emergency management teams

Abstract: Atmospheric fronts are associated with much of the high-impact weather in the mid-latitudes, yet their identification and classification remain largely manual and subjective. Existing deep learning approaches rely primarily on gridded reanalysis or forecast data, limiting their applicability to satellite observations available for time-critical applications. We introduce SATFRONT, a machine learning framework for detecting cold, warm, and occluded fronts over Europe from geostationary satellite observations, with reanalysis data as an optional additional input. The model is trained on frontal analyses from five European national meteorological services and evaluated against UK Met Office analyses for 2024. Using satellite observations alone, SATFRONT achieves a Critical Success Index (CSI) of 0.428 at a 150 km tolerance, within the range of agreement between analyses from different meteorological services (0.277-0.501) and higher than that of an operational rule-based front detector that uses satellite data (0.133). Adding ERA5 reanalysis increases the CSI to 0.591. ERA5 substantially improves the placement of individual fronts, although its effect on their annual spatial distribution varies by front type. These results demonstrate that cold, warm, and occluded fronts can be detected directly from geostationary satellite observations, providing a basis for automated frontal analyses at the high temporal frequency required for time-critical applications.

Abstract: The CLARKE building and road damage assessment AI classifier was incorporated into the Catastrophic Unmanned Remote Sensing Exercise (CURSE) 2026, which trained 23 small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) teams from state and local agencies and non-governmental organizations in Florida and Missouri on how to collect imagery for an incident command Remote Sensing Cell. Although CLARKE has been operationally deployed to two hurricanes (Debby and Helene), CURSE'26 presented an opportunity to evaluate the machine learning model with a larger set of never-before-seen orthomosaics. The results show that building and road damage assessment together ran in 3.5 minutes on average, and that building damage assessment achieved a Micro F1 of 0.834 with no manual adjustments to correct spatial misalignment and delivered that performance in both Florida and Missouri, demonstrating good geographic transfer. It also showed that road damage assessment performed poorly due to sensitivity to misalignment between road maps and the images, and to lighting and environmental conditions in an urban setting. The analysis of CURSE'26 presents five other findings of value to the sUAS community: that the use of sUAS and machine learning is now operationally normalized and accepted, sUAS teams in the field can improve classification accuracy by timing their flights, exercises are good operational tests but their value for evaluating learning models is less clear, edge computing is needed to overcome the wireless upload barrier, and the application of sUAS and AI to disaster response has ethical and legal ramifications for pilots and data managers.

Abstract: In this work we present a probabilistic model for predicting the temporal evolution of wildfire size using conditional generative algorithms, namely flow matching. Rather than predicting spatially resolved fire progression, the proposed model forecasts a time series of fire acreage, substantially reducing computational cost and enabling efficient integration with downstream applications such as early warning systems and risk assessment tools. Given estimates of the fire size at the current and previous forecasting steps, alongside spatially averaged weather conditions, terrain characteristics, and fuel composition, the model predicts the change in fire area over a 3-hour interval. Training data are drawn from 140 coupled atmosphere-wildfire simulations generated using WRF-SFIRE, paired with weather data from the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the model captures physically-consistent responses to variations in wind speed, temperature, and relative humidity. Model performance is evaluated against reference solutions from WRF-SFIRE. For single-step predictions, the model achieves a symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) of 0.39 relative to the reference WRF-SFIRE solutions. Recursive multi-step predictions over 24 hours are performed for 12 held-out test cases, where the flow matching model achieves a final fire area sMAPE of 0.39 while further providing meaningful quantification of forecast uncertainty.

Abstract: Crowdsourced disaster imagery provides timely, ground-level observations when conventional disaster mapping is delayed or incomplete, yet its geographic value depends on where observations are produced, how they are interpreted, and whether they can be reliably located as actionable Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT). Using more than a decade of PhotoMappers, a crowdsourced disaster-mapping initiative, this study examines the changing geography of disaster information and asks how emerging GeoAI models compare with human geographic interpretation. We combine longitudinal spatial analysis with cross-view geolocalization using street view imagery (SVI) and remote sensing imagery (RSI), and evaluate vision-language models (VLMs) reasoning through 30 indicators spanning geographic cues and reasoning evidence. The results reveal a geographically and temporally uneven archive shaped by changing disaster types, Community Lifelines, and operational priorities. Integrating VGI, SVI, and RSI with Sinkhorn re-ranking achieves 40.90% R@1, 61.10% R@5, and 69.45% R@10, while yearly R@1 varies markedly from 25.00% to 65.07%. Geographic reasoning is similarly uneven: Qwen3.6-27B achieves an overall agreement of 67% compared with 51% for InternVL3-8B, with both models showing greater difficulty with localized and place-specific evidence than broad spatial configurations. We argue that the value of GeoAI lies less in replacing volunteered geographic interpretation than in complementing it, scaling candidate retrieval while retaining human judgment for ambiguous and consequential cases. This provides a pathway toward more human-centered and responsible GeoAI for disaster mapping. All data and code are openly available at https://github.com/bobleegogogo/PhotoMappers-VLM.

