environmental modelers

Abstract: Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) build neural representations of time-dependent PDE solutions, naturally incorporating physics knowledge and observational data, which makes them well suited to both forward and inverse PDE problems. PINNs, however, are known to suffer from spectral bias and lack of causality. Neuro-Spectral Architectures (NeuSA), a recently proposed alternative to PINNs, mitigate both issues, but their numerical integration becomes unstable for stiff differential equations arising in many relevant physical problems. This study proposes Neuro-Spectral Exponential Time Differencing Architectures (NEXT), which combines the spectral representation of the PDE solution in NeuSA with high-order exponential integrators. Within this approach, the linear stiff part of the vector field induced by the PDE is integrated exactly through matrix exponentials, while the possibly nonlinear remainder is modeled by a neural network. The effectiveness of NEXT is verified through benchmark experiments on a set of stiff PDEs, in which NEXT is stable and accurate while NeuSA diverges numerically. It is also shown that NEXT can be applied to inverse problems, where the model has to learn unknown parameters or boundary conditions from sparse data. All code used in this work is publicly available at: https://github.com/marcioh2m/next.git .

Abstract: This paper introduces a novel algorithm for predicting conditional joint distributions of vector-valued targets in stochastic systems whose randomness is intrinsic rather than arising from observation errors or additive noise. Multivariate quantile regression also involves modeling conditional joint distributions but represents a less challenging task. It predicts the probability that vector-valued targets fall within predefined regions, identifies regions corresponding to predefined probability levels, or performs both tasks simultaneously. The proposed identification technique employs ensembles of Kolmogorov--Arnold networks (KANs) as flexible function approximators. Although the suggested technique is not theoretically restricted to KANs, KANs are particularly well suited to the proposed construction and are therefore used throughout this study. In addition to the training procedure, this work introduces a new discrepancy measure for joint distributions and a goodness-of-fit (GoF) test based on it. This GoF test was initially developed to validate and calibrate the proposed identification technique and is used here in an ad hoc manner. Although the test could be tabulated for broader use, such a tabulation is not pursued in this work. The test is also applicable more generally.

Abstract: Time series forecasting has seen signicant advancements with the emergence of new deep learning models. However, forecasting time series in applications involving physical processes remains a major challenge. Despite the apparition of Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINN), recent models do not estimate unobservable intermediate physical variables, which are important for domain experts to understand the target behavior. To this end, we propose a Physics Informed Recurrent Neural Network (PIRNN) which predicts, along the target, unobservable variables on both historic data and forecast target. This approach enhances the model robustness and results interpretation using domain knowledge. Our method is easily adaptable to any physical model using several equations, each having its own set of unobservable variables, to describe it-self. As a case study, we incorporate physical equations used for groundwater levels predictions by the physical model called Gardenia. This model uses transfers equations between reservoirs, optimized with data assimilation, to simulate the evolution of groundwater levels. Evaluation includes several well known neural network models and the Gardenia model compared on twelve real world datasets. In addition, we study the impact of each component through an ablation study. Our model outperforms other models on ve out of the twelve datasets and our ablation study underlines the importance of having a physical background in our time series forecasting task. Finally, the coherence of the physical variables predicted by our neural network is assessed by a domain expert.

Abstract: Estimating temporal soil-loss change is challenging when physically meaningful input factors are noisy or corrupted, particularly because substantial changes are rare relative to the large number of locations exhibiting little change. We study this problem through the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and introduce PhyRestore, a physics-structured latent-factor restoration framework. Rather than directly predicting soil-loss change or correcting a degraded physical estimate, PhyRestore restores corrupted physical factors and reconstructs temporal change through the known physical relationship. We evaluate PhyRestore in a watershed-scale bitemporal raster setting under isolated and simultaneous corruption of rainfall erosivity and cover management, comparing it with the degraded RUSLE estimate and Direct RF, XGBoost, MLP, and CNN models. Factor restoration improves high-magnitude recovery when the corrupted factors remain identifiable, but its advantage weakens under joint corruption, sparse positive extremes, and factor values outside the training support.

Abstract: Accurate prediction of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture is important for assessing environmental impacts and supporting sustainable farming. However, prediction remains difficult because N2O emissions result from complex interactions among soil properties, climate, biochemical processes, and management practices, while high-quality observations are limited. Deep learning models can capture nonlinear relationships but often lack physical interpretability and may generalize poorly across environmental conditions. We propose the Knowledge-enhanced Agriculture-informed Neural Network (KAINN), a hybrid neural-mechanistic framework that extends the Agriculture-informed Neural Network by incorporating domain knowledge about fertilizer diffusion, soil respiration, and water-filled porosity. We evaluate KAINN using CNN, LSTM, and Transformer architectures across multiple growing seasons and input-feature configurations. The results show that KAINN generally provides lower root mean square error and mean absolute error and higher R-squared values than purely data-driven models and the original AINN. Analysis of the learned interfaces also shows smoother and more physically consistent parameter trajectories with reduced uncertainty. These findings demonstrate that incorporating environmental knowledge into neural networks can improve the reliability, interpretability, and generalization of agricultural N2O-emission predictions.