environmental monitoring agencies

Abstract: Earth surface anomalies, driven by escalating climate change, and expanding human activities, are increasing in both frequency and diversity, yet their limited historical data and unpredictability make them fundamentally different from conventional remote sensing targets. Existing methods address specific anomaly categories or stop at localization, leaving a gap between detection and actionable information. Here we present ESIA, an Earth Surface Immune System whose architecture is constrained by three principles from the biological immune system, refined over millions of years against equally diverse and uncertain threats. A non-specific innate immune stage treats anomalies as unobserved changes in time-series satellite imagery, generating binary localization maps at 14.51 km2/s without assuming any anomaly category, surpassing the strongest general baseline by 37% in F1. A specific adaptive immune stage applies negative selection to filter text prompts and matches surviving prompts with localized image patches through a multi-modal foundation model, enabling open-vocabulary recognition of unknown anomaly attributes including category, affected area, and damage severity, with recognition F1 exceeding 80%. A mutation mechanism tunes minimal embeddings at test time, adapting to each scene in 3.26s using a single reference image pair. We validate ESIA on a global-scale dataset covering 19,801.60 km2 across six anomaly categories, comparing against 22 models, and further apply it to quantify degraded farmland in the Dnipro Delta following the Kakhovka Dam collapse and assess burn severity from 2025 Palisades Fire in Los Angeles. This unprecedented flexibility in handling unknown anomalies opens new avenues for real-time disaster response and environmental surveillance.

Abstract: Sea-ice stage of development (SoD) describes the age and associated thickness of sea ice and provides important information for navigation, and operational ice monitoring. SoD labels are obtained from operational ice charts, where trained analysts interpret satellite observations and assign standardized stage codes to regions with similar ice conditions. These codes often represent ranges of compatible ice thicknesses rather than exact physical values. Deep-learning methods can automate SoD mapping and commonly adopt operational ice charts as reference labels for training. These annotations are not exact, however; this is because chart interpretation relies on analyst judgement and on the observations available at the time, so different ice services may assign different SoD labels to the same conditions. We term this variation across independently produced expert annotations multi-annotator label uncertainty; collapsing the annotations into a single deterministic target discards this variation. A second source of uncertainty originates in the learned model itself. In this paper, we quantify both sources: annotation uncertainty from disagreement among independent ice-service charts and model uncertainty from the learned predictive models. We then evaluate their relationship by testing whether model uncertainty is higher where ice services disagree. We observe that supervision incorporating information from multiple annotators can improve this correspondence, with soft supervision achieving the highest overall correlation of 0.256. The relationship becomes substantially stronger near the ice edge, where model predictive uncertainty closely tracks multi-annotator disagreement, reaching a correlation of 0.704 within 0--10 km. Among the uncertainty-estimation approaches, Monte Carlo dropout provides the best-calibrated confidence estimates, with an expected calibration error of 0.050.