Papers for
crypto trading teams
Papers whose findings have a practical use for this group, as judged from the abstract. Open a paper to read what it means in practice.
AI trading methods perform worse in real crypto markets than backtests suggest
Can AI Make Money in Crypto? Measuring the Gap from Backtests to Real Markets
Abstract: AI-based trading methods have rapidly evolved from machine learning and reinforcement learning to large language models (LLMs) and trading agents, yet their performance is still predominantly assessed through historical backtesting. Such evaluations provide limited evidence of whether a method can generalize to unseen future markets or whether its backtested performance can be sustained in realistic trading frictions (e.g., latency, slippage, liquidity constraints, and market impact). We present a unified benchmark that evaluates representative machine learning, reinforcement learning, LLM-based, and agent-based trading methods in cryptocurrency markets through three progressively more realistic stages: historical backtesting, prospective exchange-based paper trading, and real-money live trading. These stages jointly increase temporal realism by moving from historical to unseen future markets, and execution realism by moving from offline simulation toward live trading. This protocol enables us to quantify the backtest-to-realization gap, identify when performance begins to deteriorate, and compare how this gap differs across major classes of AI trading methods. We further provide a unified open-source system supporting all three evaluation stages, together with a public platform that continuously updates benchmark results. Code is available at https://github.com/Starlien95/Awesome-TradingAI.
Evage automates profitable blockchain trading strategies across chains
EVAGE: Autonomous MEV Generation and Adaptation via Multi-Agent Harness
Abstract: Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) has evolved into a major economic force in blockchain ecosystems, yet its capture is dominated by experienced teams, and both strategy design and implementation rely on manual expert work that scales poorly across heterogeneous protocols and chains. We present EVAGE, the first fully autonomous multi-agent framework for end-to-end MEV strategy generation and adaptation. Equipped with three specialized operation modes, it automatically discovers novel MEV variants, adapts execution logic across disparate protocols, and ports strategies between chains, including Layer-1 and Layer-2 networks. To avoid inference latency on the critical MEV execution path, EVAGE generates and refines MEV bot code offline rather than making real-time decisions directly. Under the coordination of an orchestrator agent, three specialized subagents collectively implement and repair the full MEV bot workflow via closed-loop diagnostics, eliminating human intervention while producing validated and deterministic Proof-of-Concept implementations. We evaluate EVAGE on over 1.5M blocks from each of Ethereum, Base, and BNB Smart Chain (BSC). On Ethereum, EVAGE uncovers five novel MEV strategy variants, yielding a profit increase of 1.02$\times$ to 15.97$\times$. It also successfully adapts 11 MEV strategies from CPMM to both CLMM and Balancer V2 and ports strategies from Ethereum to Base and BSC, all with less than 60 dollars in LLM token costs.