unfairness or which explanatory factors contribute to it. In this paper, we propose a rank-based framework that evaluates fairness through the distribution of model prediction errors, thereby linking fairness assessment with predictive accuracy and explainability. The framework combines Rank Graduation Fairness (RGF), its integrated measure AURGF, a centered Cramer--von Mises permutation test, and a feature removal procedure for fairness explainability. We evaluate the methodology using logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting, and a multilayer perceptron. The simulation study shows that protected-group imbalance can reverse descriptive fairness comparisons, whereas the proposed inferential procedure correctly distinguishes fair from unfair mechanisms. Its application to HMDA mortgage data produces model rankings that differ from those obtained with classical fairness criteria. Tree-based models, rather than logistic regression, provide the strongest combination of predictive accuracy and rank-based fairness, while the fairness null hypothesis is rejected for all four models. The persistence of disparity across statistical, bagging, boosting, and neural network specifications, together with the feature removal results, indicates that the observed unfairness is not specific to a single algorithm or predictor, but is associated with group differences embedded in the characteristics of the lending data. These findings support a broader approach to trustworthy artificial intelligence that combines predictive accuracy, fairness measurement, statistical inference, and explainability.

Abstract: Researchers increasingly use generative large language models (LLMs) to convert corporate text into empirical variables. We examine the extent to which LLM-based textual measures are invariant to model choice using thirteen measures, including sentiment, management clarity, uncertainty, answer specificity, and climate and political risk. Seven LLMs from different providers score earnings call transcripts of S&P 500 companies on these constructs. Cross-model rank correlations average only 0.52, and transcript-level differences common across providers account for only 34% of total score variation. Cross-model disagreement does not predict subsequent analyst or market disagreement, consistent with a substantial model-specific component rather than common ambiguity in the underlying disclosure. Model choice significantly affects downstream inference, with coefficient magnitudes, signs, and statistical significance varying substantially across models. Averaging across providers makes transcript rankings more stable for most constructs, but score levels remain sensitive to the models included in the ensemble. LLM-generated variables should therefore be treated as model-contingent measurements and validated across providers.

Abstract: Time series analysis is fundamental in domains such as finance, healthcare, and meteorology. Real-world time series often exhibit multiscale characteristics shaped by diverse latent factors, resulting in intricate temporal patterns and rich frequency structures. However, existing approaches typically focus on either frequency-domain decomposition or time-domain pattern extraction in isolation, neglecting their joint structure. This decoupled modeling limits representation expressiveness and undermines performance in tasks requiring simultaneous temporal and spectral reasoning. To address this gap, we propose m-WCN, a novel end-to-end deep learning framework that neuralizes multi-wavelet decomposition for joint extraction of temporal patterns and frequency components. By approximating the classical GHM multi-wavelet transform with trainable convolutional operators and enforcing orthogonality constraints, m-WCN produces interpretable multi-resolution representations. Built on this foundation, we introduce two task-specific architectures: TFBC for time series classification, which boosts discriminative features across frequency scales, and FTB for forecasting, which ensembles frequency-aware predictors. Extensive experiments on 64 UCR datasets and seven public forecasting benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Built on the neuralized m-WCN, our TFBC and FTB outperform various baseline models across diverse datasets, achieving average improvements of 19.97% in classification and 19.92% in forecasting tasks.

Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to make predictions from numerical time-series histories and textual events. Yet accuracy alone cannot reveal whether correct answers reflect effective integration of the two inputs or instead arise from event polarity, unimodal priors, or superficial cues. Likewise, plausible explanations may rationalize predictions without faithfully reflecting the evidence that drives model behavior. We introduce TimeLitmus, a diagnostic benchmark for cross-modal understanding and explanation faithfulness in event-conditioned time-series prediction. TimeLitmus contains 4,856 evaluation records across Finance and Traffic, combining natural prediction with controlled counterfactual and contrastive interventions, explanation-targeted faithfulness tests, and systematic shortcut controls. Across ten representative LLMs, standard prediction accuracy substantially overstates reliable cross-modal understanding: Hard Paired Contrast (HPC) pair correctness peaks at only 19.2% in Finance and 11.7% in Traffic, and all ten models show lower-than-expected consistency on Finance series-side controls. Models often recognize scenario relations explicitly yet fail to apply them during independent prediction. Explanation faithfulness shows a similar gap: in Traffic, most models cite the manipulated temporal factor in over 90% of cases, while behavioral support remains below 22%. Human annotators outperform LLMs on matched controlled and hard-pair diagnostics, confirming that these distinctions are recoverable from the inputs. Natural-only adaptation yields selective gains in evidence selection and input sensitivity, but not consistent gains in controlled or hard-pair behavior. The benchmark, evaluation suite, and supervised adaptation data will be released publicly.

