biotech algorithm developers

Abstract: Background: Existing dementia risk scores rely on fixed, pre-selected features and linear models, or ignore bias from informative missingness in cohort data. Here we introduce the Istanbul Technical University Dementia Risk Score (ITU-DESC), an explainable machine-learning score for incident all-cause dementia that combines broad feature selection across roughly 8,000 candidate features with explicit control of missingness bias. Results: We studied approximately 500,000 UK Biobank participants with a median follow-up of 16.6 years. We withheld missingness patterns from the model using unconditional random hot-deck imputation. We stabilized feature selection by repeating BorutaSHAP-based feature selection with ten random-imputation seeds and selecting predictors chosen in at least eight of the ten seeds, which yielded 38 predictors. We trained a CatBoost gradient-boosted decision-tree model and evaluated it on a holdout test set of 50,041 participants. For all-cause incident dementia, ITU-DESC achieved an average precision of 0.138 (95% confidence interval 0.123-0.156) and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) of 0.853 (0.844-0.863), significantly outperforming other risk scores, including the strongest comparator, the UK Biobank Dementia Risk Prediction model (0.118 and 0.841). We identified dementia risk predictors absent from established scores, including leukocyte telomere length and liver enzymes. Conclusions: ITU-DESC is the first dementia risk score to combine broad feature selection with explicit control of missingness bias.

Abstract: Repairing scientific models from functional observations differs fundamentally from supervised prediction: feedback may certify a solution without revealing which structural correction is responsible. We study this setting for genome-scale metabolic model (GEM) repair, where multiple reaction edits can explain the same phenotypes and many apparently distinct edits correspond to the same biological mechanism. This many-to-one structure creates a hidden failure mode for conventional exploration: diversity in the output space need not translate into diversity of scientific hypotheses. We introduce QuotientPO, which collapses equivalent repairs into canonical mechanisms and optimizes exploration directly over the resulting quotient space. To make quotient exploration informative under finite rollouts, we derive a kernelized Rényi estimator that resolves graded crowding among distinct repair cores beyond coarse exact-match counts. On 2,212 held-out GEMs, QuotientPO improves Success@32 from 17.93% to 20.10% (+12.1% relative) while consistently increasing distinct successful-core discovery under the same sampling budget. These results establish quotient-space exploration as a principled approach to mechanism-level discovery under verifier-induced equivalence.