financial data platform developers

Abstract: Communication between agents has mostly been studied on tasks with a shared objective and fast, clear feedback. Trading has neither: each agent manages its own account, with decisions being scored by markets late and noisily. A trading swarm is thus a population of independent decision-makers rather than a team, for which convergence is a risk and not the goal. We ran 200 agents from four model families in groups of ten under five communication regimes, from isolation to message boards and shared notes, over seven US trading days (1 to 9 October 2026), logging everything each agent read before every decision. In two of the four families, communicating groups came to hold far more of the same stocks than the isolated group. A group's return was largely the return on what its members held in common. Seeing a post from a groupmate made an agent 7 percentage points more likely to reuse an eight-word phrase from it. Agents that started too close together to see each other's posts shared such a phrase in 14% of cases, the rate that common inputs produce. Seeing the post did not detectably change that morning's trades. Case studies traced the adoption of positions and decision rules over subsequent days, and communicating groups sold in step more often than isolated ones. Because isolated groups also converged on the same stocks, sometimes completely, assessments of herding need to measure excess convergence relative to a no-peer baseline.

Abstract: Existing approaches to differential privacy in diffusion models rely on loose sensitivity bounds and isotropic Gaussian noise, leading to unnecessary estimation error. We develop a framework for the optimal privacy-utility tradeoff of ideal diffusion denoisers, replacing conservative bounds with exact sensitivity characterizations and provably optimal noise calibration. First, we show that worst-case sensitivity over datasets of arbitrary size can be characterized exactly using only two records. For a data domain of size $m$, this reduces the analysis to at most $m(m-1)$ constraints, regardless of dataset size. Our characterization can be arbitrarily tighter than conventional diameter-based sensitivity bounds, revealing potentially unbounded improvements in noise calibration. Second, we obtain exact privacy guarantees for Rényi, approximate, and Gaussian differential privacy, as well as mutual-information privacy for binary records, avoiding the looseness of previous generic privacy conversions. Finally, we show that the minimum achievable weighted mean-squared error can be computed through a semidefinite program and prove strong duality, providing certificates of global optimality.

Abstract: Multilingual encoders can exhibit reduced retrieval effectiveness when queries and relevant documents differ in language, despite strong same-language performance. We investigate whether Finnish and Swedish cross-lingual retrieval can improve while preserving an encoder's existing same-language performance and document index. We combine a query-only low-rank adapter, trained against frozen document embeddings, with deterministic routing based on query and index languages. Cross-language queries use the adapter, while same-language queries use the original encoder. SampoTron, our fine-tuned low-rank (LoRA) adapter alongwith the Nemotron-3-Embed-1B model, improves average retrieval quality across six English, Finnish, and Swedish directions from 0.241 to 0.291 in normalized discounted cumulative gain (nDCG) at rank ten, a 20.9% relative gain on a sampled financial benchmark. All six cross-lingual directions improve, and routing preserves the original same-language performance, including two full-corpus Finnish evaluations. The approach enables selective cross-language specialization with reusable document embedding vectors.

Abstract: Forecasting short-horizon mid-price movements from limit order book (LOB) data is central to algorithmic trading, yet most deep LOB forecasters are point predictors: they output a direction or a displacement, but never indicate which of their forecasts can be trusted. We introduce UQ-LOB, a lightweight, encoder-agnostic uncertainty quantification module that attaches to any pretrained LOB encoder and, in the spirit of attentive neural processes, conditions each forecast on a context set of recently completed windows whose outcomes are already realised. The UQ-regression variant outputs a calibrated Gaussian over the future tick displacement, while the UQ-classification variant outputs a categorical distribution over down/up/stationary. Both expose a scalar confidence (predicted signal-to-noise ratio or class probability) that supports selective prediction. On 5.2 billion LOB events across seven cryptocurrency assets and horizons of 5, 10 and 15 seconds, UQ-regression attains near-nominal 68% interval coverage, and restricting to the most confident 10% of predictions raises directional macro F1 by 0.11-0.15 for UQ-regression and 0.05-0.11 for UQ-classification, at every horizon. On large, economically meaningful moves, the tightest confidence tier reaches a directional F1 of 0.88 (down) and 0.83 (up) at the 5-second horizon.

Abstract: Cryptocurrency forecasting presents a distinctive combination of extreme cross-asset scale heterogeneity, non-stationary dynamics, and structural dependencies among Open, High, Low, and Close (OHLC) variables. We present CryptoL, a unified framework designed to address these challenges within multivariate time-series forecasting. CryptoL evaluates forecasting error in context-normalized coordinates within the RevIN pipeline, preventing inverse normalization from introducing an additional squared-scale weighting into the MSE objective. We formally characterize this effect through the empirical risk and parameter-gradient geometry, establishing the conditions under which large-scale assets can disproportionately influence shared-model optimization. Beyond loss-space normalization, CryptoL examines channel-independent and channel-dependent normalization for OHLC data, showing that a shared channel-dependent affine transformation preserves candle-order relations that independent channel transformations need not preserve. The framework further incorporates scale-adaptive numerical stabilization to reduce distortions caused by a fixed normalization constant across assets spanning many orders of magnitude, together with a soft feasibility loss that penalizes violations of the defining OHLC inequalities. Experiments across heterogeneous cryptocurrency assets evaluate these components through controlled ablations and demonstrate improvements in forecasting accuracy, training stability, and the frequency of financially valid OHLC predictions relative to the considered baselines. CryptoL therefore provides an integrated approach to scale-balanced optimization, structure-preserving normalization, numerical stabilization, and constraint-aware cryptocurrency forecasting.