Abstract: Emergency messaging such as extreme-weather reports and earthquake instructions can involve high stakes, to the extent that translation errors can lead to tragic consequences. The use of machine translation or generative artificial intelligence might therefore not be recommended. On the other hand, time savings in the initial translation can allow greater investments of resources in revision and authorization processes, as well as a wider range of target languages. An experiment with generative AI translations of an earthquake instruction text from English into Chinese and Spanish shows that use of discourse-specific prompts can considerably improve understandability and actionability, although the translations may still not be trusted by translators. Human revision is still required, not only to detect errors but also because of the ethical need for someone to take responsibility for any errors or delays in such messaging.

Abstract: Understanding and assessing natural hazards is essential for disaster preparedness and risk reduction. Recent advances in large language models have spurred growing interest in AI agents for hazard analysis, particularly their ability to integrate scientific data, models, and tools into automated workflows. However, effective automation requires agents to determine which scientific methods are appropriate for a given event and executable with the available data and tools. As new evidence and execution results become available, these conditions can change, requiring agents to reconsider their choices. We formulate this problem as state-dependent scientific route selection and introduce HazardWeaver. Specifically, HazardWeaver first leverages the Hazard Knowledge Compiler to extract evidence-linked conditions governing scientific applicability, then its Hazard Capability Graph represents executable scientific capabilities and checks compatibility between their inputs and outputs. Using these complementary representations, the Hazard Weaver Agent component selects applicable and executable routes, carries out their workflows, and revises its decisions as the analysis state changes. To evaluate both the scientific outputs and the decisions that produce them, we introduce the Hazard Weaver Benchmark, comprising 141 instances across seven single-hazard domains and four multi-hazard interaction classes. The benchmark accommodates multiple valid scientific routes and evaluates output correctness, route validity, and justified abstention. Extensive experiments on this benchmark show that HazardWeaver outperforms existing agent systems, with the largest gains on tasks with multiple eligible scientific routes. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/LabRAI/HazardWeaver.

Abstract: This paper presents the European Crisis Management Ontology (ECMO), a modular OWL-based ontology intended as a cross-sectoral reference for disaster risk reduction and response. ECMO is designed to be organised as a network of ontological modules. Among the modules, ECMO-CORE captures fundamental crisis management concepts such as hazard, event, exposure, impact, and response measure and uses ontology design patterns and the OWL2 punning technique to resolve ambiguities between hazard types and event manifestations. In addition, domain-specific modules are defined as in the case of the public health module aligned with SNOMED CT and ICD-11. To demonstrate the resource's utility, we used ECMO to represent the data of the Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources system of the Joint Research Centre to generate an end-to-end pipeline that populates an ECMO-compliant knowledge graph from unstructured epidemiological news. Initial results demonstrate that ECMO provides the formal guardrails necessary for consistent and unified knowledge representation and integration. The ontology is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20070268 and is released under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license.

Abstract: Emergency managers need to know where floodwater is, how deep it is, and how it will change over the coming hours across an entire river basin. During a flood, however, real-time measurements come from only a handful of stream gauges, and high-resolution hydrodynamic models are too costly to rerun each time new data arrive or to run as large ensembles. We present C-STRIDE, an observation-driven AI digital twin that turns short records from a few stream gauges, together with terrain and rainfall, into basin-wide maps of water depth and extends these predictions up to a day ahead. It is trained on simulations from a calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and needs no separate data-assimilation step. In the Des Plaines River basin near Chicago, six gauges inform predictions over 4.2 million 30-m grid cells. Terrain improves the predictions most, rainfall keeps errors from growing over longer horizons, and together they reduce errors by about 40% compared with gauge records alone. When future rainfall is known, errors remain near 15% one day ahead, compared with nearly 40% without rainfall. Given real instead of simulated gauge records, the model shifts its predictions toward the observed hydrographs at three of six gauges without retraining, and it runs about 150 times faster than the hydrodynamic model. These results show how sparse gauges, terrain, and rainfall can be combined into fast, continuously updated flood predictions, a step toward operational flood digital twins that still requires testing with real-time data and rainfall forecasts.

