environmental consulting firms

Abstract: The ecological insurance theory posits that diverse forests are more resilient and better able to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Increasing drought and heat stress in Central Europe promotes mixed forests for maintaining ecosystem services. However, a diverse species distribution complicates remote sensing-based species mapping, as distinguishing pure from mixed species compositions at the pixel level remains challenging. We evaluated the potential of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for tree-species classification from Sentinel-2 time series and investigated the spectral-temporal features underlying class discrimination, with particular emphasis on separating pure from mixed Norway spruce pixels. We compared RNN classification models with Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and used Integrated Gradients (IG) to quantify feature attributions across spectral bands and time. The best-performing RNN achieved a Macro-F1 score of 0.851 on the test data, outperforming XGBoost by 0.012 and Random Forest by 0.103. Beyond classification performance, the attribution analysis revealed distinct spectral-temporal patterns associated with the separation of pure and mixed Norway spruce pixels. Attribution values increased particularly after approximately day of year (DOY) 125, while B11 showed the strongest contribution during periods of increasing spectral divergence between the two classes. These findings show that recurrent models can provide competitive classification performance while also revealing the phenological periods and spectral regions that are most relevant for distinguishing closely related forest compositions. Combining time-series classification with explainability therefore provides additional insight into the spectral-temporal mechanisms underlying tree-species discrimination and may support more detailed mapping of mixed forest structures.

Abstract: Open-set insect species recognition faces significant challenges when deployed in real-world biodiversity scenarios, particularly when encountering unknown species that are visually close to known training classes. Unlike generic out-of-distribution samples, fine-grained unknown insects are often not visually anomalous. They instead tend to appear near the decision boundary of specific known species, leading to unreliable closed-set predictions. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{Class-conditioned Unknown Boundary Evidence (CUBE)}, a novel evidence-based framework that models unknownness around each known species rather than as a single global unknown class. Our key idea is to evaluate a test sample relative to the known species it most closely resembles, enabling local rejection for visually confusable unknown insects. CUBE learns class-conditioned boundary evidence from auxiliary species, preserves auxiliary species as shadow references during inference, and incorporates taxonomic candidate calibration to verify biological plausibility. When ecological metadata is available, we further introduce CUBE-E, which adds a lightweight location-consistency term without modifying the visual backbone. Experiments on the Open-Insect C-America benchmark show that CUBE achieves superior performance, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines with 95.8\%, 98.7\%, and 99.1\% AUROC on local, non-local, and non-moth unknown splits, respectively, while maintaining 94.9\% closed-set accuracy. With ecological metadata, CUBE-E further improves the results to 96.0\%, 99.7\%, and 99.5\% AUROC with 95.2\% closed-set accuracy.

Abstract: We increasingly use machine learning to label scientific datasets. The models we develop and deploy are improving all the time, but they are not and will likely never be perfect. Mistakes matter, as errors can propagate into our scientific understanding, particularly when systematically biased. Very reasonably, scientists thus review substantial proportions of ML-generated labels to verify or correct mistakes in pursuit of ensuring their scientific findings are not biased by ML. In this work, we focus on helping scientists optimally allocate this reviewing effort relative to their scientific goals. We focus on a specific class of scientists (ecologists) and a specific, widespread, and impactful modeling target (occupancy modeling, which estimates where species are likely to occur, conditioned on environmental factors). We introduce Active Continuous-Score Occupancy Modeling (ACORN), a method that incorporates ML predictions into occupancy models and strategically selects samples for expert review that are maximally informative for downstream ecological analysis. Across camera-trap and bioacoustic datasets, our method recovers ecological conclusions close to those obtained from fully human-labeled data, while requiring substantially fewer expert reviews than non-targeted review policies. Our results suggest that ML-assisted scientific workflows should optimize expert effort for downstream inference, rather than for classifier accuracy alone, especially when human review budget is limited. Our code is available at https://github.com/timmh/acorn

Abstract: Greenhouse gas emissions estimates can be derived using inverse methods by combining atmospheric concentration observations with chemical transport models. The latter traditionally use physics-driven simulators such as Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Models (LPDMs), which are expensive to run and do not scale well to modern satellites' high resolution data. Previously we developed a performant atmospheric transport emulator that approximates LPDM outputs ("footprints") over South America ~1,000X faster than the UK Met Office's LPDM. Expanding towards global emulation is not straightforward, as atmospheric transport is regionally heterogeneous. This paper evaluates spatial transferability capabilities of models across four world regions: South America, East Asia, South Asia, North Africa using both region-specific and multi-region models, and leave-one-region-out experiments. Regional differences are characterised in the context of input variable and output footprint distributions. This work builds intuition in cross-region generalisation and transfer learning, aiding regional performance towards efficient global emissions estimates.

Abstract: Geospatial foundation models provide reusable representations of satellite imagery that support downstream mapping with limited task-specific modelling. We evaluate whether annual AlphaEarth embeddings support binary cultivated-versus-non-cultivated mapping in Maine, USA, using 192 spatially separated patches and labels derived from the USDA Cropland Data Layer (CDL). Without fine-tuning the foundation model, a lightweight classifier reaches 93.7% overall accuracy and 90.8% balanced accuracy on held-out patches. Logistic regression is within 0.3 percentage points of a gradient-boosted ensemble, while a nearest-class-centroid rule, which uses class centroids but fits no parameters, reaches 90.2%. A balanced sample of 60,000 labelled pixels is within 1.3 percentage points of the full pool of 8.6 million pixels; because pixels are spatially autocorrelated, this result concerns pixel-sample efficiency rather than 60,000 independent annotation sites. In a same-region transfer experiment, classifiers trained in one year remain accurate across 2018 to 2023. Against a blind, two-interpreter consensus at 385 randomly sampled points in one contiguous 2023 block, the AlphaEarth-plus-random-forest map agrees at 95.3% ($κ=0.82$), compared with 91.7% for the CDL ($κ=0.72$; exact two-sided McNemar $p=0.0161$). This local result is consistent with partial smoothing of CDL label noise, but it does not establish statewide correction of the reference product. On the same points, the difference from a fine-tuned TerraMind segmentation model is not statistically significant (95.3% versus 93.5%; $p=0.14$), and the experiment is not a controlled comparison of computational cost. These results support frozen geospatial embeddings as a low-compute candidate for regional cropland mapping, subject to the limits of a single-state study, a 30 m-derived training reference, and a one-block human validation.