Abstract: Web agents often revisit the same sites, yet most evaluations discard the procedures learned in earlier successful interactions. We introduce EconSkills, a skill library and evaluation framework that distills verified EconWebArena trajectories into parameterized standard operating procedures for retrieving live economic data. Each skill records its scope, navigation procedure, site-specific guidance, verification checks, and recovery steps while replacing source-instance values with placeholders. EconSkills separates two questions: whether a known relevant procedure transfers to a held-out task, and whether an agent can retain that benefit when selecting from a library. In controlled transfer, matched skills improve success over no-skill prompting and require fewer steps on paired successes, while abstraction is substantially more effective than replaying raw trajectories. At library scale, retrieval is competitive with the no-skill baseline overall and performs best on directly covered tasks; coverage-stratified outcomes show that approximate matches on uncovered tasks offset these gains. Browser trajectories further identify when procedural guidance shortens portal-specific navigation and when semantic verification remains necessary. These results establish that reusable economic web procedures can transfer across task instances and provide a concrete design target for coverage-aware selection and context delivery.

Abstract: This study proposes a Large Language Model-Driven Differential Evolution (LLMDE) algorithm to reduce the reliance on handcrafted hyperparameter design. The proposed algorithm leverages a prompt engineering strategy, allowing large language models (LLMs) to dynamically select mutation strategies and configure control parameters guided by optimization feedback, thus enhancing the performance of the DE algorithm. We evaluate the performance of LLMDE on the CEC2022 benchmark suite, comparing it with standard DE and representative metaheuristics. Furthermore, we employ factor analysis and K-means clustering for stock selection, and then apply LLMDE to solve the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) portfolio optimization problem using the selected stocks, subject to budget and minimum expected return constraints. Experimental results demonstrate that LLMDE achieves competitive performance on the benchmark suite while continuously generating high-quality solutions for complex constrained optimization tasks. These outcomes successfully demonstrate the viability of embedding LLMs within metaheuristics, paving a promising path toward the design of advanced LLM-assisted optimization techniques.

Abstract: The use of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) data is fundamental for modern corporate accountability, sustainability reporting, and financial decision-making. Embedding models have emerged as a powerful approach for transforming unstructured ESG text into numerical representations suitable for downstream natural language processing (NLP) tasks. However, their effectiveness in these ESG-specific tasks has not been systematically studied. In this paper, we construct a benchmark dataset specifically tailored to the ESG domain. We benchmark fourteen models, both open-source and closed-source embedding models, comparing their performance with respect to retrieval, and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). The results demonstrate performance variations across different models, with Qwen3-based models achieving the highest overall performance. This study provides practical insights into which models are better suited for ESG RAG tasks.

Abstract: Financial NLP systems produce probabilistic forecasts from news, reports, and filings. Prediction markets can aggregate these forecasts sequentially, but their fees must reward information without overcharging low-risk updates. Existing quadratic-fee mechanisms use a state-blind bound, while a local-curvature envelope remains conservative because it prices every trade at the largest permitted span. We introduce SpanPM, a prediction-market mechanism that sets the local-curvature multiplier from each trade's realized payoff spread. Its fee dominates exact Bregman exposure trade by trade, preserves no arbitrage, information incorporation, expressiveness, and bounded worst-case loss, and yields a tighter overcharge factor approaching one as trade span vanishes. Repeated global best responses converge to a common belief and become full Newton steps locally, giving quadratic rather than damped-linear convergence. We implement a deterministic bounded one-dimensional multi-basin search, audited against a dense grid. Across paired synthetic experiments, SpanPM improves 20-round consensus error by several orders of magnitude over a fixed-envelope local baseline under the same hard cap. With evolving beliefs, it preserves 96--97\% of the trader surplus achieved with exact Bregman fees while cutting excess fees by 94\% relative to the global quadratic mechanism. These results establish a trade-adaptive prediction-market mechanism for sequential aggregation of probabilistic financial forecasts.