earth system modelers

Abstract: Martian weather forecasting is important for future exploration, but atmospheric behaviour on Mars combines spatial, temporal, vertical, and dust-driven processes in ways that challenge current modelling and forecasting approaches. This paper introduces MaGMA (Martian Graph-based Multi-horizon Atmospheric Forecasting), a graph-based data engineering framework that transforms OpenMARS reanalysis fields into structured learning objects for Martian atmospheric forecasting. Local atmospheric patches are represented as graph nodes and linked through spatial neighbourhoods, temporal continuity, longer temporal dependencies, and dynamically similar atmospheric states. The model integrates recent atmospheric history, engineered physical descriptors, and vertical atmospheric information to support forecasting across multiple horizons. We evaluate MaGMA across five unseen Martian years, including regular years and a global dust storm year. In regular years, the model achieves overall R^2 values of approximately 0.73-0.85. For dust-column forecasting, it outperforms classical and deep temporal baselines in most year-horizon comparisons. During the global dust storm year, dust-column prediction remains strong at shorter horizons, with R^2 above 0.8 for the first two horizons, while broader multivariate performance declines. The results show that graph-based data engineering can create reusable and diagnostically useful representations for planetary atmospheric forecasting, while highlighting the need for better learning under rare extreme regimes and improved use of vertical atmospheric structure.

Abstract: Machine learning emulators have become essential for accelerating expensive Earth-system simulations, but most existing approaches remain passive forecasters: they reproduce simulator trajectories under prescribed forcings without an explicit interaction mechanism for user-specified interventions. This limits their use in interactive scientific workflows and Earth-system digital twins, where users often need to explore how a system would respond if selected state components were changed. We propose an action-conditioned world-modeling framework for Earth-system emulation that reformulates simulator trajectories as supervision for controllable state-transition learning. The key idea is transition-action pretraining: naturally observed state changes are treated as label-free action supervision, allowing the model to learn both prescribed dynamics and action-conditioned responses without manually annotated interventions. We further introduce masked response learning to infer unobserved variables under partial state edits and learn coupled system dependencies. We test this framework on ecosystem dynamics across six global regions and multiple stand ages. Experiments show that the model preserves competitive long-horizon emulation accuracy while enabling controllable structural interventions and coherent responses in coupled ecosystem-cycle variables. These results suggest a practical route from passive Earth-system emulators toward interactive, intervention-aware scientific surrogates.