Abstract: Rapid intensification (RI) remains one of the most consequential and difficult aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. Although full-physics numerical weather prediction models can represent the processes governing RI, resolving storm-environment interactions remains computationally expensive, while purely data-driven approaches often lack physical interpretability. We present FAST-ML, a hybrid framework that bridges data-driven efficiency with physical constraints. A physically informed dual-stream neural parameterization ingests 3D ERA5 fields to diagnose ventilation controls---environmental wind shear and mid-level entropy deficit. By optimizing these parameters end-to-end through a differentiable FAST intensity model, this architecture establishes a robust new paradigm for observation-driven parameter optimization, ensuring storm evolution remains strictly governed by thermodynamic principles. By better capturing the storm's continuous intensity evolution, FAST-ML improves upon its physical baseline, reducing ensemble CRPS across forecast lead times, with a reduction of approximately 31% at 60 h and nearly halving the RI false alarm ratio without sacrificing detection skill. In a 100-member ensemble configuration, FAST-ML produces intensity forecasts comparable to FNV3 for selected storms under the evaluated input configurations. Furthermore, zero-shot tests on selected Eastern Pacific storms provide encouraging evidence of cross-basin transferability. FAST-ML provides a modular intensity forecasting framework that can be coupled with externally supplied storm tracks and environmental fields. It demonstrates that observation-driven parameter learning within physically constrained dynamics simultaneously enhances accuracy, interpretability, and computational efficiency.

Abstract: Disaster-risk-reduction archives describe hazard events in prose that databases such as EM-DAT (Delforge et al., 2025) cannot ingest directly. We present an LLM pipeline that generates candidate georeferenced event records using a controlled hazard vocabulary and fixed schema, retaining evidence for review. Applied to 10,000 documents from PreventionWeb, the knowledge hub managed by UNDRR, it produced 3,572 records from 1,913 documents across 24 hazard types and resolved 81% of location mentions to OpenStreetMap geometries. On 171 human-positive document windows from a stratified 217-document reference set, GPT-5 achieved 86.0% pooled attribute $F_1$, versus 44.2% for the spaCy-gazetteer baseline. Evaluation pools hazard families, location strings, and event years within documents, without assessing their assignment to individual events. GPT-5.4 ranked highest among ten LLMs (86.6% $F_1$). Verbatim evidence occurrence was 72.0% for GPT-5 and 47.2% for GPT-5.4, measuring textual traceability without establishing attribute support. We report production failure modes and automated label and location-rule compliance checks. Prompts, schema, and outputs will be released for adaptation to national reporting archives.

Abstract: We present IRENE (Italian Radar Ensemble Nowcasting Experiment), a deep learning model for probabilistic short-range precipitation nowcasting over the Italian domain at \SI{1}{km} spatial and 5 min temporal resolution. IRENE adopts an encoder--forecaster architecture built on multi-scale Convolutional Gated Recurrent Units (ConvGRUs), trained on the national radar composite produced by the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC). An importance-sampling scheme focuses training on precipitation-relevant events, while the almost-fair Continuous Ranked Probability Score (afCRPS) is adopted as the primary probabilistic loss function. Two additional training configurations are proposed: an adversarial (GAN) variant, IRENE-GAN, designed to improve the spatial sharpness of the generated forecasts, and a spectrally constrained variant, IRENE-GAN-RAPSD, in which the adversarial objective is complemented by an explicit penalty on the radially averaged power spectral density. The three configurations are evaluated against the stochastic extrapolation method STEPS and the pre-trained deep learning model DGMR. All IRENE configurations attain a lower Continuous Ranked Probability Score than both benchmarks at every lead time and rank histograms closer to uniformity, indicating better probabilistic skill and ensemble calibration. In terms of ensemble-mean mean absolute error the advantage is confined to the first 90 min, beyond which the strongly damped DGMR fields and, to a lesser extent, STEPS become competitive. Spectral analysis shows that the adversarial training removes the progressive loss of small-scale variance exhibited by IRENE, at the cost of an excess of fine-scale power at long lead times that the spectral penalty only partially controls.

Abstract: To address insufficient contextualization, weak generalization, and poor scenario adaptation in tourism meteorological services, we propose SmartWeatherAgent--a unified three-stage architecture integrating intent recognition, hazard prediction, and reasoning-enhanced generation. The system fuses rule-based methods with large language models to parse queries at multiple granularities and employs a LightGBM model enriched with highland-specific features (e.g., wind speed abruptness rate), achieving an F1-Macro score of 0.605 with 1.60 ms latency on high-wind, precipitation, and low-temperature events. A 12-round micro-step prompt self-optimization loop boosts the composite warning quality score S_final from 4.2 (B01) to 8.9 (B12, +112%). Key improvements include a sharp rise in B08 from data source citation (6.5 -> 8.5), sustained high performance in B10 via physical mechanism explanation, and a peak scientific rigor score of 9.2 in B12 through explicit uncertainty statements. The system autonomously generates structured warnings that integrate causal mechanisms, spatiotemporal evolution, quantitative evidence, regulatory references, and confidence statements--enhancing professional depth, logical rigor, and scientific soundness, and advancing meteorological services toward proactive perception, explainable decision-making, and intelligent agency.