complex system analysts

Abstract: Computer-model calibration is usually undertaken in service of prediction, yet neither Bayesian Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) calibration nor amortized simulation-based inference is built to control the predictive error of the calibrated simulator. When parameters are weakly identified or the data-model discrepancy is misspecified, the simulator-output bands induced by a nominal posterior level can be far from nominal. We propose a two-layer framework that targets predictive miscoverage directly. First, a conditional flow-matching model learns an amortized posterior for the calibration parameters, trained on simulator outputs perturbed with Gaussian-process discrepancies of varying structure. Second, conformal risk control arranges posterior draws for the target observation into nested candidate sets and selects the smallest one whose fixed-rank pointwise bands attain a prescribed time-averaged miscoverage on a synthetic calibration sample. Under exchangeability of calibration and target observations, the bands control expected miscoverage in finite samples. In a synthetic benchmark, the proposed bands are roughly 20% the width of KOH-MCMC bands with miscoverage near the 10% target. In calibrating an age-structured SEIR model to the 2010 Malawi measles outbreak, they are again sharper and near-nominal, and the weeks they fail to cover coincide with the asymmetric epidemic decline, exposing structural inadequacy of the mechanistic model.

Abstract: Theories of how the brain processes information and returns intelligent outputs are numerous and often difficult to conclusively test. Here, we consider an approach grounded in informatics and algorithmic thermodynamics for how neural systems respond to different patterns of information in different ways, with a focus on the relationship between the information entropy of a signal and a new proposed quantity we term information enthalpy, which represents the internal resource of structured information within a system available to be used for predictions and other forms of work. To evaluate the capacity of the external signals to increase information enthalpy in the system, we introduce the information enthalpy potential (IEP) as a defined metric. We propose and implement a method for quantifying the amount of potential information enthalpy - the IEP - in a given signal across a range of example signals. We offer a conjecture of how information enthalpy may be treated by neural systems within a biological framework before showing how it may integrate and offer falsifiability to existing approaches such as the Free Energy Principle. This framework is also positioned in light of the role of neural criticality. Finally, we postulate a testable and falsifiable framework where the distinct mechanisms within each driver interact through a described n-body-inspired model to govern the "motion" of a neural system through a high dimensional state-space. Through these processes, it is proposed that these features form the most fundamental basis of the neural drivers that give rise to the complexity of adaptive behaviors that are commonly called: intelligence.