energy grid software developers

Abstract: For distribution system operators, short-term load forecasting (STLF) supports congestion management, voltage control, and asset protection. Most existing approaches focus on overall accuracy across all time steps and neglect performance during high-demand (HD) periods, where larger forecast errors can increase the risk of congestion and voltage violations. In this paper, we study peak-aware STLF across three operator-relevant distribution grid aggregation levels, area codes (AC), secondary substations (SUB), and low-voltage (LV) feeders, using open datasets from the United Kingdom and Switzerland. We compare statistical baselines, machine learning models (LightGBM and XGBoost), and recent time-series foundation models (Chronos Bolt and Chronos-2) under a peak-aware evaluation framework that reports both overall and HD forecasting performance using NMAE and MAPE. The results show that Chronos-2 achieves the best HD performance across all aggregation levels, with HD-NMAE and HD-MAPE of 0.039 and 4.53% at AC, 0.080 and 9.45% at SUB, and 0.138 and 16.14% at LV, while Chronos-Bolt consistently ranks second best. Compared with the gradient boosted ML models, Chronos-2 reduces mean HD-NMAE by about 20-51% across levels while remaining best or near-best on the overall metrics. A quantile analysis of the probabilistic Chronos outputs further identifies aggregation-specific operating points, and runtime measurements indicate that foundation model inference is fast enough for practical deployment. Overall, the findings highlight peak-aware evaluation and aggregation specific quantile selection as a practical pathway toward more operationally relevant STLF in distribution networks.

Abstract: Power Flow (PF), Optimal Power Flow (OPF), and State Estimation (SE) are fundamental problems in power system analysis, but solving them is computationally expensive. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been proposed as fast surrogates, yet existing solvers are trained for a single problem at a time, producing narrow models that must be rebuilt for each new task. We propose a more general approach: a single Heterogeneous Residual Gated Graph Convolutional Network that solves all three problems with one shared backbone. Rather than learning one mapping, the model learns a reusable representation of how the network behaves, from which PF, OPF, and SE can each be estimated. Trained jointly on the three problems across diverse topologies and loading conditions, and evaluated on the IEEE 14-bus and 118-bus systems, the shared model matches the accuracy of task-specific GNN solvers and stays robust on unseen loading levels and topologies. These results show that a single model can capture the basic operation of a power network and serve several analysis tasks at once, a first step toward a foundation model for power systems.

Abstract: Learning-based surrogates for AC optimal power flow (ACOPF) promise large speedups over classical solvers, but their operational value depends on physical feasibility as much as predictive accuracy. Physics-aware objectives such as the augmented Lagrangian (AL) improve constraint satisfaction at additional per-step cost, yet how this trade-off behaves with scale is uncharacterized. We sweep model and dataset sizes under both MSE and AL training, and characterize how constraint violation changes with network size across grids. Both objectives improve as power laws, but at different rates: MSE is governed primarily by model capacity, while AL is balanced across both. Violation grows roughly twice as fast with network size under MSE as under AL. On matched hardware, AL reduces violation by nearly $30\times$ for an order of magnitude more training time, with negligible added memory. The training objective determines not only where a surrogate lands but how its quality evolves with scale.