environmental model developers

Abstract: Atmospheric chemical mechanisms are commonly distributed in the language of the Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP), which generates efficient Fortran or C code but does not fit into the differentiable programming frameworks in which machine-learning models are developed. We present KPPax, a kinetic preprocessor that generates differentiable, just-in-time compiled, and vectorisable chemistry code in JAX from mechanisms written in the KPP language. KPPax evaluates the rate law with sparse operations in log space, which keeps it differentiable, and integrates the stiff system with the implicit solvers and the forward- and reverse-mode adjoints of the \texttt{diffrax} library, so that exact sensitivities are obtained without hand-derived adjoint code. We demonstrate two applications with the POLLU benchmark mechanism. In the first, the Fisher information matrix computed from an automatically differentiated Jacobian predicts, before any fit, which of the 25 rate coefficients a flow-tube-like design can identify, and noisy synthetic estimation confirms the predicted uncertainties of the nine identifiable rate coefficients to within about 30\% while revealing clusters of fast reactions of which only ratios are constrained. In the second, a neural-network correction of an emission inventory is trained offline on per-scenario 4D-Var retrievals and then fine-tuned online through the chemical model, which reduces the error of the biogenic correction by a factor of 2.4--5 and recovers information on low-temperature emissions that the individual retrievals lose. KPPax makes KPP mechanisms directly usable for parameter estimation and hybrid physics--machine-learning modelling.

Abstract: Hybrid forecasting systems combining machine learning and numerical weather prediction offer a promising route toward improved forecast skill while preserving physical consistency. In this study, we investigate online learning of state-dependent model-error corrections within the Integrated Forecasting System using 4D-Var. Building on previous work, we represent model error using a neural network embedded within the forecast model and trained from observations through the data assimilation cycle. First, we introduce a targeted variant of neural-network 4D-Var in which only the neural-network parameters are estimated, while the atmospheric state is provided by a precomputed analysis. We then propose a batched extension that processes assimilation windows in random order and averages parameter increments over multiple windows, drawing inspiration from mini-batch stochastic optimization. Experiments are conducted with the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts at an intermediate resolution. Sequential online learning substantially improves forecasts within the training period, with error reductions exceeding 10%in some cases. However, these improvements fail to generalize to unseen data. In contrast, the proposed batched formulation produces hybrid models that consistently improve forecast skill in out-of-sample experiments. Larger batch sizes accelerate convergence and improve robustness by reducing the noise of parameter updates. Diagnostics further show that the online-trained corrections preserve realistic forecast variability and do not improve skill through artificial smoothing. These results demonstrate that the formulation of the online learning problem is critical for generalisation and establish batched online training as a promising framework for hybrid machine-learning/data-assimilation systems.