climate modeling teams

Abstract: We introduce EC-EarthFlow, a generative flow matching model that emulates simulations from the physical climate model EC-Earth3. The model is trained on transient simulations from EC-Earth3 (1950-2166, SSP2-4.5) to predict the day ahead temperature field from the previous days temperature as well as annual mean temperature. Predictions are made auto-regressively with rollout periods of between a month and an extended season. Using only this variable of interest, we are able to reproduce the daily variability, spatial patterns, annual cycle and long-term trend from EC-Earth3 at a substantially lower computational cost than the physical model. We demonstrate that EC-EarthFlow is stable for long inference periods, and that it can learn the physical relationships as simulated in EC-Earth3.

Abstract: Diffusion models are increasingly used as surrogates for expensive simulators in weather prediction, molecular dynamics, and materials design. In these models, computing the probability $p_0[E]$ of an event $E$ is difficult, especially when the event of interest is rare. A stable estimate using Monte Carlo becomes computationally intractable, requiring a growing sample size $\propto\!1/p_0[E]$ to compensate for an increasing rarity. In this paper, we present Diffusion Importance Sampling of Rare Events or DireSMC, a sequential Monte Carlo scheme that guides a population of weighted samples towards the rare event, giving access not only to samples but also to a calibrated estimate of its probability. We set up our guidance using an analytical relaxation of the event set, allowing the method to easily extend to a wide range of user-defined rare events. We validate our method on a toy problem with analytical solutions and on a score-based climate emulator, where we obtain accurate rare-event probabilities on a range of rarities from $10^{-3}$ to $10^{-5}$, achieving net speed-ups of $9\times$ to $1413\times$ over Monte Carlo.

Abstract: In scientific machine learning, physical fields governed by partial differential equations exhibit low-rank structure and scale invariance. When solving equations on coarse grids, missing information leads to the closure problem: modeling unresolved physics to recover lost dynamics. Although closure terms depend on grid resolution, they represent scale-invariant physical laws. A model truly learning physics should capture these mechanisms with low-rank parameterization rather than memorizing grid-specific patterns. Inspired by this, we propose the Scale-Invariant Neural Operator (SINO), which learns on normalized physical scales via a dual-branch architecture operating in spectral and spatial domains. SINO uses bottleneck MLPs to generate continuous convolution kernels, embedding an explicit low-rank inductive bias that concentrates more than 95 percent of variance in 2-3 modes, as validated by PCA across benchmarks, while drastically reducing parameters. This principled design yields 38 times steeper scaling law exponents than FNO, demonstrating superior parameter efficiency. We compare SINO with traditional models (U-Net, DeepONet), Transformer models (Transolver, Oformer, GK-Transformer), and frequency-domain models (FNO, AMFNO, UFNO) on closure problems spanning externally forced Burgers turbulence, decaying Burgers turbulence, KS turbulence, Kolmogorov-forced NS turbulence, and decaying NS turbulence. Experiments show SINO achieves 1.5-38 times error reduction and 2-23 times parameter efficiency over baselines, with superior scaling laws reflecting exceptional data efficiency from principled low-rank design. Code is available at https://github.com/AI4Science-WestlakeU/SINO.

Abstract: Modeling temporal dependence and uncertainty is central to forecasting with world models. The Visual Bayesian Regression World Model combines visual features, physical histories and known covariates through interpretable regression, within a modular architecture supporting trend, seasonal and cycle dynamics. Visual compression reduces representation dimension, while Bayesian variable selection reduces active regression dimension. Posterior prediction combines forecasts across predictor subsets using their posterior probabilities as weights and accounts for parameter uncertainty and future disturbances. The model forecasts joint visual--physical states recursively and physical targets directly. Across four forecasting tasks spanning object motion, vegetation greenness and solar power, ViBR-WM achieves lower mean overall physical-target error than Temporal Straightening, ConvLSTM, PredRNN and SimVP on every task. Repeated fitting and resampling support these overall gains.